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Nifty Trading Ideas: Market Profile
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Nifty Trading Ideas: Market Profile

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Amibroker, Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: Nifty Index Futures (NSE)
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2015
Thanks: 4 given, 10 received

Nifty Trading Ideas: Market Profile

NIFTY

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We have found acceptance in the spike from yesterday, a clearly lower value, which suggested downside continuation. We formed a squat profile for most part, but got a late break down from it, which tested the lower boundary of the 6 day consolidation.
This short time frame (STF) consolidation need intermediate time frame (ITF) players to break on either side., but the auction slowed at the lower boundary, which suggests that STF players are trying to keep the bracket intact, in that case we might probe higher, possibly to the high of the bracket, if STF players remain in control.
On the contrary today's low become an important reference (8104-80 band), which is taken out may suggest that ITF players are extending the price down. Then we may have a bigger down move on our hands., til then play for the bracket to hold.
We have a PH and a prominent POC (PPOC) as references on the upside.


BANKNIFTY

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We had a P shaped profile yesterday, which suggested possible test of days low, which we got today. But the profile could not extend much beyond YL, and balance around it, the value is clearly lower though.
But a PL suggested that sellers are getting exhausted and we might see an upside probe, before we see a bigger down move.
The 17475 level, the lower boundary is the key for further downsides.
We have weak highs in place and this break could be a liquidation break, if we have to start a new down trend, we need aggressive sellers at the top, or range extension below the lower key reference area (KRA).

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Nagpur, Maharashtra, India
 
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Favorite Futures: Nifty Index Futures (NSE)
 
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Status Quo Maintained on the Indices - Evening Report


NIFTY

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The combined weekly profile clearly shows that POC has migrated lower over last few days, and that is a bearish development, and may lead to a completion of profile to the downside.
Last 2 days composite profile shows a ND curve, a mature distribution, suggesting a possibility of a move away from value, start of a new auction, the success and failure of which will have to be monitored.
Acceptance at the lower boundary of the 6 day consolidation, does not augur well for the bulls, at least the bulls need to check what lies beneath it, to be sure before they auction the price up.
The 8180 level above and 8080 below will define the next trend.

BANKNIFTY
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The composite weekly profile of Banknifty tells a similar story, we have POC migrating lower, bearish for the markets.
The 2 day composite profile is a nice ND curve, a mature distribution, suggesting a new auction may start.
Today's profile is P shaped, which says that the initial buying was met by patient selling, this in context of the bigger POC migration lower is not good at all for the bulls.
17700 above and 17745 below are the KRAs.

Trade Disclosure

Flat.

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  #4 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Nice BO from Balance - Evening Report

NIFTY

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Nifty formed a classic P shaped profile today, suggesting that today's move was due to SC, rather than fresh buying. But most BO from balances start as a SC rallies.
So before we judge this move by its shape, we need to give some more time for this move to develop.
We are at a KRA, the PPOC of 8200 from 12th, still some distance away from the weak high of 9th and 12th, and till the time today's single prints are intact, this up move cannot be discounted.
Today's gap caught me by surprise, but it only suggests that we are still in the STF consolidation, and balancing.

BANKNIFTY

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Banknifty however has reached the top of the STF bracket, and we also have a FA at the top. Although the drop after the FA was not conclusive, as the down probe did not continue, so it can be classified as just a liquidation break.
A move above 17800 can be a BO on Banknifty, and should test PPOC from 21/08/15 easily.
I am not suggesting higher levels right now, will observe the markets a bit more before committing to higher levels.
Till the time today's single prints are intact, we might be good for higher levels.

Trades

Did intraday longs on a GAP up open, and scratched a short after the FA, in NF.

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  #5 (permalink)
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The BO yesterday was "Legit" - Evening Report

NIFTY

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Nifty BO yesterday,turned out to be a real one. It was wise to give it some time, which kept us with our longs, long enough to let the market wear out impatient players, and reward those with conviction and a logical trading plan.
We have closed above 8245 so we have BO from the STF trading range too, higher prices awaits, should this BO sustain.
The next logical stop is somewhere between 8330-400, where the channel boundary, gap and CVPOC all coincide.

