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My (incomplete) ES intraday trend trading system
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My (incomplete) ES intraday trend trading system

  #11 (permalink)
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JACKATK View Post

Can you elaborate on this more? Do you mean a great system is useless if you don't execute it perfectly/professionally?

Yes. I just wanted to convey that unless you have a fully automated system that churns out cash, you do need a system with an edge but its way more important that you are able to execute your edge. This has been discussed here at FIO many times so the following might sound redundant.

Over a period of time, while trying to find that perfect system, we go through the process of internalizing what we believe "works" multiple times. During this time, we develop our own dos and donts based on those beliefs. Most of the things that we believe to "work", especially in the beginning of this process ends up not being true when applied to the market. Trading paper money/SIM has its merits but the process I am talking about is when you are trading cash not SIM/paper. SIM vs Cash has been discussed at length so I wont get into that.

Then, we end up discarding one theory (system) after another in search of that perfect system. The longer this process continues, the more damage gets done because its easier to learn things (useful and otherwise) than it is to unlearn. The result is the we end up retaining a lot of what we exposed ourselves to during this process. Some people refer to this as "emotional damage". How fast an individual is able to recognize this and is able to filter out these techniques and accompanying behavior is important in my opinion because if you are manually executing a system, then I believe that trader psychology is the single most important aspect that makes or breaks a trader. I believe that no system will be executed exactly the same way by 2 different traders. Give 100 new traders a documented edge and 90 of them will fail to even execute it profitably.

Now, lets assume that you get through this phase, and are one of those few that recognize and filter out the flaws of your system and diligently work on marrying the system to your own personal behavioral patterns, then there is a real chance. This also becomes an iterative process when you repeat certain "mistakes" over and over constantly trying to do better "the next time". Most of us are not too kind to ourselves during this time. But the more time and the money you are able to set aside during this time, the more your chances are of getting to a point where this eventually becomes economically feasible.

Most of what I said is based on my own experience and of those that I have come across and work with today. Essentially, I believe there are these 2 loops that I described above that most of us go through - call it the system search loop and then the self search loop if you get past the first one. In my opinion it is important to get to and successfully navigate the self search loop.

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  #12 (permalink)
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An extremely helpful post, thank you!


Hulk View Post
But the more time and the money you are able to set aside during this time, the more your chances are of getting to a point where this eventually becomes economically feasible.

By this do you mean?.. If you are well funded (say $150k) you'll probably burn through 30-50% ironing out your flaws & weaknesses to reach consistency. Am I right?

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  #13 (permalink)
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JACKATK View Post
An extremely helpful post, thank you!



By this do you mean?.. If you are well funded (say $150k) you'll probably burn through 30-50% ironing out your flaws & weaknesses to reach consistency. Am I right?

Yes, we all lose money in the beginning. The better funded you are, the longer you will be able to stay at it. The more time you have, the more homework you will be able to do before the next round etc.

Also, wanted to mention that having a sustainable routine becomes important too. You want to get to a point where you can absorb the stress of trading and still be able to have a life afterwards. So work on a routine that supports that. Whatever routine or system you end up with needs to eventually be something you can trade every single day/time without creating a level of stress that you cannot handle.

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  #14 (permalink)
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Hulk View Post
Yes, we all lose money in the beginning. The better funded you are, the longer you will be able to stay at it. The more time you have, the more homework you will be able to do before the next round etc.

Also, wanted to mention that having a sustainable routine becomes important too. You want to get to a point where you can absorb the stress of trading and still be able to have a life afterwards. So work on a routine that supports that. Whatever routine or system you end up with needs to eventually be something you can trade every single day/time without creating a level of stress that you cannot handle.

Damn, I'm time rich cash poor

Yes, totally agree about routine... Entering everyday prepared and clear headed improves your chance of success tenfold

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  #15 (permalink)
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Hello

It looks like you are entering on breaks from consolidation. Bob Volman has a similar style of trading, if you are looking to read something. There's a long thread on Trade2Win about his style of trading and they post lots of marked up charts(Hindsight charts, but I think Volman marks them up).

I think @PandaWarrior trades this way as well. So you could check out his journals. He also had a journal about trading with a small account. They are worth a read.

Good luck with everything.

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  #16 (permalink)
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pludloe View Post
It looks like you are entering on breaks from consolidation.

That's a sexy way of describing my entry method... I like it!

Thanks for making me aware of Bob Volman and @PandaWarrior. I'm gonna search for their stuff now!

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  #17 (permalink)
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JACKATK View Post
That's a sexy way of describing my entry method... I like it!

Thanks for making me aware of Bob Volman and @PandaWarrior. I'm gonna search for their stuff now!

I'm gonna save you the trouble.

My journals are crap. Don't read them. I knew nothing and worse, didn't know I didn't know. The break out trading thing has merit. I would suggest you ONLY trade the with trend break outs. Figure out what defines the trend for you and trade that direction. Better yet, in a long trend, buy the bottom of the range and add to it on the break out. Opposite for shorts. Leave your stops alone.....

Trade either the NQ or move to the SPY or even spot forex. You MUST control your risk with smaller size given your small account. ES and CL traders will eat you for lunch and spit out the bones.

