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The chief consideration is or was our position with regard to the weekly trend channel. Given that, the ranging last week, the failure at 37.50, and the failure again this morning above 41.5, all of which fortunately took place long before the open, the upside didn't look too promising. There may have been entrances before the open, but I'll limit this to the open itself (the lower low after the break of the supply line just before the open was also a plus).
This is a good example of how much are you willing to pay to find out if you're right or wrong. If the trader isn't willing to pay however much that might be, then he has to pass.
If the failure above 41.5 had taken place after the open, trading it would have been more difficult for some, easier for others. This isn't so much a question of did you take it or not, but what were you looking at? If you missed it, why? What can you look for the next time?
The next trade is simpler and easier:
Tomorrow, of course, will likely be boring as your in-law's travel photos.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I have always struggled with entries into trends that are already under way, I have always thought if I am not in at the start I am chasing (mainly due to being chewed up once too often), using those retracements/springboards that one should expect during a trend a trader could open a position or add if they feel confident enough about what is happening.
The lower extreme of that hourly seemed to hold up but the upper extreme has been broken a bit much now, above that was last weeks high that offered an opportunity but that was a little too early for me.
Unfortunately my time is up, I would have liked to have seen if price could get to the lower extreme and what would have happened next as it happened, but, there's always next time .
In this case, the trend started in the middle of the night, so being in at the beginning was not an option, except for those in Indonesia. Or insomniacs. And entering at the open was definitely a testicular trade. But, no, jumping in and hoping for the best is not a prudent tactic. I prefer to wait until price begins ranging (look for the range). Granted that can seem to take some time, but in this case it was only twenty minutes. It only seems like hours.
As for the rebound shown on the hourly, I shouldn't have shown it as it had nothing to do with the trading before 1100, after which I'm done. I never beat myself up for those. Otherwise I'd be stuck in front of the computer all day long, and there's just no way.
Find myself with a 2 day reprieve, Price got reasonably close to the lower extreme in yesterdays session but was unable to maintain the move lower, Ideally I would like to see it hit that lower extreme and see how it behaves compared to the last time it was at the lower extreme in an uptrend.
I might be overkilling it with the lower lines on the daily chart, but I thought with them being large swing points they will stick out to anyone trading this time frame and thus price could struggle at those levels offering opportunities in the process.
The SLA, as I may have mentioned once or twice , was written for beginners and damaged traders. It is a primer. However, the effort to explain can lead to what one might call a bit too much detail (try "exhaustive"). For those who already understand it, the detail may be interesting and even lead to further Ah-Ha moments. But for those who are new to it, the detail may elicit instead a wtf?.
Therefore, I've rewritten the SLA/AMT in a simpler form (in the original, I said that the SLA was as simple as I could make it; I was wrong). Discussions which may have been interesting but were not essential have been removed. Extraneous charts have been deleted. The rest have been combined. This makes the whole thing 19p long, a handy pocket size, something you can read at the dentist's office or on the bus.
I hope beginners will have an easier time of it with this. If not, I'll make further changes. The advantage of digital books is that they can be revised, updated, "fixed" at any time at no cost other than time.
Remember that you can always take a day/week/month off if the market does not look right to you. You don't have to trade just so you feel that you are working. I take many "breaks" when things don't look right to me. In fact, numerous times I will do all my research, get up at 5:00 AM and be ready to execute my game plan, only to find out that what I was planning on doing was not doable, for whatever reason, i.e. missed an entry, big gap up/down, bad vibes, etc.
When these conditions present themselves, I will call the local golf course, get an early tee time, and leave the trading desk. I do that, because I know that if I stayed around when I am in the wrong mental state of mind, I could make costly mistakes. I'd rather hit a white ball and get frustrated beyond belief scoring in triple digits than stick around when things don't feel right.
The beauty of the stock market is that there are always new opportunities to make a trade.
There is a tendency among some/many/most of those interested in this to apply it to what they already do rather than start over. This is not unlike using layer upon layer of makeup to cover up zits rather than get rid of the zits. Or using gobs of sour cream to cover up the crack in the cheesecake rather than start over and do it right to begin with. This is most obvious when it comes to the desire to trade ranges.
The past two days are instructive with regard to trading ranges. I've said that the SLA is not appropriate for trading ranges and the recent action shows why. Even though the correct entry on Monday was at 0300, the entry provided at the open was clean as well, as was the follow-on entry off that range I posted earlier. The rebound was okay up to 4400, but not comparable to the initial downmove. Yesterday, of course, was slog. The trending move, therefore, was the easy one as well as being the simplest. The ranging moves, not so much.
Whether or not one trades ranges appears to fall under the category of Advice. However, the SLA takes care of this: if one has two successive losing trades, one long and one short or vice-versa, he stops as these are signs of impending ranging or chop. He then waits until price exits the range or the chop, whichever it turns out to be. The trader does not just keep slamming himself against the glass. It doesn't matter how many lines the trader draws or how many patterns of behavior he looks for. A range is a range. A trend is a trend. The best option is to back away and watch.
There are two ways for us to reach the lower limit of the weekly channel. One is to drop down to it and bounce off it. This usually results in the sort of clean reversal that makes for an easy trade. The other is to just sit here like a bump on a log and wait for the lower limit to reach us, and push, which it will do in three to four weeks. And while the idea of hanging about at this level for three or four weeks seems ludicrous, we have in fact been hanging about at this level for three months.
