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How do you determine/predict if it's a RANGE day or TREND day?
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How do you determine/predict if it's a RANGE day or TREND day?

  #11 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Laurel, MD USA
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Ninja Trader Brokerage Kinetic
Favorite Futures: Futures, ES, NQ, YM, TF, GC, CL, SI, Currencies
Posts: 6 since Aug 2015
Thanks: 2 given, 3 received

Range or Trend day?

I started listening to FuturesTrader71. He has a great system to determine using mathematical probabilities where market's support and resistance most likely will be for the coming day. He starts a YouTube session at 9:00 am EDT sharp. His analysis usually takes about 10-20 minutes before the market open. It's focused primarily on the ES and other important market or futures issues. You need to register on this website but the YouTube feeds he does twice a day are free.

Rios Quantitative has software called GnosTick that adjusts the support and resistance levels each day at midnight that works with Futures, Forex or Stocks. Not sure the math of his formula to do this but the man (Joe Rios) is a genius in my opinion. It's unbelievably accurate. They use the Ninja Trader or Trade Station platforms. You can get a free trial for I believe 30 days. They open up their live trade room and you can watch how it works and how they make consistent returns. They have coaching/mentoring. It's rules based to maintain good money management and discipline.


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The following 2 users say Thank You to dchendrixson for this post:
  #12 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Bangor, Wales
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: TF
Posts: 9 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 1 given, 3 received

In simple terms, this will depend on your philosophy about how markets behave. If you think that they are irrational and can sustain behaviour beyond the limits of what you would expect a chance distribution to produce, then they will produce trends - strings of self-similar behaviour.

In this case, a market that has been range expanding is likely to continue range expanding, and a market that is range contracting is likely to continue range contracting.

Conversely, if you think that markets are mean reverting and move in cycles, then they will be unlikely to produce strings of self similar behaviour.

In this case, a market that has been range expanding is likely to begin range contracting, and a market that is range contracting is likely to begin range expanding.

A third possibility also exists: that markets alternate between these two modes. However, if they do that, you might ask whether a self-similar mode is likely to be followed by another self-similar mode, or whether . . . As you can see, the argument continues endlessly - part of why the markets are so complex!


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