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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday
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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

  #171 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
So where was the trade today (just one)?

Here (?)

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  #172 (permalink)
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Yep.

Look at the 5s and think about how you'd play this, given that you'd already located that level well in advance.

 
  #173 (permalink)
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Seemed like a wild day.


As a review of what has happened during the day I'll go over what I thought about the day.

The general picture from the preparation was that the line of least resistance was down, price had broken the daily DL and had moved strongly away from it suggesting a move to the lower extreme of the trending range. Along with that, prior to open price was just below the MP of the previous days high-low which would suggest further weakness.

At this point though, price had made its way back above the swing lows from the start of the month at around 4390 and these could have had a part to play as the day unfolded.

Charts explain the opening sequence, the action that happened just after price broke below the MP threw me. For 10 minutes price got batted back and forth between 4400 and 3394, after seeing all this activity in that area along with prep suggesting weakness a long would have been off the table at the range low (possible mistake).
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The subsequent PA seemed wild and the best option at the time was to wait for price to get to either the ONL or the PDL, Price does get to the ONL and breaks it by enough of a margin to trigger a BO trade, but, with the PDL so close by I would have passed on this as it was 8 points from entry to target if price could get there.

Price rallied and choked on the mean of the premarket range which did not come as a surprise, by this point it is clear that it is a ranging day, and choppy given all the overlap I am seeing. Price makes it back to the ONL and pushes lower, but this is rejected again (DOG).

I swap between 1 and 5 minute time frame as I find it easier to manage on the 5 as the 1 minute can at times tie one in knots. Price cannot sustain a move beyond the ONL, it rallies back above the ONL breaking the SL and retracing, and whilst it does poke that level again it is rejected a third time, tracking the rally there is not much to think about, and once price reaches the previous day hi-lo MP (context) and chokes an exit could be taken on the failure.
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Gozilla.

On a side note, todays range straddled the previous daily swing low, or to be more precise, yesterdays low to todays high had a MP on the previous daily swing low, and that's roughly where price ended the day.

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  #174 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
The subsequent PA seemed wild and the best option at the time was to wait for price to get to either the ONL or the PDL, Price does get to the ONL and breaks it by enough of a margin to trigger a BO trade, but, with the PDL so close by I would have passed on this as it was 8 points from entry to target if price could get there.

If you're already short, why would you be concerned with a BO trade? Commentary apart from entry/exit considerations is fine, and useful. Part of the observation process. But if you're engaging in CWS, it's important to note that if you were short, none of the rest of the CWS would apply until 1100. After the short, the rest would be management. Therefore, I suggest you focus on that. If you didn't take the short, then all other entries present additional risks, and these risks won't carry much punch in hindsight (one of the worst habits to get in to is the "I wouldn't have taken that").

Doing PA reviews without fretting over entries and exits is foreign to most non-professional traders, but it is an important skill to learn, particularly as to do otherwise dredges up all the emotions that one is trying to do without.

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  #175 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
If you're already short, why would you be concerned with a BO trade?

By that point I was flat, Pre market I was working with a range of 4407 - 4390, just prior to the open price poked the upper part of the range, and as I have been stat collecting the 3 ticks it pushed by was not enough to constitute a break, live, sim, replay, backtest I would have mashed that sell button into the desk .

Price got to the lower extreme and pushed by a point, again, not enough to suggest a break is on the cards, price subsequently re-entered the range and tagged the mean. I gave it a chance, but the weak break and re-entry to the range would have been enough to exit.

Maybe it was an oversight to plan a trade on what may have been a narrower range, but it seemed like the most immediate range at the time given the overnight resistance becoming support.

CWS? I will probably when you tell me but I'm not familiar with the meaning.
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Price met my expectations up to that point, had I been working with the ONL - ONH that along with management would also have met expectations. Maybe I am just a little short sighted at times.

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  #176 (permalink)
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CWS=CouldaWouldaShoulda

In order to see what's happening at 4407.50, you'll need a 5s chart.

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  #177 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
CWS=CouldaWouldaShoulda

In order to see what's happening at 4407.50, you'll need a 5s chart.



