Thoughts on Current Summer market for ES - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures.io
futures io futures trading


Thoughts on Current Summer market for ES
Started: by KBH80 Views / Replies:1,022 / 17
Last Reply: Attachments:4

Welcome to futures io.

Welcome, Guest!

This forum was established to help traders (especially futures traders) by openly sharing indicators, strategies, methods, trading journals and discussing the psychology of trading.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading forums:
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive on our forums.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendor advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in openness and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, it is not something tangible you can download.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.


You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free and simple, and we will never resell your private information.

-- Big Mike

Reply
 4  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Thoughts on Current Summer market for ES

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, Tbonds
 
Posts: 23 since May 2016
Thanks: 444 given, 41 received

Thoughts on Current Summer market for ES

Hi All,

I am new to trading and have been watching the ES daily since Aug 31 2015. As I develop methods and work to tailor some of them to a variety of markets, I have read that the summer market tends to linger around an average of ~10 pts intraday (CME trading hours). I am not yet seeing that as the summer average (since memorial day of this year, 2016). I have calculated ~16 pt intraday moves since memorial day which is more conducive to most of my strategies.
I have already tailored these strategies to a higher volatile market as well, but not sure if they would work on a market consistently around 10 intraday points.
I have one strategy that is ready to employ live as the markets stand currently (as well as a higher volatile market), but I have restraints for entering a market with even less volatility and intraday movements than we are currently seeing. Any thoughts or comments on the current summer markets we are witnessing from traders who have witnessed a number of summer markets on the ES? Do the ES markets typically tend to make consistently low intraday movements more around 10 pts during the summer (with the exception of any big global news like China of last year)?

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to KBH80 for this post:
 
  #2 (permalink)
Quick Summary
Quick Summary Post

Quick Summary is created and edited by users like you... Add FAQ's, Links and other Relevant Information by clicking the edit button in the lower right hand corner of this message.

 
  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, Tbonds
 
Posts: 23 since May 2016
Thanks: 444 given, 41 received

16 pt Intraday move


for clarification, the ~16 pt intraday move I have calculated is an average intradaily move I have calculated since Memorial Day.

Reply With Quote
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Buenos Aires Argentina
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT, MT4, Sierra
Favorite Futures: S&P, Bonds, Crude, FX
 
Posts: 245 since Sep 2014
Thanks: 36 given, 230 received

Brexit votes don't come around every summer, nor are risk of Fed rate hikes with so much significance all that common either. So all and all, this is not a normal summer.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to MacroNinja for this post:
 
  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, Tbonds
 
Posts: 23 since May 2016
Thanks: 444 given, 41 received

Re: MacroNinja

Futures Edge on FIO

What value do you place on the webinars on FIO?

 
Thanks MacroNinja! Good to know!

Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 9,767 given, 25,413 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Here is a link to the main ES~S&P thread
https://futures.io/elite-circle/13452-elite-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis.html#post152675

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Inletcap for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,464 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 742 given, 7,525 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


KBH80 View Post
Hi All,

I am new to trading and have been watching the ES daily since Aug 31 2015. As I develop methods and work to tailor some of them to a variety of markets, I have read that the summer market tends to linger around an average of ~10 pts intraday (CME trading hours). I am not yet seeing that as the summer average (since memorial day of this year, 2016). I have calculated ~16 pt intraday moves since memorial day which is more conducive to most of my strategies.
I have already tailored these strategies to a higher volatile market as well, but not sure if they would work on a market consistently around 10 intraday points.
I have one strategy that is ready to employ live as the markets stand currently (as well as a higher volatile market), but I have restraints for entering a market with even less volatility and intraday movements than we are currently seeing. Any thoughts or comments on the current summer markets we are witnessing from traders who have witnessed a number of summer markets on the ES? Do the ES markets typically tend to make consistently low intraday movements more around 10 pts during the summer (with the exception of any big global news like China of last year)?

Last summer, there was barely any slowdown. So the slow down is not guaranteed.

But in a normal summer, the range can get way lower than 10 points. Smallest I can recall was 4.5 points.

The behavior is vastly different and the same strategies cannot be adjusted down IMO. You have to focus on playing the tight range. Best to do so using volume profile.

