Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday
Updated: Views / Replies:42,964 / 362
Created: by DbPhoenix Attachments:197

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Closed Thread
 197  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

  #231 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received

You know by now, of course (2015), that the failure of price to reach the lower limit of the channel in June '13 presaged a more severe upmove through the upper limit, after which one could draw a trendline and channel going back to the June low, a channel in which we remain today. But none of that would have compelled you to go long in June.

Looking at all of this in the rearview mirror, June was not the buying opportunity it now appears to be, nor was March '14, nor April '14 – those three points were required to draw the trend channel that we've been working with since. And as the channel didn't exist at the time, there was nothing for price to "bounce off of". Rather the first opportunities don't appear until August/September and October. At least within the context of this channel.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



If one backs up even further, however, the landscape changes. Rather than looking for a short, we find that price appears to be exiting what was then the current channel, and long trades of breakouts are more likely:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



In real time, December '13 would look like an overbought condition, and a short would be called for. This would be stopped out quickly, and given the subsequent higher high, another short opportunity would not come up until March/April. This would also be stopped out and price would exit the channel again. Given that price makes a higher high in June, the more likely course is a long, which could be taken then or in August, and as we now have the necessary swing lows and swing high for a trend channel dating from June '13, we can short the rejection of it in August/September, or go long when price tests the lower limit of it in October, which is also a test of the upper limit of the previous trend channel.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


(to be cont'd)


Last edited by DbPhoenix; July 19th, 2015 at 06:16 PM.
The following 4 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #232 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received

So what good is all this if the bounces aren't bounces in real time and the trading opportunities which seem to have been there really weren't? If one backtests properly, if the current trading environment is approached by entering the pool at the shallow end, step by step, rather than jumping in the deep end with both feet, there are sufficient opportunities to be found in the present, not to mention the future. But the present means little without context, the past.

Let's back up a bit, to 2007:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



By early September, one would have had the choice of leaving his supply line alone or drawing a more severe one that followed price downward toward November:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



The choice is whether to hold on and exit only when absolutely necessary or exit sooner after the more severe supply line is broken in December. Volume can help here. Note how active trading is from September through November. And one needn't even know in real time that this is climactic. One needn't exit his short just because a line is broken. One needn't even draw it. He can hold onto his short until the low is tested is March, on less activity, then buy the reversal. He can even wait and buy the retracement in May. Or July. He needn't wait until his earlier supply line is broken in September. Unless he's stubborn.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



If one had bought the reversal, or the first retracement, or even the second retracment, he would never have had good reason to exit. He would still be in today what he entered six years ago. This is not, however, one of those Oh If Only I'd Bought Apple In 1983 nostalgia fests. 2009 is gone, as is 2007. And 2003. And 2000. But there are plenty of subsequent opportunities to enter and make money even if one enters the trending environment long after the opportunities such as those presented in '07 are well in the past, and these opportunities will most likely have to do with channels.

If one knows how to monitor the progress of the balance between demand and supply, with or without the help of demand/supply lines, he will be in a much better position to take advantage of these opportunities than those to whom price behavior is a total mystery. Back-testing helps one to understand how this trending-balancing act works, which is at least to some extent what back-testing is all about, not just a wallow in couldawouldashoulda. And until the day comes when price exits the current channel, one way or another, trading the upper and lower limits is the only course that makes any sense, at least if one is trading a mean-reverting instrument. That is, it's the only course that makes sense unless one is trying to trade a channel that isn't really there.

The following 10 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #233 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The following 4 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #234 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The following user says Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #235 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Newark, NJ
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Sierra
Favorite Futures: Index futures
 
Posts: 2 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 1 given, 1 received

Since this is formation is not " filled with price", it's not considered a hinge. Correct? What would you call it?

 
  #236 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received


WhyCough View Post
Since this is formation is not " filled with price", it's not considered a hinge. Correct? What would you call it?

There's the perfect hinge, the semi-perfect hinge, and the hinge that isn't a hinge at all. This is a semi-perfect hinge, which is the sort you'll run across often in a less-than-perfect world.

What matters is not the shape but the behavior. The range was established yesterday afternoon, then price made a series of higher lows until midnight, at which point traders attempted to make a higher high and failed to do so. All of this behavior provides information.

Then, having failed at that, price falls but makes an even higher low. Traders try to rally again, but fail again, creating another lower high. All of this behavior creates the hinge, which illustrates the efforts of buyers and sellers to determine fair value.

We've already fallen out of it, but there's been no drama. Unless and until the ES moves away from 20, I doubt the NQ will be able to mount an attack on 4700. We'll soon see.

The following 3 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #237 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received

Some people wonder what I think about and look for before and during the trading session, poor things. It starts with a post I made not long ago about learning how to draw an apple (you can probably find it with Search). But if the market is the territory and the plan is the map, there are signposts that I watch for that give me a pretty good idea what's going on, what's on traders' minds.

For example, take the chart I posted earlier this morning. The signposts here are the upper and lower limits of the hinge along with the apex:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Now let's look at how it all unfolded at and after the open using the 1m chart.

First, price reached and reversed at 60. After it reverses, there's plenty of time to determine the halfway level of the downmove. This is a signpost that will help gauge strength and weakness:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Price then rallies all the way to the apex of the hinge:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



When it does, we can determine the halfway level of the move up to that apex:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



It should come as no surprise that the car should pull over at this level and that everyone should get out and stretch their legs.

Then price resumes its journey and pulls over again at the opening low:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



We then idle for almost an hour. Then it's time for lunch.

The following 4 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #238 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received

Then it's back in the car and we head north:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).



Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

The following 6 users say Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #239 (permalink)
Banned: Vendor self-promotion
Phoenix AZ
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: IB
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: NQ
 
DbPhoenix's Avatar
 
Posts: 470 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 95 given, 1,543 received

It appears that the news from AAPL was not good, and as AAPL is the most heavily-weighted stock in the NDX and the second most-heavily-weighted in the SPX, it's not likely that we're going to reach the upper limit of the weekly trend channel (got close, though ). We'll see how things look in the morning.

Edit: Reviewing the most-heavily-weighted, only four in the NDX are showing strength and only one in the SPX. I let price drive the wagon, but it's interesting to find out where all that mud and potholes are coming from. Greece, for example, put us on a treadmill for days.


Last edited by DbPhoenix; July 21st, 2015 at 06:28 PM.
The following user says Thank You to DbPhoenix for this post:
 
  #240 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Toronto
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Broker
Favorite Futures: Stocks, ETF, Options
 
Posts: 8 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 32 given, 16 received

NQ area where demand gave up


There's a SL on NQ from 11/27 and 03/01 tops and it is turning out to be quite interesting to see price stall there again.

Gringo

Attached Thumbnails
Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday-nq-daily.png  
The following user says Thank You to Gring0 for this post:

Closed Thread



futures io > > > > Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
New strategy for trading CL intraday Ecko Commodities Futures Trading 12 October 9th, 2013 12:10 PM
Intraday-Trading: Trading-PC vs. VPS/Hosting Renkotrader German Traders 12 March 28th, 2013 11:43 AM
Could a 'Fiscal Cliff' Deal Include Cap on the AMT? Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 December 18th, 2012 02:40 PM
‘Fiscal Cliff’ Could Put Millions of Taxpayers Into ‘AMT Shock’ Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 29th, 2012 12:40 PM
Why Me? AMT to Trap Record 4.3 Million Taxpayers This Year Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 April 2nd, 2012 02:40 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:38 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-13 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.221.93.187