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Help for finding a good method to trade Futures
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Help for finding a good method to trade Futures

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
New York, New Jersey/USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
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masoud View Post
That is Completely True and I accept it 100% which most of this is me, BUT we have to have a good tools to follow. I mean an strategy and then inside that strategy look for making our self better. Do you agree? That is what I cannot find, Everyone claiming they have a wining strategy but most of them hiding the down part and when you find that down part it is too late, you have paid for their system and there is no return. That is why I am asking here, because I know there are some people here very experienced and want to hear their opinion about a system that they think is working well.

Thanks for your input.
Masoud

Sorry to tell you but you will not find a strategy for sale that will work in the long run. No-one with a truly successful strategy is going to sell it to you when they can trade it themselves and make a lot more money. Canned strategies and trading rooms on the internet are practically all scams or people taking advantage of naive newbie traders that do not want to do the work needed to become a successful traders themselves.

The best you can do is to learn everything you can about how the market works. The books and videos by Al Brooks are good starting points. Then armed with that knowledge you must figure out yourself a trading method that works for you and fits your individual personality and financial resources.

It seems to me you want to take the easy way and have someone hand you a successful strategy. Unfortunately that is not going to happen, you need to put in the time and effort to be successful. Most profitable traders take years to reach success and loose a lot of money actually trading to learn the markets.

Spending money on canned systems and trading rooms is a complete waste of money.

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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: The one I'm creating in the present....ES, ZF, ZN, ZB, FX pairs
 
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Seahn View Post
Sorry to tell you but you will not find a strategy for sale that will work in the long run. No-one with a truly successful strategy is going to sell it to you when they can trade it themselves and make a lot more money. Canned strategies and trading rooms on the internet are practically all scams or people taking advantage of naive newbie traders that do not want to do the work needed to become a successful traders themselves.

The best you can do is to learn everything you can about how the market works. The books and videos by Al Brooks are good starting points. Then armed with that knowledge you must figure out yourself a trading method that works for you and fits your individual personality and financial resources.

It seems to me you want to take the easy way and have someone hand you a successful strategy. Unfortunately that is not going to happen, you need to put in the time and effort to be successful. Most profitable traders take years to reach success and loose a lot of money actually trading to learn the markets.

Spending money on canned systems and trading rooms is a complete waste of money.

Hey @xplorer I think we both just liked this post The exact same second.......lol

Ron

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #23 (permalink)
Elite Member
canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: ninja
Favorite Futures: ES CL
 
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Seahn View Post
Sorry to tell you but you will not find a strategy for sale that will work in the long run. No-one with a truly successful strategy is going to sell it to you when they can trade it themselves and make a lot more money. Canned strategies and trading rooms on the internet are practically all scams or people taking advantage of naive newbie traders that do not want to do the work needed to become a successful traders themselves.

The best you can do is to learn everything you can about how the market works. The books and videos by Al Brooks are good starting points. Then armed with that knowledge you must figure out yourself a trading method that works for you and fits your individual personality and financial resources.

It seems to me you want to take the easy way and have someone hand you a successful strategy. Unfortunately that is not going to happen, you need to put in the time and effort to be successful. Most profitable traders take years to reach success and loose a lot of money actually trading to learn the markets.

Spending money on canned systems and trading rooms is a complete waste of money.

Thanks Seahn, Actually I am reading his books, your points are right.

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  #24 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: The one I'm creating in the present....ES, ZF, ZN, ZB, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,545 since Nov 2011
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masoud View Post
That is Completely True and I accept it 100% which most of this is me, BUT we have to have a good tools to follow. I mean an strategy and then inside that strategy look for making our self better. Do you agree? That is what I cannot find, Everyone claiming they have a wining strategy but most of them hiding the down part and when you find that down part it is too late, you have paid for their system and there is no return. That is why I am asking here, because I know there are some people here very experienced and want to hear their opinion about a system that they think is working well.

Thanks for your input.
Masoud

Completely agree. Had my fair share of shysters like Tom busby, for example, and people who could trade but not teach, IMHO. Eventually found someone I could trust to recommend a good source for education as well as finding some myself. Peter, @DionysusToast had a great impact on me, as an example.

I think a key piece to this trading puzzle is understanding how probabilities work. Any market edge will have as it's result a series of wins and losses. And it's completely impossible to know their sequence before hand. You could get 15 losers in a row and still have an awesome edge. Question is, can we handle the psychological issues that arise and still take the 16th edge without making a trading error. Like my problem hesitating before taking the edge and increasing my price risk but decreasing my information risk.

I made this to illustrate it to myself not to long ago....

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I sum it up for myself like this. The worse I feel before a trade, the better chance that trade has of being a winner.

Ron

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #25 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
melbourne, australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: cmc
Favorite Futures: indices
 
Posts: 24 since Mar 2016
Thanks: 2 given, 32 received


masoud View Post
Hello Guys,

I have been looking around and spending more than 30K on systems and soft wares to trade Futures, but It was not helpful, Still can not find any system or method with a profitable result, So I want to ask for the members opinion about this and see anyone has any suggestion about a room or method?
So I appreciate if you please help me and share your experience about any system or method that I can use?

