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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday
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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

  #71 (permalink)
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And then what? What bar intervals were you looking at?

 
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Later the Price makes another retracement, but with certain level of volatility; in the 5 sec bar interval a range was formed, but after a spike the lower limit around 20.50 the Price continues its upward movement.

The next level was around 26 but the Price shows strength when Broke through this level, and this strength is shown in the 1m and 5 sec bar interval, therefore until this moment the Price is doing what is expected.

The next level was the PDH around 31, but once again the traders show their strength and the upward movement continues. Later on the next level was around the 37.25 where was located the previous day ONH, where after a movement of 23 pts during the first 9 minutes the Price start to show some weakness first the bar that break through this level at 0840 is reversed almost immediately and later a LH is confirmed, from here the Price starts to decline but the retracements are relatively deep in front of the downward movements therefore the Price fits into a TC

 
  #73 (permalink)
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Did you see all this in real time?

 
  #74 (permalink)
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Yes but I could not coordinate this with my entries, after the first exit I tried to enter in the second retracement but this trade also was stopped out because of the volatility during the RET, later the Price lifted off and I knew that after a 20 pts to the upside that maybe was not a good idea trying to reenter again moreover with the signals that the Price was giving (Reversed bar and LH), therefore I was waiting for a deeper Retracement in order to enter in a more advantageous position, notwithstanding a hinge is formed and the Price makes a FBO to the upside (0906) and later the Price went down and a RET is triggered and confirmed (0910) at this point I was short, later on the Price makes a Reversal around 17.25 and the position is exit at 0924 and a Range is defined with the UL at 39.75 and the LL at 17.25

 
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lajx View Post
Yes but I could not coordinate this with my entries, after the first exit I tried to enter in the second retracement but this trade also was stopped out because of the volatility during the RET, later the Price lifted off and I knew that after a 20 pts to the upside that maybe was not a good idea trying to reenter again moreover with the signals that the Price was giving (Reversed bar and LH), therefore I was waiting for a deeper Retracement in order to enter in a more advantageous position, notwithstanding a hinge is formed and the Price makes a FBO to the upside (0906) and later the Price went down and a RET is triggered and confirmed (0910) at this point I was short, later on the Price makes a Reversal around 17.25 and the position is exit at 0924 and a Range is defined with the UL at 39.75 and the LL at 17.25

You're getting lost in the trees again.

Before the session even began, one can see the potential op at 17.25. One can also see the ONH at 25-26. One can also see Monday's ONH at 37and Friday's low at 40. These are levels that everybody sees (except for those who think that ON levels are unimportant; I wish we could put that to rest; I promise you that professionals are very much aware of them, as could be witnessed this morning). Therefore they become important. How much price has already moved is irrelevant from an AMT standpoint. Price can move over a hundred points in a day. Or ten. Don't avoid legitimate trades just because you think that price has gone "too far", or that resistance is just ahead.

You were correct to exit the trade, but not for the reasons given. Whenever price behavior prompts you to exit, either manually or via a stop, determine as quickly as possible why this became necessary. If you can't, then exit anyway and do nothing until the situation becomes more clear. In this case, price left 17.25 just fine but ran into trouble at 25-26. To avoid entering at all just because 25-26 might be trouble is insufficient. Price could just as easily have blown through 25-26 without hesitation and leave you standing. As it was, price tried four times to break through without success, finally doing so just after 0935 (and when it does so, it doesn't look back, an example of how ranges provide compression and expansion; also an example of what correct entries look like). As for a retracement thereafter, there is a slight one half a minute later, or if you recognize it, a springboard which provides another entry at 0938. Best entry, of course, and the correct entry, is the BO from the range at 26.

After that it's just a matter of following price until it gets near 40. There are multiple potential resistances up here, as I pointed out earlier. But unless you're using an extremely tight follow stop, there's no reason to exit pre-emptively.

Again, focus on price behavior, not your trades. If price isn't doing what's expected, THEN concern yourself with your trade. If it is doing what's expected, focus on that, not how much money you're making (or would be making if you had entered the trade correctly).

You should also decide whether you want to trade range or trend as well as whether or not you want to scalp. If you ignore AMT entirely, you're going to end up scalping, particularly if you trade the 1m, much less the 5s. If you want to trade trend rather than ranges, you're going to have to be firm about exiting ranges as soon as they present themselves, as you did with your first trade. There is a temptation to hang on in the expectation that price will break out of whatever and you won't be along for the ride. But you should know by now that when price stalls in these little ranges, it can remain there for hours. Better to exit, preferably at BE or better, then get ready for either an upside or downside BO.

This is what the trader is looking at the first few minutes:

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And this is the springboard -- in blue -- that's provided after price breaks out of this consolidation:

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Now how would you manage this on the way to 40? How would you manage a short up there?


