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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?
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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?

  #31 (permalink)
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Nice Find


Larry View Post
Counting waves is something I use but it has to be in relationship with Fib extensions or retracements. That being said I also use other tools to help me decide if we are near the end of a potential reversal area.

In a perfect world of Mr Elliott all the waves would be there but I have realized over the years that this is not always the case you quite often have failures or 1 more leg can be printed to test out the supply and demand specially if the Fib target has not been reached.

The biggest difficulty is also to find the right time frame and again it does not exist you have to look on multiple time frames on ETH and RTH. I often see certain patterns that I consider very low risk trades today we had 2 that I noticed on the YM on the 10 min we had a nice relationship wave 1 = wave 5 and on 1 min we had a 5 wave advance from the 10 min low followed by a nice abc down with 5 waves in leg C. (RTH)

I forgot to say that EW is easier to apply on intraday charts as you can quickly know if your count is valid or not while long term counts can be very costly if you are wrong. Also I do not trade using only what you see on these charts I cleaned them so you could better see the count.

Larry

Larry,

Thanks for your feedback on this and the nice charts. I was able to get a few trades off these as well. The nice thing about today was that it wasnt' too crazy. The VIX was at about 14 I believe which still allows these waves to unfold at a steady pace (IMHO) I was telling Cpuz that when it gets over 20ish they start to get crazy. Do you still trade the waves during these times?

Thanks for posting

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  #32 (permalink)
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smb2222 View Post
Larry,

Thanks for your feedback on this and the nice charts. I was able to get a few trades off these as well. The nice thing about today was that it wasnt' too crazy. The VIX was at about 14 I believe which still allows these waves to unfold at a steady pace (IMHO) I was telling Cpuz that when it gets over 20ish they start to get crazy. Do you still trade the waves during these times?

Thanks for posting

I mostly trade morning session and don't look at the VIX, I look for patterns and I must say that 3/4 of the times you will see the market printing corrective patterns with some being very complex instead of having nice text book 5 waves. I also use Range charts based on the 24 hr session to have a better view of what can unfold.

Times that I will not trade is when pattern is unclear to me or should I happen to be in front of my PC in the afternoon and there is an FOMC report coming. I will wait for the craziness to pass as liquidity is very low at this moment and prices do spikes up and down at speed of light.

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  #33 (permalink)
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A good example to show that 5 waves text book are not as common, this ES range chart has a different wave pattern than the min charts but is based on 24 hour session. The clue that it printed was that it had finally achieved the 62% retracement and we also had a good divergence on that last low. By looking at ES it helps me avoid some trades on YM as usually they both need to reach a target before a reversal occur.



Larry

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  #34 (permalink)
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Great Stuff


Larry View Post
A good example to show that 5 waves text book are not as common, this ES range chart has a different wave pattern than the min charts but is based on 24 hour session. The clue that it printed was that it had finally achieved the 62% retracement and we also had a good divergence on that last low. By looking at ES it helps me avoid some trades on YM as usually they both need to reach a target before a reversal occur.



Larry

Great stuff Larry. What a great example. Thanks for sharing this one. I just love the volatility we have right now. I don't trade the vix either, but I do watch it. Every time it's in the range between 13-16 I notice really clean waves on many indexes and currencies. This is when I really get some good trades in

I'll try and post some more counts in the coming days if anyone is still interested in this thread.

All the best
Shawn

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  #35 (permalink)
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Just to show the complexity of EW as you can take what appears to be a 5 wave down followed by a lower low and we should expect a third wave down but should would hold here on the ES then this could just become a double ABC correction instead.

So far nothing has ruled out, only thing I knew is that we had to print a lower low this morning based on my Range charts, after that we have to wait for a reversal to print out otherwise market could go down all day.


Larry

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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-es-06-16-10-min-25_04_2016.jpg   Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-es-06-16-13-range-25_04_2016.jpg  

Last edited by Larry; April 25th, 2016 at 12:02 PM.
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  #36 (permalink)
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ES WAVE COUNT


Larry View Post
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Just to show the complexity of EW as you can take what appears to be a 5 wave down followed by a lower low and we should expect a third wave down but should would hold here on the ES then this could just become a double ABC correction instead.

So far nothing has ruled out, only thing I knew is that we had to print a lower low this morning based on my Range charts, after that we have to wait for a reversal to print out otherwise market could go down all day.


Larry

I definately know what you mean Larr. I try to keep both ALt counts in mind and also trade the subdivisions in between for small scalps. I good example was the NQ last night. I saw that a clear 5 wave down was done but didn't know whether it was a wave III or larger wave (1) being finished but either way in my mind it had a high probability of bouncing from there. Then I leave my stop trailing enough to hit the common 38.2 if its a wave IV bounce or let it ride to the common 61.8 area if it was a wave (2)

In this case (so far) it hit the 38.2 fib target to the T and came back down. I left a little room but got stopped out. So to me it seems this was a wave IV bounce and once we see a wave V low possibly today we will see a wave (2) bounce. Or like you said it could be more complex and still bounce from here and complete a large abc wave (2) countertrend move.Just my 2 cents

Thanks for the charts. Good stuff.

