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Very simple ES strategy that seems to work
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Very simple ES strategy that seems to work

  #31 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Felt somehow compelled to butt in here. I think in the end you will realize to many indicators only serve to confuse you. I would suggest picking one or two and using that in confirmation of price action around support and resistance areas.
I'm sure you've heard that before and if you think about it there is a reason it's been parroted ad nauseum.

Aside from that I cringe at the thought of looking at a 1m chart. Way to much noise and not enough movement to get anywhere in terms of making money.

I agree and I guess this is close to Big Mikes thinking, so I guess 5-15-30 minute charts, support and resistance, and volume profile. What about the volume ladder, and what about trading based on the actual index chart? I believe the index price flow is easier to read.

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  #32 (permalink)
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What did you learn from the webinars you watched?

I know you haven't read the main ES thread because you are way off on what you think my "method" is. Why is that?


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Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
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  #33 (permalink)
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I went through some of my private messages and I remember I had one from you @marketvoyager.

I will respect your privacy of course but from the flavour of this thread, I think you are trying to do what every rookie trader does at some point. That is to find "the" setup that nobody else has, and it goes something like this...

1. You think you can beat the market. You can't.
2. You think that if you combine 3 indicators together and give yourself a specific set of rules that no other trader has thought of - you have an edge. You don't.
3. Your account starts to drawdown and so you patch together an indicator called "Holy Grail" thinking that if you now combine that indicators entry rule into your existing indicator setup it will catch huge moves. It won't.

I am sorry to break this to you. I like many have found out the hard way. You will not survive.

After nearly 6 years of trading I am only now trying to peel myself away from scalping and aiming to catch bigger moves. I was shocked many, many threads ago when @Big Mike said scalping doesn't work. what! What!? WHAT?! It doesn't?

Do I still take off most of my contracts too early? Hell yes, but as I evolve as a trader that is a habit I am trying to break.

Anyway I digress. Please consider that trading takes thousands of hours to even come close to understanding how it all fits together, and no matter what system you use or indicators you patch together, you are in for one hell of a rough ride.

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  #34 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
What did you learn from the webinars you watched?

I know you haven't read the main ES thread because you are way off on what you think my "method" is. Why is that?


Sent from my phone

So far I have watched a webinar by you called An afternoon with Big Mike. This is what I have learned from that so far:

1. Start a journal with notes on every trade
2. Don't change your setup in two weeks
3. Don't scalp
4. You will be wrong many times
4. If you feel the trade is bad exit before its worse
5. Focus on psychology as much as strategy
6. No method or strategy based on indicator parameters will work over time
7. Develop a potentially good rule based plan and fallow it
8. Try to be aware of a given set of variables for a trade both for entry and exit
9. Try to set a goal for a fixed amount of trades per day
10. Scale out lots per trade if you are losing and scale back as you make it back
11. Try not to miss the next trades just because you are losing
12. Trade in terms of probabilities

Your trading “method” for crude consists of three kinds of trades: breakout, fade, and trend continuation. They typically have three targets.

A breakout is usually based on support or resistance. For the continuation you wait for the pullback. The fades are usually based on ranges with no expectation of breakouts; this is the less common type of trade.

I have made a list of things that usually get me into trouble trading:

Directly related to trading:
1. Not waiting enough time for an initial trend move or pattern to happen before trading
2. Not making the initial trade in time and getting in close to the first retracement
3. If late, not waiting for the full initial retracement to occur, similar to the initial trend situation
4. Not getting out in time for the continuation to develop once I have a position, decreasing efficiency
5. Not recognizing the chop and not avoiding it
6. Buying or selling new highs or lows after missing moves, specially when price is significantly extended and I don't have high probability targets
7. Taking a short position either right after exiting a long or simply because I missed the move and hope for a retracement
8. Not cutting a loss of half to one point, right before it can get much worse.