BANKNIFTY

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Banknifty too had a strong BO above the weak high levels around 17800, the BO is as clear as it gets.
Similar to Nifty we have a number of KRAs coinciding in the 18125-400 range, that becomes the next logical stop for prices now.

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  #6 (permalink)
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Acceptance at higher prices - Evening Report

NIFTY

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NF opened near spike high, and formed a clearly higher value today. The higher prices shown by spike yesterday are being accepted. Now we need to see prices moving higher after today's acceptance of prices above the bracket top of 8245.
Yesterdays SP were protected throughout the day, the green lines show the value area from 21st Aug, and we have traded within that value area throughout the day. 21st Aug is the first gap down, which was followed by the huge gap down of 200+ pts on 24th Aug. This value area is very key area, and if we can trade above it we can see quick move to 8360-84 levels.
Today's profile has a rough double distribution shape, and has both PH and PL, suggesting that today's trade was dominated by DTF traders. Since today's profile is not very clear and hence inconclusive, we may rotate a bit early tomorrow, and then try to BO out of the 21st Aug value.
The PL might tempt players to check what lies beneath it, before making a move to the upside. To the downside 8204 is the key level, below which we might have to reassess this auction.

BANKNIFTY

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Banknifty opened at spike high as well as yesterdays settle. And traded down throughout the day. The volume was very low, and hence the trade facilitation to the downside was not good either. May be yesterdays longs taking some money off the table.
The acceptance of the higher prices created by the spike, suggests that these higher prices are acceptable to the traders.
We have a WH and a PL today, which suggests that this auction might rotate tomorrow, at least early in the day before finding any clear direction. Banknifty too traded inside the 21st Aug value today, which again remains the key for higher prices. Above this value area we may have a quick move to 18125-250 levels.
On the downside we have 17770-50 as a key range, below which we might have to reassess this auction.

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  #7 (permalink)
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A market controlled by weak buyers - Evening Report

NIFTY

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Today's market was in control of weak buyers. What I mean by that is, every time the market went up to the 8285 levels, it did so on very low volumes, and impatient buyers took this opportunity to take profits every time it scaled to that level.
But this in turn set up a lot of matching highs, a fertile ground for stops, and once this flushing out of weak buyers is done with, string traders will definitely try to take out those stops.
The SP from 16th are still intact, and are providing support as expected, there is absolutely no sign of strong sellers at the top or anywhere after that in last 2 days trading.
If you observe the right edge of the chart, you can see a composite VAP overlay (orange color), there we can see that value is being pulled up every time we got a spike up, that is a bullish sign. Today the price is lower but the POC is higher than yesterday.
But if at all we trade lower tomorrow, below today's low, we might test the 8200-8190 levels, below that the picture will change.


BANKNIFTY

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Banknifty too came down and took out all the SP from 16th, that is not a good sign for bulls. But as soon as we completed the repair of SP, we got a good strong buying tail, suggesting lower prices were accepted by strong buyers.
We also have a weak high from 16th and 19th and a PH today, which might be targeted if today's buyers prevail and protect the buy tail.
Though the price probed down, the POC has not changed, which suggests that value is still higher, and this price move away fro value might be snapped back to value, so a test of CPOC @ 17905 is possible.
But if the buy tail is taken out, then we might test the lower distribution as shown on the VAP overlay chart. We also have a weak low from 15th and 16th @ 17625 to contend with.

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  #8 (permalink)
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Long liquidation continues - Evening Report

NIFTY

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Nifty has formed outside days back to back. But both today and yesterday even though the range was extended on both sides, we closed near the center of the day, a neutral center day. So notwithstanding all the action of the day, the status quo is still maintained.
We had a good buy tail yesterday, and today too we have one, suggests that lower levels are being accepted buy buyers, but these buyers may not be very strong as they are not able to effect a BO, so far they are content providing support to the markets at lower levels, the SP from 16th.
There is rejection at the top, but the sellers are very aggressive, which suggests that this might not be a lasting high, and open to being challenged, still! The distribution is looking like a nice bell curve (see the volume profile to the right).
Now we can only draw one conclusion here, we are in for a trending move, but we get one right away or after some more consolidation, and the direction of the move, both remain a puzzle still. I guess we need more information to make that call, till that time, one can trade the intraday volatility, we are getting nice moves intraday, and avoid long term commitment.

