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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?
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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?

  #51 (permalink)
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Thank you


Larry View Post
Counting waves is never an easy task, we could be 10 people looking at same instrument and have more then half with different counts. You always need to check Fib relationship to help you out but even then this will not mean you will pick the top or the bottom, you need other tools to help you avoid taking trades as market might not be ready to go where you expect him to.

Over the years I have developed some tools that help me spot when a trend change is underway, also the fact that I follow ES and YM increases my odds as I wait for both to hit my criteria before initiating a trade.


Larry

Larry,
Sorry for the late response. Was out of town for a few days.

I did really well these last few trading days. My entries were really good with the exception of one and I allowed the waves to unfold as they commonly do. The hardest thing for me -and I think many traders -is to be staring at another few hundred of profits and getting that internal red flag alert in thier brains to "take profits" "take profits".

I've been working at training my mind to follow my rules with conviction. This paid off well and the waves fullfilled thier structures. I'm getting better at each trade. But I still need work in the area you eluded to.

I would love to hear about some of the tools you use to determine this. If it's too long of discussion for this thread I completely understand. I've been looking into Jigsaw and I'm contemplating on taking a stab at this service. To me it would compliment EW counts well by helping time the bottoms of impulses and corrections. Have you had any experience with this paricular package or something similar?

I had some really good trades last night on the NQ. Volume picked up around midnight last night PST. It looks like one more wave down will make a beautiful Wave 5 impulse and then off to the races up for a good correction or larger trend move.

Or the second count says were are done. If this is the case, it looks like a really weird start to a 1-2 up

Thanks again for all the feedback Larry and to the other contributors as well. -Great discussion

All the best
Shawn

Attached Thumbnails
Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-nqm6-3-may-02-0737-am-2-hour-.png   Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-nqm6-4-may-02-0739-am-2-hour-.png  

Last edited by smb2222; May 2nd, 2016 at 11:41 AM. Reason: Wrong Chart
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  #52 (permalink)
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smb2222 View Post
Larry,
Sorry for the late response. Was out of town for a few days.

I did really well these last few trading days. My entries were really good with the exception of one and I allowed the waves to unfold as they commonly do. The hardest thing for me -and I think many traders -is to be staring at another few hundred of profits and getting that internal red flag alert in thier brains to "take profits" "take profits".

I've been working at training my mind to follow my rules with conviction. This paid off well and the waves fullfilled thier structures. I'm getting better at each trade. But I still need work in the area you eluded to.

I would love to hear about some of the tools you use to determine this. If it's too long of discussion for this thread I completely understand. I've been looking into Jigsaw and I'm contemplating on taking a stab at this service. To me it would compliment EW counts well by helping time the bottoms of impulses and corrections. Have you had any experience with this paricular package or something similar?

I had some really good trades last night on the NQ. Volume picked up around midnight last night PST. It looks like one more wave down will make a beautiful Wave 5 impulse and then off to the races up for a good correction or larger trend move.

Or the second count says were are done. If this is the case, it looks like a really weird start to a 1-2 up

Thanks again for all the feedback Larry and to the other contributors as well. -Great discussion

All the best
Shawn

I don't know much about Jigsaw trading as I just looked at their website, they seems to have a few indicators that might be good but again for me they seems a bit complicated as I am not used at reading the tape. You need to find indicators that will help you confirm that the trend is reversing. Some indicators I use are very simple one of them is the MACD but on a range chart settings are based on studies I have made over time as it seems to give me best results and these are based on YM not NQ or ES. Another is based on opening range min charts for RTH. I also use plain Moving Average as they seems to like to be above or under them for a certain period of time and ATR Trailing with settings I have found by doing lots of studies.

These are some of the things I use with EW for trading.

I have a few more but for now I think this is enough stuff.

You seems to be on the good track just keep it on.

Larry



Also let's not forget what is your goal in a trade

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  #53 (permalink)
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Last possible count I have on the YM, I knew we had high odds of at least reaching the 50% retracement from the last leg down (10 min) then I just waited for a valid count on the 3 min now the question is will we go lower from here well I expect at least an abc down or conclusion of a much bigger leg down.



Larry

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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-ym-06-16-10-min-02_05_2016.jpg   Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-ym-06-16-3-min-02_05_2016.jpg  
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  #54 (permalink)
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Updated count, that is a very good example of why you need indicators to help you confirm if there will be a trend change or not.

We printed a tiny abc down as the minimum goal but we failed to really break the opening range and the ATR so based on these you could not stay short should you have sold the 50% at 17787.

I hope this can clarify what I mentioned earlier.


Larry

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  #55 (permalink)
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Very Clear


Larry View Post
Updated count, that is a very good example of why you need indicators to help you confirm if there will be a trend change or not.

We printed a tiny abc down as the minimum goal but we failed to really break the opening range and the ATR so based on these you could not stay short should you have sold the 50% at 17787.

I hope this can clarify what I mentioned earlier.