Thank you so much for your help.
Masoud

My 2 cents in no particular order...

1. Select a market you want to trade.
2. Select a time frame that you are happy with and suits the market. (Faster markets might work better with shorter time frames as it can help with draw downs).
3. Work out your ref point vs price action. By that I mean you have to have a ref point to tell you if price is going up or down. This can be S/R, breakout, trend change, follow on etc. You need a ref point to compare price against. This may or may not involve an indicator of sorts.
4. Find something that repeats in the above.
5. Work out you entry also from the above.
6. Work out your expectation. (As a hint chasing the long running trades carries larger draw downs and possible disaster. Might be better to take more smaller trades but up to you. There are also less large trades)
7. You want a system that gives you a good frequency of opportunity. No good only have one signal a day because you might miss it. That also depends on what type of style you are looking for.
8. Work out your profit targets.
9. Work out what you will do if it all goes wrong and trust me at some point it will.
10. Understand what you are trading. Each market has a personality but very generally futures markets have an open session, some activity, a lunch time, afternoon session, closing. Mixed into that are random news events which will effect the market. You can get movement in any of the above.
11. Work out your position size and what gives you the most comfortable return.
12. Work out your reason for trading. Is it your sole source of income?
13. Be professional about what you do.
14. You will know when you have a good system because you will be able to easily teach it to someone else in all its detail.
15. Simple is best. If you are using numbers of indicators it will be difficult. The less things you use the less things that can go wrong.
16. Understand why you get into and out of the market. Avoid random entries or guessing because if you get a guess right it will play havoc with you.
17. If you are in Canada get a demo CMC account or the like and trade the demo. You will blow it up a couple of times. When you are consistent with that, live trade small amounts and build from there.
18. If you want to succeed you will. It just takes time and effort.
19. Most of what you read and see online does not really work. No one is really going to publish what does work.
20. I have been at this for 10 years and it is my only source of income so if that is your aim it is achievable.
21. Trading is isolating so be very wary of that.
22. There are probably other things but I am off for a bike ride. Important to keep your fitness up!!
23. Good luck!!
24. There is something in the about risk/reward but that is a given. Every time you enter the market there is risk. I personally tend not to worry to much about it now as I have confidence in the way I trade.
25. Do not worry about how many dollars you get. Focus on how many points you can get (consistently) then work out the position size to meet your objective.
26. Do not be greedy, be consistent.


Last edited by bbgg91; April 14th, 2016 at 09:55 PM.
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  #26 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
melbourne, australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: indices
 
Posts: 24 since Mar 2016
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27. For me, time frame independent systems that use the same rules tend to be more resilient. That is what I use as different markets require different time frames to trade.

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  #27 (permalink)
Order Flow Trader
Glasgow, Lanarkshire Scotland
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader & Jigsaw
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ZN, ES
 
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Best way to watch replay


Portland View Post
I'd second this. Mainly because this is how I learned. I easily went through 20,000+ hours of market replay and by trial and error got really good at scalping. And I can tell you this, the entry does not matter - the exit is by far the most important thing to figure out. You can seriously take random trades and be profitable if you just learn how to manage a trade by moving your stop and target around depending on what the market does next. So experiment. Try big targets, small targets, big stops, small stops, and think about the trade-offs that are inherently tied to both styles of management. Learn to think of everything in terms of odds. During a trade I'll observe how the odds change for or against me so I can do the appropriate thing.

I also learned how to blow out an account in replay. Then by doing this multiple times, eventually I learned that taking small losers is always preferable to taking a huge loser (which of course always came from moving my stop). If you think about it, it's statistically inevitable that we're all going to buy a top or sell the bottom. So when (not if) you do this, learn to never make the mistake of letting that one trade do any damage to your account, there's just no need for it. Period. But don't take my word for it. Go try it for yourself. I think that's the only way to learn this stuff. You've got to try it out for yourself. Make your own observations, come to your own conclusions. Because whatever you do - it needs to make sense to you, and it needs to fit you.

Anyways if you can learn how to make random trades profitable, you're now a profitable trader. But why stop there? Why not go a step further and figure out for yourself why the market does what it does (order flow, volume profile, tpo, delta). Then you won't need to take random trades and you won't need to rely on anyone else to make money but yourself. And eventually you'll get to a place where you'll actually understand what market is doing or probably trying to do. You'll get a feel for how good or bad the odds are if you try long or short at any moment in time. Then you can just frame trades around that understanding and manage them with some of your taking trades at random skills.

P.S.
Don't chase automation in the beginning like I did. Unless you don't personally mind baby sitting and being physically present for all your open positions. Because if you automate and don't do this, you're just exposing yourself to unnecessary risk imo. I do plan to automate in the future, but I highly doubt it could ever do as well as I can by myself.

This is a great point - due to my work I find that I always feel I'm never in the market, or watching the market. Does anyone have any advice for how to get a good amount of screen time via replay, I've not looked at this yet?

Thanks.

