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Thoughts on the major buying last week
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Thoughts on the major buying last week

  #1 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Thoughts on the major buying last week

Hi everyone, I was wondering if I can get some input from experienced traders(screen time) on the major buying that occurred from last week February 8-12 on the US majors.

Overnight Sunday started with a selloff in markets.
Monday starts the trading session with piercing support, retesting prior support now as resistance, selling off, then a huge wave of buying into the close to have the ES close above major support.

Overnight Monday there is more bad news from EU and Japan, and after an attempt higher...the market sells off into U.S. open. When U.S. opens Tuesday, market spikes back above major support on ES. Chop up and down all day to make a higher low than the open and another ramp higher comes back in the close to keep the ES above major support.

Overnight Tuesday there is optimism from Deutsche Bank that everything is fixed or okay....U.S. markets open Wednesday with them all up 1%+, shorts are about to give up. Then Yellen starts testifying before Congress and there is a rush to buy. I added to my shorts top tick despite the painful week so far of market ramping it up in the open and close.
Then suddenly the market changes.....it feels like truth. It just goes down and down.....forms a short term reversal pattern, I unfortunately give in to the short term reversal pattern and cover some of my shorts. After a lower high, market chops into abyss for 2-3 hours, and into the close sells off. Finally I am being rewarded for 3 days of torture.....

Then overnight Thursday, Asia tanks. Market opens Thursday with desperate traders like me wanting to cover, it surges higher initially. Most of the trade session that day was chop which then made a higher low and market ramped up again into the close.

Finally on Friday, we start the day higher and this time there were no ramp moves. Just a slow grind higher all session..


To you traders that have a lot of screen time, have you ever seen this occur? If so what was the eventual outcome?
I still remain bearish but whoever the big player was that kept ramping the market up all week, makes me a little nervous.

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  #3 (permalink)
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As every analysist will tell you, the market did this, and that means it will go up/down provided that....but you must conisider....providing that.....if resistance/support......unless volume.....overall......

Is it just me that can't understand what these advisors/commentators advise or comment on?

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  #4 (permalink)
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Lots of analysis in the spoos thread where guys share ideas and info all day long.

https://futures.io/elite-circle/13452-elite-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-post554844.html

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  #5 (permalink)
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I believe most of the bounces overnight were the CB's buying low and then scaling out the rest of the day. Gives the uninformed a chance to jump on and then get worked later.

You said yourself that you have a bearish bias..bad idea to get married to a direction. You could have made money trading both directions instead of just looking for a reason to get short.

The overwhelming sentiment has been bearish. That in it's self could generate a huge bounce. I'm not talking new all time highs, but a large move up to higher resistance off this 2016 move down.

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  #6 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Lots of analysis in the spoos thread where guys share ideas and info all day long.

I dont have access to elite =p

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  #7 (permalink)
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Hickock View Post
I believe most of the bounces overnight were the CB's buying low and then scaling out the rest of the day. Gives the uninformed a chance to jump on and then get worked later.

You said yourself that you have a bearish bias..bad idea to get married to a direction. You could have made money trading both directions instead of just looking for a reason to get short.

The overwhelming sentiment has been bearish. That in it's self could generate a huge bounce. I'm not talking new all time highs, but a large move up to higher resistance off this 2016 move down.

You live in Escondido? We should link up.

Well the big bounces did not take place overnight. They took place during the open and close of U.S. trading session.
The moves down were orderly and they never just shot straight down. They at least made a lower high before moving down. But definitely all week, the bulls were winning despite making a lower low on the week.

The spikes up were instant and vicious.
However after the overnight low of Thursday around 4AM PST that should have been key for me to cover my shorts even though I didn't get to sell at exactly that time, the market did give us a chance Thursday instead of just taking off from overnight.

I believe I was reminded of the tape near July 2015 where there would be a million buyers holding support on the major indices. We would hold support for literally 8 touches in which I had to always cover since I did not want overnight risk, then the market broke support overnight........

I think I was reminded of that and was stubborn to remain bearish.
However I did see a significant probability of a bounce from Thursday low, so at least not a deer stuck in headlight.boxing:

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  #8 (permalink)
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emptymind View Post
I dont have access to elite =p

Best money you will ever spend. You are missing out on a treasure trove of information and commentary from guys that have nothing to gain financially who are willing to share their concepts and experiences to help each other. Truly an amazing community of traders- you'll end up doing it one day sou you might as well just bite the $100 bullet now and reap the rewards.

Just an example- if you had posted this in the elite threads you would have likely had about 20 replies by now- only reason I stumbled upon the post is I was using an iPhone app that didn't differentiate the threads

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  #9 (permalink)
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@emptymind

You can PM me if you want. I don't have enough posts to Private you.

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  #10 (permalink)
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I was looking back in the video journal for the Thursday low and what was interesting was that paper was selling a shit ton of contracts but the locals were absorbing all that supply.
Guess who won, locals of course. So Paper -1, Locals +1.

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