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Very simple ES strategy that seems to work
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Very simple ES strategy that seems to work

  #91 (permalink)
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@Big Mike, kahneman calls it the "planning" fallacy i.e., overly optimistic forecasts of the outcome of projects and endeavors, because they are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios, and unrealistically far away from the statistical evidence of similar cases. the planning fallacy is only one of the manifestations of a pervasive optimistic bias. in other words, most new traders view trading as "easy" i.e., easy to learn by reading a book, and easy to achieve consistent profitability, etc. they also overate their personal ability to accomplish these goals. obviously, optimistic bias can be a blessing because it is a precursor to confidence, and a curse if it leads to a delusional outlook. personally, i like to say that " i'm smart enough to know i'm dumb enough, that i don't know everything." it tends to keep me intellectually honest and open to new ideas.

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  #92 (permalink)
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  #93 (permalink)
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tturner86 View Post
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a classic!

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  #94 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
@marketvoyager how much money are you funding your account with? And how much per month do you expect to earn from that?

Mike

Well, if I pass the combine, it could be $50k, or it could be $100k. In any case I would expect no more than $2,500 a month.

What is it I don't get? I said I need to work on learning market profile, then the hardest part will be to work on behavior modification and that is something I need to get educated about, then develop a method of my own and start slow. What else is it?

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  #95 (permalink)
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cogito View Post
There are 16 trades on that chart, not a single looser. Trades on the chart looks fantasti but they are not achievable in live trading for several reasons.

You havent defined the stop. Chart shows 17.5 points in 16 trades which is about 4 ticks profit/trade average. To make 4 tick average profitable, you stop should be 3 ticks or lower. With that small stop, chances are, you would be stopped out each and every trade. Instead of 17.5 point profit, you would be posting 14-15 point loss.

To be a consistent winner, never enter a trade unless the stop and target are identified.

I already dumped the TMV thing, it might aid in exiting only, and not on its own, nothing else.

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  #96 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
No, you don't. You really, really don't. You are so far from getting it, that there is literally no hope. I am basing this on observing you, and again I will say the absolute best advice that anyone can give you is to quit now and forget about trading.

Mike

I wont quit now, I have not even tried yet, why do you want to see me quit? I have an obsession about trading, I have to do it ok even if it takes five years.

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  #97 (permalink)
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I rest my case.

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  #98 (permalink)
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marketvoyager View Post
I wont quit now, I have not even tried yet, why do you want to see me quit? I have an obsession about trading, I have to do it ok even if it takes five years.


marketvoyager View Post
Well, if I pass the combine, it could be $50k, or it could be $100k. In any case I would expect no more than $2,500 a month.

What is it I don't get? I said I need to work on learning market profile, then the hardest part will be to work on behavior modification and that is something I need to get educated about, then develop a method of my own and start slow. What else is it?

Consistency is the key. Being consistent with your thinking and action shows a most important personal quality - Integrity. You have to convert your obsession into passion - put your heart and soul into learning market profile , volume distribution or what ever that you have identified that will help you understand the market. As many have pointed out add or change things only once you master the method. If I may suggest, take volume profile and backtest your ideas for few years, go chart by chart and learn all the bits and pieces, little nuances.

If you feel jumpy, restless and impatient while doing this, seek the reason. It may point to the real motivation underlying your obsession.

Now that you have identified what you have to do, you may want to focus on that with all that you got. Give it a few months and use the forum only to clear your doubts related to the method. Good luck with your journey.

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  #99 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
So far best I can tell he is just looking for indicators to solve the market like it's a puzzle.

His focus is on backtesting, and indicators, filters, signals, etc. Not on learning about the market, the relationships, and why it moves.

He is expecting to solve price using price.

Mike

Mike that is one interesting sentence there, didn't really think about that, its like I took it for granted. Why the market moves and what are the relationships, I guess of price and volume. Other than getting screen time, what can I read or watch to learn about this fundamental question? I am asking myself these questions right now and don't have a good answer. Price moves up because there are more buyers expecting a higher price, but why would they expect that? I think this is a question with many answers.

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  #100 (permalink)
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marketvoyager View Post
Mike that is one interesting sentence there, didn't really think about that, its like I took it for granted. Why the market moves and what are the relationships, I guess of price and volume. Other than getting screen time, what can I read or watch to learn about this fundamental question? I am asking myself these questions right now and don't have a good answer. Price moves up because there are more buyers expecting a higher price, but why would they expect that? I think this is a question with many answers.

This entire thread is a train wreck @marketvoyager and has gone from bad to worse.

You are totally and utterly taking the piss out of every trader that has bothered to contribute their valuable time to this thread. I have no idea what your motive is. You are either completely and utterly clueless about trading or you are some guy sitting in a basement at their computer concocting as much trading bull$hit you can come up with for fun, and throwing it into a post. You just don't make any sense at all.

The only solution for you is to quit now and save the pain ahead.

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