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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-esm6-04-25-16-8-am-pst.jpg   Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-nqm6-wave-count-04-25-16.jpg  

Last edited by smb2222; April 25th, 2016 at 12:19 PM. Reason: Forgot to mention
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  #37 (permalink)
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Nice count on the NQ, I followed NQ a while back but it was too confusing for me trying to have it related to ES or YM, so I only follow the last 2 now.

Last wave count for a while as I will be too busy to trade for the days ahead. We could clearly see 5 tiny waves on YM 10 min in the last C leg, I updated the count with same as ES, seems that this was the area where they decided to finally reverse on the upside.


Larry

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  #38 (permalink)
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Same chart updated from ES 10 min I also added the Fib cluster where last C leg stopped near 100% extension of last ABC but this was also 162% of first AB.

You can also see first C leg stopped at 100% from first AB but it was a tiny leg.

So there are some wave counts that have more odds to unfold then others, you just need to combine waves with other indicators but that is another story.


Larry

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  #39 (permalink)
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Nice


Larry View Post
Same chart updated from ES 10 min I also added the Fib cluster where last C leg stopped near 100% extension of last ABC but this was also 162% of first AB.

You can also see first C leg stopped at 100% from first AB but it was a tiny leg.

So there are some wave counts that have more odds to unfold then others, you just need to combine waves with other indicators but that is another story.


Larry

Great Stuff Larry. Thanks for posting. I try not to read too much news but I did hear a few analysts stating that it was a 50/50 chance of up or down right now. Very difficult market on some indexes. I'd love to hear your thoughts

Hey guys, I posted a beautiful 5 wave count on the NQ today. I can thank Cpuz for eluding to the great fractal nature it presents many times over. I traded it only because the volatility wasn't bad at all after the fed announcement. I usually don't touch these timeframes but I felt it was stable enough to put the trade in. I did fairly well on trailing my stop slowly and letting the wave play out. One thing I did wrong was stop out between the 38.2 and 50 fib retrace. I should have let it run further. I rarely see the price action move lower between these 2. It has happened of course, but after this clean wave down I thought there would be a good pusch up.

Furhtermore, with this type of bottom a good trader would have just sat back but I didn't want to leave it on the overnight session and I wanted to take profits since I was postive even after I took some previous losses. This was the 3rd atempt to predict the bottom of wave 5. Usually after 3 atemps I back off and let it play out. Looks like 3rd time was a charm. My stops were tight at 3 lots so my losses were manageable. I'm still a rookie so I'm very conservative.

Thanks for the posts guys. This was a good thread

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Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-nq-clean-wave-count-04-27-16.jpg   Anyone use Elliott Wave ?-nq-clean-wave-count-04-27-16-2.jpg  

Last edited by smb2222; April 27th, 2016 at 05:40 PM. Reason: wrong chart
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  #40 (permalink)
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smb2222 View Post
Great Stuff Larry. Thanks for posting. I try not to read too much news but I did hear a few analysts stating that it was a 50/50 chance of up or down right now. Very difficult market on some indexes. I'd love to hear your thoughts

Hey guys, I posted a beautiful 5 wave count on the NQ today. I can thank Cpuz for eluding to the great fractal nature it presents many times over. I traded it only because the volatility wasn't bad at all after the fed announcement. I usually don't touch these timeframes but I felt it was stable enough to put the trade in. I did fairly well on trailing my stop slowly and letting the wave play out. One thing I did wrong was stop out between the 38.2 and 50 fib retrace. I should have let it run further. I rarely see the price action move lower between these 2. It has happened of course, but after this clean wave down I thought there would be a good pusch up.

Furhtermore, with this type of bottom a good trader would have just sat back but I didn't want to leave it on the overnight session and I wanted to take profits since I was postive even after I took some previous losses. This was the 3rd atempt to predict the bottom of wave 5. Usually after 3 atemps I back off and let it play out. Looks like 3rd time was a charm. My stops were tight at 3 lots so my losses were manageable. I'm still a rookie so I'm very conservative.

Thanks for the posts guys. This was a good thread

Nice catch on the NQ Shawn, as I mentioned in previous posts I try not to focus too much on long term count only what I think can unfold ahead of my count and from what I had yesterday evening as I was not in front of my PC this morning as I had family matters to take care of, we had very high odds of at least finishing an abc down from the big 1A purple giving us the 2B purple from there there was only 1 way to go, upside to print at least a big 3C leg (purple) that could be a bigger part of a bigger correction to the upside should a top be in place as otherwise this could be the potential for a big wave 3 up that would extend for a while the opening tomorrow shoud help clarify that as for now everything points to the upside.

In conclusion buying near a 62% retracement on ES or YM once wave C went lower then wave A to complete the 2B (purple) was the low risk trade of the day and even if you traded NQ it was around that time, so excellent trade you took.

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