Directly related to risk management:
1. Taking big positions for very risky and low reward trades
2. Taking small positions for less risky trades with bigger rewards
3. Extending my profit targets out of emotion
4. Not reducing trade size after making a couple of bad trades
5. Increasing trade size after making some good trades

Directly related to strategy and emotions:
1. Confusing patience with lack of awareness
2. Not having three scenarios and a plan for the day with multiple checkpoints
3. “Not having a well defined indicator strategy with good backtesting” (Not sure about that one anymore, probably should delete it)
4. Not following the plan or strategy due to lack of awareness or confidence in them
5. Trading for long periods of time without brakes
6. Not recognizing when I might have a bad day from the way I mentally or physically feel
7 Being too emtional and full of fear during a trade, which ususally indicates that I am not following a good plan or strategy, therefore a gambling feel full of uncertainity

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  #35 (permalink)
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trading is a very individual thing. You can read the best...be with the best and still loose.

why:- as circumstances are different.
i can sit next to the best trader in the world and still loose .

there was a mention by @tigertrader in the spoos thread. Sole objective is to make money. hence do what suits you as long as you in the black you will know you doing the right thing per yr situations. not a advice. but this is what i follow. My book in black is superior from a financial/emotional point than being in red. that also means realistic expectations on my part.

trading is a business. atleast i try to treat it like that after making some mistakes which cost. if the business plan is sound like every business should evaluate....it would have a profit/loss expectation based on AUM/capital investment. For every business there there are different studies/market surveys etc which one needs to do to constantly evolve to the next step. Some of these cost money and some do not. likewise in trading some things cost when wanting to try live....when business has a sound footing in SIM. else its a cost of learning and experimentation one may expect to dole.

anyways just my 2 cs. there are guys who take out 20pts on a 10range day. and guys who loose 10pts on a 10pt range. one method or advice cannot be a suiting all. one needs to carefully evaluate realistic expectations and work towards striving for the best per their conditions. its the market like everything in life. some stay in a condo...and some in a +m house..as situations and conditions are different. both the condo/+m guy had to work per their conditions to achieve it.

again just my 2cs on a lazy Saturday afternoon. not a advice.

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  #36 (permalink)
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paps View Post
again just my 2cs on a lazy Saturday afternoon. not a advice.

Decent advice, though.

Bob.

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  #37 (permalink)
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I am going to go against pretty much what everyone else says in this thread and applaud you @marketvoyager for looking for an edge. I have no idea if this particular system of yours provides one, but you have to keep looking for one that does. If all someone is going to do is watch what everyone else is looking at, I don't see how they can ever expect to be consistently profitable.

That said, it could take years before you actually find a real edge, but without one it all seems pointless to me. Just my 2c.

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  #38 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
I am going to go against pretty much what everyone else says in this thread and applaud you @marketvoyager for looking for an edge. I have no idea if this particular system of yours provides one, but you have to keep looking for one that does. If all someone is going to do is watch what everyone else is looking at, I don't see how they can ever expect to be consistently profitable.

That said, it could take years before you actually find a real edge, but without one it all seems pointless to me. Just my 2c.

Of course everyone needs an edge. And of course the system he proposed has no edge. To say anything less than that just gives him false hope and encourages him to just try some other random combination of indicators and "filters".

The problem is, he is looking in all the wrong places.

Lines on a chart do not an edge make.

Sent from my phone

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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  #39 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Of course everyone needs an edge. And of course the system he proposed has no edge. To say anything less than that just gives him false hope and encourages him to just try some other random combination of indicators and "filters".

The problem is, he is looking in all the wrong places.

Lines on a chart do not an edge make.

Sent from my phone

So what do you think about the list I made, is it half decent? Could I have a chance?

Where is the right place to be looking for an edge, what is the correct way to do that?

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  #40 (permalink)
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Lets keep it simple. Screen time = Edge. You must be willing to put in 6 hours a day 6 days a week 52 weeks a year and times that by 3 or 4 years then you should be a break even trader by then . Add another 3 or 4 years on top of that then you might be able to make a living out of this if your sharp. Most of us start out holy grail hunting for the first 2 years or so just to keep things interesting but then you will slowly realize the edge is in you starting to recognize the markets behaviour and patterns. The reason why scalping is not recommended to newer traders because your not paying attention to the bigger picture market structure so you are really just prolonging your learning curve. In my opinion to start understanding the context of the market its best to look at the market in a top down approach. Try to focus to catch the move of the day, this way you will always be keeping a eye on the larger time frames and that is where the most profit is found. For me personally i use 60 minute opening range, Globex open, Sunday opening line. Volume by price and various Vwaps to help me determine the context for the day. I am not saying what i use is right or wrong because everybody's personality is different and they adapt better to other tools . Trading is all about improving everyday, always learning from your mistakes and just never giving up . If you keep at it and keep a open mind then the edge will find you. BTW the list you made is excellent, but holy shit that's a lot of info for somebody to swallow. Good luck!


Last edited by mpo7; November 1st, 2015 at 02:07 PM.
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