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ES swing statistics
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ES swing statistics

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ES swing statistics

I am interested in learning about swing statistics for the ES. I would like to find out what are the range values for each swing on a five minute chart for every day for a year or more, then the averages weekly. I think a good filter would be to smooth the swing values to a 10-12%, so for example if one finds there are x amounts of swings in a year between 4.8 and 5.30, then make an average in that 10-12% range of variation, then get an average for that and how many times is happened, then from there one could analyze the averages for weekly or monthly periods.

I found some numbers in a book when the ES was around 1,500 for the average swings. I have 5.4, 6.85, 8.7, 10.8, 16.2, and 21.6 points. I want to know if this is still relevant and if the averages have changed. I think that finding these statistics could give some perspective in terms of the average risk/reward to take for a given swing based on certain patterns. Maybe then from there one could work on a indicator to sort these swing values on a real time basis. I am not suggesting that there is an edge in this thou.

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Use the main thread for discussing or gathering statistics, it has already been done:

https://futures.io/elite-circle/20164-master-homework-statistics-thread.html

For a lagging indicator, use ZigZag or its many variations including PriceActionSwing if you are on NT:

https://futures.io/ninjatrader/1272-priceactionswing-discussion.html

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