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  #28 (permalink)
Market Artist
Portland, United States
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Private
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, GC, Currencies, Bonds
 
Posts: 169 since Jun 2015
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Resources: This is what I used/use


Trambo View Post
This is a great point - due to my work I find that I always feel I'm never in the market, or watching the market. Does anyone have any advice for how to get a good amount of screen time via replay, I've not looked at this yet?

Trading Software & Brokerage | NinjaTrader (Free)

+

Ninjatrader Market Replay - Download (Free)

No idea where their data comes from since I didn't receive a real answer when I asked via email. But I do know TopStepTrader is a sponsor/advertiser. So I assume it's not the kind of lackluster data we could expect to see from Interactive Brokers or ThinkorSwim etc. (last I checked)

OR

MarketReplay.NET | Market Replay data download multiple days for NinjaTrader platform (Level I = Free) (Level II = Not Free)

This data, supplied by NinjaTrader, is recorded from CQG. And from what I understand, CQG's data is more reliable then most other sources. But don't expect it to look/feel exactly same as live data. Especially if you're doing anything with Level II, Time&Sales, or making decisions based on the pace of up/down ticks since the replay engine only refreshes 1x per second. Since this isn't what we'd expect to see with quality live data, just be aware that there are few inherent "dangers" that can come with this approach.

OR

Record data from your preferred data provider and use that to practice in replay. IQ Feed and Kinetic would be safe places to start.
However, if you think it would be of benefit to experience a vast number of market conditions outside the present, it's probably better - depending on what kind of trading you're doing - to just use the free replay downloaders.


Hope this helps!

Keep things complex. But not more complex then they need to be.

Last edited by Portland; April 16th, 2016 at 09:45 AM.
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  #29 (permalink)
Order Flow Trader
Glasgow, Lanarkshire Scotland
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader & Jigsaw
Broker/Data: NinjaTrader Brokerage
Favorite Futures: ZN, ES
 
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Posts: 32 since Apr 2016
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Portland View Post
[B]

Record data from your preferred data provider and use that to practice in replay. IQ Feed and Kinetic would be safe places to start.
However, if you think it would be of benefit to experience a vast number of market conditions outside the present, it's probably better - depending on what kind of trading you're doing to just use the free replay downloaders.


Hope this helps!


Thanks very much indeed. I have no experience with Ninja and primarily use Sierra Chart. I'm trying to stick to one market and for my sins I set upon Crude (for both technical and fundemental reasons). I'd like to see how price action and volume react to higher timeframe (4 hour) key levels in the Crude Market to give me better insight into how the market behaves.

Kind regards,

Trambo.

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  #30 (permalink)
Elite Member
Chicago, IL
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS,FOREX.COM app
Broker/Data: InteractiveBrokers, NinjaTrader Brokerage FOREX.COM, IQFeed
Favorite Futures: The one I'm creating in the present....ES, ZF, ZN, ZB, FX pairs
 
Blash's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,545 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 4,478 given, 2,311 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



Portland View Post
Trading Software & Brokerage | NinjaTrader (Free)

+

Ninjatrader Market Replay - Download (Free)

No idea where their data comes from since I didn't receive a real answer when I asked via email. But I do know TopStepTrader is a sponsor/advertiser. So I assume it's not the kind of lackluster data we could expect to see from Interactive Brokers or ThinkorSwim etc. (last I checked)

OR

MarketReplay.NET | Market Replay data download multiple days for NinjaTrader platform (Level I = Free) (Level II = Not Free)

This data, supplied by NinjaTrader, is recorded from CQG. And from what I understand, CQG's data is more reliable then most other sources. But don't expect it to look/feel exactly same as live data. Especially if you're doing anything with Level II, Time&Sales, or making decisions based on the pace of up/down ticks since the replay engine only refreshes 1x per second. Since this isn't what we'd expect to see with quality live data, just be aware that there are few inherent "dangers" that can come with this approach.

OR

Record data from your preferred data provider and use that to practice in replay. IQ Feed and Kinetic would be safe places to start.
However, if you think it would be of benefit to experience a vast number of market conditions outside the present, it's probably better - depending on what kind of trading you're doing to just use the free replay downloaders.


Hope this helps!



I would add what I feel is the best option, recording the live market with good screen recording software. I use Camtasia for example. https://www.techsmith.com/camtasia.html There are other ways to record too. Remote access to your trade machine would also be a big help. For this I use http://www.splashtop.com/. Invest in some type of storage either cloud based, external HD or whatever else. At least 1TB, it's cheap. Playback can be sped up but watching just how it all unfolds is the key. Running a squawk service, like maybe the free news squawk http://www.financialjuice.com/news/ would also be helpful as you record audio as well. You could see how the market behaves before during and after news events. Basically the closer to can get it to the live market if you don't currently have the ability to sit in front of it and watch due to other forces in your life at this time will bring you closer to the day when you can, faster.

I would be happy to send anyone interested some screen recordings. Let me know...

Ron

It is an axiomatic fact that while you meditate you are speaking with your own spirit. In that state of mind you put certain questions to your spirit and the spirit answers: the light breaks forth and the reality is revealed.
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)

Last edited by Blash; April 16th, 2016 at 08:35 AM. Reason: Grammar
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