BANKNIFTY

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The PH saga continues in BNF, but the value today is decidedly lower. We have close well off the days low, but since value is lower, the bias is bearish.
But unless we break the 17500-400 band, we cannot be too certain of a big down move. The weak and poor highs at the top does not give confidence for a big down move either.
The poor weak lows from 15th and 16th are repaired.

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  #9 (permalink)
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Confusion continues, tread carefully - Evening Report

NIFTY

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Well we had a freak open today, but even if we ignore the opening freak trades we have a clear 'b' shape profile today (frankly I am out of wits about what to do with the freak highs). We traded lower quite swiftly in the morning, till about 12:30-13:00 the market was OTF down. Bears were firmly in control, the developing shape at that time too was roughly resembling the 'b' shape, which made me think that patient buyers are entering and lower levels were accepted aggressively by the buyers.
The rally which started around 12:30-01:00 was short lived and was used by bears to pile on the shorts, the bears then late in the day took out the buy tail, which suggests that the aggressive buyers have given way, and the prices are not yet ripe for buying.
We talked about 8270 level in last report, which could not be held by the end of the day. We have now entered back into the value of 21st Aug, which is not a good thing for buyers. Also the low of the 3 day balance of 19, 20 and 21st is around 8216, which might be tested now. We have a buy tail there and the resolve of the bulls might be tested.
If we look at the shape of the profile from 21st it looks too stretched out, with many irregularities, which might be repaired. The ray of hope for bulls is the extension handle at 8205-15 band, which if repaired we are in for a test of 8100 levels.
The bulls if they have to regain control of this auction should make Nifty trade above the 8325-40 band, the sell tail from yesterday.

BANKNIFTY

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We talked about the matching/weak highs in yesterday's report, which were repaired today, and we have a sell tail in place today. Even though the profile shape is a clear 'b' we have managed a close below the value of 21st Aug. Today's value too is clearly lower, with close on the lows. The only problem is volume is on the lower side.
We are at a LVN on the composite volume profile (not seen properly in this chart), the lower distribution has a CVPOC of 17620, which might attract the bears.
Today's high though looks like it has repaired the weak highs from last week, is within 50 pts from last weeks weak highs. Now 50 pts in context of BANKNIFTY is not a huge price range, and the we might consider that the series of matching highs is still on, suggesting a possible liquidation break, further down.
The only saving grace is the 'b' shape, but I wont put too much faith in it, will have to wait for further price clues.

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  #10 (permalink)
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Indices delicately poised - Evening Report


NIFTY

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Nifty formed a lower value today, after a gap down opening. The gap could not be filled through the day. The range was very narrow, which can be mistaken for poor trade facilitation to the downside, but it might be something very different.
This type of price action is common when big players perceive price as unfair and want to position themselves for the coming move. The sellers today (the gap was unfilled) sold patiently through the day, never overdoing it, to keep the range limited, and accumulated their shorts at decent prices. If my hypothesis is correct we are in for a big move tomorrow or on expiry day.
We have a band of supports below the market @ 8200-25, which needs to be taken out, preferably with another gap down to trigger the long liquidation, which might send price down in search for strong buyers, and first stop might be 8140-50 area and below that 8100-090 area.
On the upside we need to close the gap first, and if we do that, the pull back low from yesterday @ 8298 becomes the key.

BANKNFITY

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Banknifty too opened gap down, but the gap was quickly closed, leaving behind a buy tail. The up move however could not cross the fat part of yesterday 'b' shaped profile.
Volume today was on the lower side, which suggests that today's up move did not attract much interest, on the contrary today's up move might have been used to secure good trade location for shorts.
We are decidedly below the value from 21st Aug, which was a micro balance, which resolve down in a very violent manner, now that price action was event based, but still that day's value area is a crucial, for any meaningful up move to develop. Even Nifty could not sustain above it, which suggests that sellers are using these higher prices to accumulate shorts.
On the upside though yesterdays pull back high of 17930 holds the key.

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