When summer comes, IF the ES slows down, so does everything else. You could switch to a higher volatility instrument - maybe 6E, Bund, NQ - those markets will be acting more like the "16 pt" ES that you are used to.

If it does slow down (and it has shown signs a few times in the past weeks), it'll be back to normal the week after labor day in the US.

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to DionysusToast for this post:
 
  #8 (permalink)
Elite Member
Denver, CO
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, Tbonds
 
Posts: 23 since May 2016
Thanks: 444 given, 41 received

Thanks InletCap and Dionysus Toast!

Thanks for the link InletCap!

Thanks for all the great information Dionysus Toast!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to KBH80 for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
Risk--->0 $--->∞
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: ZF, ZN, ZB, ES, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,345 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 3,728 given, 1,869 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Excel work....................


KBH80 View Post
Hi All,

I am new to trading and have been watching the ES daily since Aug 31 2015. As I develop methods and work to tailor some of them to a variety of markets, I have read that the summer market tends to linger around an average of ~10 pts intraday (CME trading hours). I am not yet seeing that as the summer average (since memorial day of this year, 2016). I have calculated ~16 pt intraday moves since memorial day which is more conducive to most of my strategies.
I have already tailored these strategies to a higher volatile market as well, but not sure if they would work on a market consistently around 10 intraday points.
I have one strategy that is ready to employ live as the markets stand currently (as well as a higher volatile market), but I have restraints for entering a market with even less volatility and intraday movements than we are currently seeing. Any thoughts or comments on the current summer markets we are witnessing from traders who have witnessed a number of summer markets on the ES? Do the ES markets typically tend to make consistently low intraday movements more around 10 pts during the summer (with the exception of any big global news like China of last year)?

I pulled RTH ES data into a study in Excel from 2/2011 til today. Using 2000 days which give me 1359 days the market was open. Took the avg range for summer 3 ways:
  1. June, July, August, September
  2. 3 Qtr
  3. 2015 3Qtr Only

Here are the findings...

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



If you would like the spreadsheet say the word.

Ron

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Blash for this post:
 
  #10 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kyoto, Japan
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: LiveVol
Broker/Data: TD, TW, IB, Saxo
Favorite Futures: UVXY, VXX, VIX, /VX
 
suko's Avatar
 
Posts: 826 since Oct 2013
Thanks: 622 given, 609 received


There are a couple of worrisome factors, as far as volatility.

One is the banks in Italy, and whether they can contain that.

The second is Chinese yuan devaluation, and how that ties into their corporate bond situation.

The volatility last summer was precipitated in part by China, and the same thing is brewing again.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to suko for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > > Thoughts on Current Summer market for ES

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

PTMC Protrader Platform First Look w/Sergey Sokolov

Elite only

Spring Grains Outlook w/Sean Lusk @ Walsh Trading

Elite only

FIO Video Journal Challenge featuring NinjaTrader ($2,000+ of prizes)

April

Process above all else w/Anthony Crudele @ Futures Radio Show

Elite only

Machine Learning - Quantitative Trading w/Martin Froehler @ Quantiacs

Elite only

Market Dynamics w/Peter Davies @ Jigsaw Trading

Elite only

Ask Me Anything w/Patrick Rooney @ Trading Technologies

Apr 18

Ask Me Anything w/FuturesTrader71

Apr 19

Machine Learning w/Kris Longmore

Elite only

Market Analysis w/Dave Forss

Apr 25

Introducing iSystems with Stage 5 Trading

Apr 27
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Need Current ES tick and volume data lyonsjw Traders Hideout 5 November 18th, 2013 08:09 AM
Current Thoughts on the old Break Even Move tderrick Psychology and Money Management 6 September 10th, 2013 06:50 AM
Fastest Brokers to use when scalping ES mini's- using ThinkorSwim now,thoughts??? Rad4633 Brokers and Data Feeds 16 April 15th, 2012 07:06 AM
15 Stocks That Will Drive the Market Up This Summer Quick Summary News and Current Events 1 July 1st, 2011 05:14 PM
Despite Summer Stock Blues, Market Pros Say Don't Panic Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 August 12th, 2010 04:20 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:14 AM.

no new posts
Page generated 2017-03-26 in 0.13 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.166.89.1