Last edited by DbPhoenix; June 16th, 2015 at 01:38 PM.
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  #76 (permalink)
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Ok db thanks for the answer,

Regarding to your question it is explained in the image attached

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  #77 (permalink)
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Better. But are you suggesting that your stomach would be just fine with price coming back at you after your PDH note, or your PDONH note? You wouldn't freak out and exit the trade?

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  #78 (permalink)
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No, off course this is an exercise done in hindsight, moreover the 5 sec bar interval is really fast and is the first time that I use it. Therefore is most likely that I would have used only the 1m chart and hold the trade at least until the 50% of the previous movement around 30 (as is shown in the chart attached), but I think in this kind of environment is helpful to know the questions that you asked me in order to not freak out for example:

“How much can price break a line and still stage a successful continuation? At what point do the probabilities shift from continuation to reversal?”

BTW Here is the link where I will post this kind of observations and thanks for your detailed explanation of today


https://futures.io/trading-journals/36057-price-action-observations.html

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  #79 (permalink)
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I'm glad you remembered the midpoint.

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And there's the trusty demand line:

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There are a couple of important points here, though, that should not be overlooked if you're going to trade price instead of how you feel about it.

The idea of forgetting about your trade is central. If you enter correctly and you target your stop correctly, whether mental or hard, your trade becomes irrelevant. This is true with regard to that first pullback toward the midpoint -- a point at which most would bail -- but also the spike upward -- at 0942-- after an entry off the break of the demand line. Or the spike upward at 0946 after an entry off the LH you have noted. Both of these spikes would move past your entries, but neither would get to the danger points. Can you ignore your entries and let the price movement play out?

I suggest you replay this morning. Download it if you have to. Replay it in real time. Don't accelerate it. Get used to how price behaves and where. The activity levels and the pace. Study how the 5s and 1m relate (if you're going to trade only the first 90m, this is almost a required; you can't allow price to hide). Trade it again. Doesn't matter that it's hindsight. Focus on the price movement, not your trade. At this point, you already know where to enter so there's no reason to worry about it. This will take less than an hour.

Then do it again, in replay, same process. Focus on price. Enter according to your plan. Then forget about your entries and your trades. Focus on price. If insights are beginning to occur, do it again.

The purpose of this sort of exercise is to desensitize you to yourself, to move you toward focusing on price, the market, rather than your trades, your self. If you can't get away from I I I me me me my my my, you're going to have a tough time profiting from trading price (actually you're going to have a tough time profiting from anything that isn't automated, and even that's no guarantee).

Then go through the same exercise using yesterday morning. Then try it on a randomly-chosen morning. Keep doing this in an atmosphere of safety until those emotions begin to evaporate.

As far as the hindsight issue, remember that while the details may differ, the underlying structure is the same:

Two states: ranging and trending

Three directions: up, down, sideways

Three strategies: breakouts, retracements, reversals

Plot your midpoints in real time

Watch for LHs and HLs that occur in tandem; they signal chop.

Find the extremes during prep.

Watch for springboards. Springboards are your friends.

Determine the danger points.

And that's pretty much that. And it's the same thing every day, day after day.

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  #80 (permalink)
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About this "midpoint" business. Those who are unfamiliar with Wyckoff may not understand what midpoints are all about and why they're worth plotting, or at least being aware of.

The midpoint is a measure of strength/weakness. The idea is that if price can claw its way back more than halfway through a previous decline, the fact that doing so takes considerable strength has implications for what happens next. If it can't, that failure carries implications as well. Ditto weakening rallies. If price drops back more than half the extent of a rally, that rally is likely in trouble. By "strength", however, there is no guarantee of new highs. The failure of price to advance is the result of buyers not being willing to pay the ask. However, buyers today may be willing to pay the ask that they were not willing to pay yesterday. Or an hour ago. Or five minutes ago. Or the perception of strength by some may not be shared by enough other traders to make it a reality. Strength, however, can push price quite some distance before it gets anywhere near the level of having to decide whether it has enough gas in its tank to attempt a new high, much less make one. (Reverse all of this for declines after rallies)

The price action trader tries to find "indicators" that are created by the market itself, indicators that require no settings, indicators that are in the market and not in his head. The notion of midpoints, i.e., the strength of desire -- or lack of it -- may be one of those indicators, like advancers v decliners, or the respective volumes thereof.

The following charts should illustrate this:

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Here price reverses at the MP (this is the sort of thing one will find it books because it appears to be proof of something)

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Here, after a decline, price not only pushes back past the halfway level but makes a higher high:

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Here price waffles around the MP for several days, but eventually plunges to 4390 (not unlike a Roadrunner/Coyote cartoon: toon physics):

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Here it makes its way past the halfway level and doesn't make a new high or even come close to reaching the old one, but a 40pt rally is nothing to sneeze at. Even so, it does appear to have found support at 4390, i.e., "big money" thinks that that level represents a good buy:

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And for the upcoming session:

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Last edited by DbPhoenix; June 17th, 2015 at 09:07 AM.
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