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How do you determine/predict if it's a RANGE day or TREND day?


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How do you determine/predict if it's a RANGE day or TREND day?

  #11 (permalink)
dchendrixson
Laurel, MD USA
 
Posts: 6 since Aug 2015
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I started listening to FuturesTrader71. He has a great system to determine using mathematical probabilities where market's support and resistance most likely will be for the coming day. He starts a YouTube session at 9:00 am EDT sharp. His analysis usually takes about 10-20 minutes before the market open. It's focused primarily on the ES and other important market or futures issues. You need to register on this website but the YouTube feeds he does twice a day are free.

Rios Quantitative has software called GnosTick that adjusts the support and resistance levels each day at midnight that works with Futures, Forex or Stocks. Not sure the math of his formula to do this but the man (Joe Rios) is a genius in my opinion. It's unbelievably accurate. They use the Ninja Trader or Trade Station platforms. You can get a free trial for I believe 30 days. They open up their live trade room and you can watch how it works and how they make consistent returns. They have coaching/mentoring. It's rules based to maintain good money management and discipline.

DC

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  #12 (permalink)
DavidCarmichael
Bangor, Wales
 
Posts: 16 since Sep 2015
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In simple terms, this will depend on your philosophy about how markets behave. If you think that they are irrational and can sustain behaviour beyond the limits of what you would expect a chance distribution to produce, then they will produce trends - strings of self-similar behaviour.

In this case, a market that has been range expanding is likely to continue range expanding, and a market that is range contracting is likely to continue range contracting.

Conversely, if you think that markets are mean reverting and move in cycles, then they will be unlikely to produce strings of self similar behaviour.

In this case, a market that has been range expanding is likely to begin range contracting, and a market that is range contracting is likely to begin range expanding.

A third possibility also exists: that markets alternate between these two modes. However, if they do that, you might ask whether a self-similar mode is likely to be followed by another self-similar mode, or whether . . . As you can see, the argument continues endlessly - part of why the markets are so complex!

Dave

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  #13 (permalink)
 
ChartWarrior's Avatar
 ChartWarrior 
Toronto, Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra, Jigsaw
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Joules360 View Post
Why predict the range day vs the trend day when you can have a trade strategy to cover both at the same time. I trade the TF with 2 contracts. The first one has a 10 tick target and then I go to break even +1 stop for the second which is the runner. I trail the runner automatically by 10 ticks until it comes back to take me out.

This way I have satisfied the range day itch with 10 ticks + 1 tick when it come back quick on the second contract. I have also satisfied the Trend day when the runner continues to go and maybe captures 30 to 40 ticks.

Its the best way to cover both the range and the trend day. I have also learned not to intervene on the strategy trail. Because if you do....you often cut the winner shorter than if you let it play out. In other words, once the trade is entered...let the auto strategy play out to its fullest..and let the market take you out with what it will give you.

Joules360

I wonder, do you still use 10 tick trail in today's market given the wide rotations?

If your edge puts the odds in your favor, then every loss puts you that much closer to a win.
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  #14 (permalink)
Ozquant
Brisbane Queensland Australia
 
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lsubeano View Post
I agree with jkingcapital!



if its true that ~80% of days are range, then its safe to guess its mostly likely a range day until there's a high volume
breakout of swing high/low or daily high/low...

THIS ^^^^^^^ or bounce/drop from capitulaltion move ( exhaustive ) pretty well covers it

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  #15 (permalink)
 drakebauer 
Ramey
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
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Trading: ES, YM
Posts: 44 since Aug 2009
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i have start with a 1 minute chart of the $NYAD and $NAAD on stockcharts. It is the only thing I use the Williams Indicator on . After the first OS/OB I have I go to the 3 minute chart. after watching it once sees the sames things occur over and over.

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