I wish I had started in forex....I would have spent a lot less time trying to figure out how to be right all the time so I didn't lose money. In futures, you are at the mercy of the big players, this is true in forex as well but at least you can trade in fractions of a dollar if you have to. The key is to have a large enough stop to be out of the danger zone while price wiggles around your entry area. In futures this could wipe you out in a couple of trade if you are wrong a lot. In forex or SPY, you can size down so small you have no chance of blowing an account if you are wrong about the trade....and you will be wrong many many many times....

I'm not a trading guru....but you could do much worse than by listening to me on this....you must learn to trade before you even think about trading with any kind of size....and SPY or forex is perfect to learn....boring yes but still valuable lessons to be learned there.

Someone said, you minimize risk on your entry but you maximize profit with your exit. The moral of the story is this, if you don't know where you are getting out, stay the hell out of the trade. You must have an exit planned before you put on the trade in the first place.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #18 (permalink)
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Hello PandaWarrior, thanks for your helpful post.


PandaWarrior View Post
Better yet, in a long trend, buy the bottom of the range and add to it on the break out. Opposite for shorts. Leave your stops alone.....

That's an intriguing idea... Something I will definitely put into practice when I've built up some confidence down the line. Also, on the topic of stops, thankfully that's never been one of my weak points, I never move my stop


PandaWarrior View Post
Trade either the NQ or move to the SPY or even spot forex. You MUST control your risk with smaller size given your small account. ES and CL traders will eat you for lunch and spit out the bones.

Yep, I've got my eye on the NQ to cut my teeth


PandaWarrior View Post
I wish I had started in forex....I would have spent a lot less time trying to figure out how to be right all the time so I didn't lose money. In futures, you are at the mercy of the big players, this is true in forex as well but at least you can trade in fractions of a dollar if you have to. The key is to have a large enough stop to be out of the danger zone while price wiggles around your entry area. In futures this could wipe you out in a couple of trade if you are wrong a lot. In forex or SPY, you can size down so small you have no chance of blowing an account if you are wrong about the trade....and you will be wrong many many many times....

I think I've got myself over the ''need to be right'' hump. My biggest obstacle at the moment is placing trades when bored. My way of getting over this is to monitor the first 3 hours of the day (9:30 to noon EST). If trending conditions don't develop in this time I'll call it a day.

The idea for my entries is breakouts of little congestion zones within a bigger consolidation in the direction of the trend. My good trades generally just take off without reversing so I have very tight stops (5 ticks) but yes of course I'm wrong a lot but I'm never losing much. I've decided while I'm gaining experience I only get one shot at any single trend idea. If I screw it up I screw it up... Live to fight another day. Later down the line I might add another trade in case I get whipsawed out on the first go but right now is about building strong discipline.


PandaWarrior View Post
I'm not a trading guru....but you could do much worse than by listening to me on this....you must learn to trade before you even think about trading with any kind of size....and SPY or forex is perfect to learn....boring yes but still valuable lessons to be learned there.

I'll only be trading 1 contract and sticking to the 1% rule. Again this is actually one of my stronger points


PandaWarrior View Post
Someone said, you minimize risk on your entry but you maximize profit with your exit. The moral of the story is this, if you don't know where you are getting out, stay the hell out of the trade. You must have an exit planned before you put on the trade in the first place.

Funnily enough this is the part of my plan I'm working on now (and I'm a bit stuck on) so any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. What's your current exit strategy? The rule is I definitely want to maximise gains. When I'm right I want to be right big (between 10 to 20 points)

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  #19 (permalink)
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Re: My (incomplete) ES intraday trend trading system

First of all, the idea that $7,500 is too small to trade with is not true. I have a friend who started with $1,000 trading forex. His account is now well into six figures. You just have to not go crazy. Take it slow, and let your account build up over time.

Second, I wouldn't start out trading the ES. First, it doesn't typically move a lot, so it's difficult to make any money trading only 1 lot - and I wouldn't suggest trading with anything but 1 lot to start. Use your profits to trade with - if you have $7,500, make double that, then you can pull your initial stake and trade with what you've made in the market.

Third, you *will* have losing trades and losing days. Don't let that stop you - if you've thoroughly tested your system, have faith that it will work, long-term.

Fourth, I'd start out with something a bit more volatile and easier to trade, like the NQ. I personally like the NQ, and a typical day is at least 50-70 ticks per contract. It's $5/tick, so if a trade gets away from you, a 10-tick loss is $50 instead of $125 on the ES. It's also nice in the fact that as your account grows, you can trade more contracts, multiplying your income.

Fifth, you have to believe in your system. Be able to articulate clearly why you're taking a trade. You also need to know your entry, stop loss, and target(s) *before* you get into the trade, and *never* move your stop - that's a really bad habit that's blown up more accounts than I can count.

Finally, don't listen to the ever-present nay-sayers that have nothing to do all day long than to sit on Internet forums and try to make themselves sound wise and knowledgeable by trashing every system out there.

My best advice.


Last edited by n7ekg; January 20th, 2017 at 10:50 PM.
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  #20 (permalink)
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Agree with the above. I started with $5000 and had no problems as long as your system works.

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