Larry

It sure does Larry. Many thanks for the tool list. I'll be looking into and studying these very carefully. That was sure a messy wave count on the NQ. It was very hard to determine what would happen. I missed the momentum opp because I took a nap and overslept, but I wasn't going to chase the market. Oh well, that's how it goes. I'm going to be looking for a correction to ensue before a larger wave 3 por. Hope it's not as messy as this last one.

Thanks again for sharing.
Cheers

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  #56 (permalink)
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Agree


Larry View Post
Last possible count I have on the YM, I knew we had high odds of at least reaching the 50% retracement from the last leg down (10 min) then I just waited for a valid count on the 3 min now the question is will we go lower from here well I expect at least an abc down or conclusion of a much bigger leg down.



Larry

This is a great example of what I was telling others on this thread where you can still trade the smaller subdivisions even on multiple alternate wave interpretations. They all subdivide the same way (impulse-corrective)

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  #57 (permalink)
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No Business Trading today


Larry View Post
Counting waves is never an easy task, we could be 10 people looking at same instrument and have more then half with different counts. You always need to check Fib relationship to help you out but even then this will not mean you will pick the top or the bottom, you need other tools to help you avoid taking trades as market might not be ready to go where you expect him to.

Over the years I have developed some tools that help me spot when a trend change is underway, also the fact that I follow ES and YM increases my odds as I wait for both to hit my criteria before initiating a trade.


Larry

I had no business trading today. The wave counts could go either way today. The arent as clean and defined as they have been the last couple of weeks. But here I go anyway. Made a fool out of myself. Hit my daily loss limit and done for the day. Don't know how much luck you had or are having but this one is tough today. Didn't follow my rules. Kept my stops tight and made a little bit of profit to offset, but didn't follow my unclear wave count internal mechanism

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  #58 (permalink)
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smb2222 View Post
I had no business trading today. The wave counts could go either way today. The arent as clean and defined as they have been the last couple of weeks. But here I go anyway. Made a fool out of myself. Hit my daily loss limit and done for the day. Don't know how much luck you had or are having but this one is tough today. Didn't follow my rules. Kept my stops tight and made a little bit of profit to offset, but didn't follow my unclear wave count internal mechanism

Sorry that you had a bad day, I didn't trade today as I played tennis this morning and this afternoon I went to the barber shop then stop to get some groceries at Costco.

That being said I can clearly see as I just came back that there were effectively no clear wave count, the only low risk trade that I can see was to sell around 14:40 EST based on my trend indicator as we had reached the 50% retracement on YM and ES.

I may have not mentioned that earlier but even if I use wave counts, lots of my trades are not based exactly on the so called Elliott Waves. We sometimes have text book wave counts but that might only be 30 to 40% of the time. So my trading is based more on identifying a trend and trying to look for a correction to get on board or wait for a trend reversal (wave A) then wait for the correction (wave B) as wave C is usually the most rewarding one, I hope this can help you in your trading, you really need to have indicators that will help you identify where the trend is. On the 3 min chart we can clearly see that the MACD was going up we even had a divergence on the low around 11:30 then a bit later the ATR went from short to long so from that point you had to avoid shorts until the MACD and the ATR reversed to the downside.

Larry

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  #59 (permalink)
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Not so bad

Thanks Larry. Yeah it was a real snoozer today. It wasnt all that bad. I try to walk away if I hit my daily loss limit which is very conservative, so im not too upset. It will be interesting to see what happens next. If you look at some of the potential short term subdivisions you can see they work both ways. I shifted to bearish on the NQ and ES after analyzing the counts, it seems to fit a little better, but to me its a coin flip in this one.

Have a good night my friend. Here's to happy trading


Last edited by smb2222; May 3rd, 2016 at 06:07 PM. Reason: misspelling
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  #60 (permalink)
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smb2222 View Post
Thanks Larry. Yeah it was a real snoozer today. It wasnt all that bad. I try to walk away if I hit my daily loss limit which is very conservative, so im not too upset. It will be interesting to see what happens next. If you look at some of the potential short term subdivisions you can see they work both ways. I shifted to bearish on the NQ and ES after analyzing the counts, it seems to fit a little better, but to me its a coin flip in this one.

Have a good night my friend. Here's to happy trading

I have been too busy lately to post any charts, I will just show that if you have a good system that can indicate where the trend is, you can make low risk trades without the need of having a perfect wave count.

On the YM once we had confirmation of trend being up we had 2 opportunities to be long as we were above opening, ATR was up so the MACD on the 10 min and we tested the SMA twice this trade was a steal as I was able to stay long (ATR) until we reached the 162% area(17672). Even if there is no labeling on the chart we can count the opening leg as leg 1A the retest of that low leg 2B and of course the big leg up as being the wave 3C the one that is usually the most rewarding one.

Have a great weekend

Larry

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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-ym-06-16-3-min-06_05_2016.jpg  

Last edited by Larry; May 6th, 2016 at 08:49 PM. Reason: Forgot something (wave labeling)
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