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  #178 (permalink)
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It's not so much the LH. You're talking about 25 secs here, so there's not much time to think about it. You have your key level and you presumably want to go long at a break above that level. Depending on where your trigger is, if price doesn't trigger it, then you are faced with the option of bracketing the trade and entering whichever side price takes you. If price DOES trigger it, then you have to be calm enough to exit the failure and go short. But unless this is all considered ahead of time, most likely you'll be immobilized.

This comes up often. It's worth finding examples of this and replaying them in order to desensitize oneself to what can be the emotional baggage that this sort of entry carries with it.

Paradoxically, if one doesn't take the correct entry because of what is perceived to be the extra risk, any other entry carries greater risk. In confusion lies opportunity if you can remain calm when everybody else is being caught by surprise.

. . . the price you paid for a stock is absolutely irrelevant to where and when it should be sold. The level you bought it at has to do with a past act only, and brooding about the price (or gloating) cannot be allowed to impinge on analyzing its current behavior. No one else -- neither broker, specialist on the Exchange floor, accountant, nor the person who's about to buy the shares from you -- cares what price you happened to pay.

And, of course, if the price you paid for a stock has no practical significance, then neither does the price you sold out at, except for your taxes. Grasping this point is the key to dealing with your own emotional involvement, for price is the peg that emotional hats get hung on. That being the case, we must learn to view the market as cold numbers rather than as emotional dollars, just the way the Dow averages are read as abstract points.

--Justin Mamis


Last edited by DbPhoenix; June 30th, 2015 at 09:59 PM.
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  #179 (permalink)
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It's amazing the calibre of conversation one can have when threads arent hijacked by trolls. Thanks @Gozilla and @DbPhoenix.

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  #180 (permalink)
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As we're on the subject, I'll quote myself from the SLAB:

Trading plans invariably become egocentric. A few traders get past that and move on to a different level, but most of those who begin the process of developing a trading plan do not (most traders, of course, don't begin at all). Because the process is egocentric, the chief concerns are where do I enter, where do I exit, what should my target be, what should my stop be, how much risk can I tolerate, and so on. The character of the market itself is a secondary issue at best. What is paramount is how the market can serve the ego rather than the other way around.

The market couldn't care less about the trader's entries and exits and stops. The market couldn't care less about what the trader wants. The market couldn't care less about the trader's personality. The market functions in a certain way. It has a certain structure. If a trader is to be truly successful, i.e., more than just "getting by", he must understand these functions and this structure, neither of which have anything whatsoever to do with him.

One begins, of course, again, by observing the market, characterizing it, then formulating hypotheses that tentatively explain its movements. One then tests those hypotheses in order to determine whether or not they are true, i.e., predictable and reliable. Only after all this do the matters of how to take advantage of what one has determined come into the picture, i.e., entrances, exits, stops, etc. It is at this point that the process becomes almost entirely egocentric, e.g., how much risk can I tolerate, and the market itself becomes largely ignored except insofar as it serves the trader's needs and wants. But the market couldn't care less about the trader's needs and wants. And this results in a perpetual frustration among those who focus on themselves rather than on the behavior of price (which is the aggregate of the behaviors of everyone who is participating in the market). If, for example, the trader is focused not only on breakeven but on getting to breakeven as quickly as possible, he is focusing not on the market but on himself. One of the more obvious consequences of this, particularly if the trader is "stopped out", is that the trader dwells or even obsesses over his "failed trade" and completely ignores what the market has told him by having come back to or exceeded his entry point, thus preventing him from evaluating the situation and preparing for the next trade, especially if it happens to be in the opposite direction.

I suggest, therefore, that those who are serious about developing trading plans focus on the market and on price behavior rather than on themselves, unless they want to spend years trying to reconcile two forces which are in many ways mutually incompatible. If one enters correctly, for example, issues of stops and breakeven and size and "targets" become irrelevant. If one doesn't enter correctly, then of course he has to exit. But his doing so has nothing to do with his hopes and needs and wants and desires. Rather it has to do with the fact that he read the market incorrectly. One should, in fact, once he has entered a trade, forget about the fact that he entered the trade at all and instead focus on the market. Only in this way will he become "available" to profit from what the market has to offer.

Nearly all traders except for beginners are in a quandary: they are eager to trade yet are afraid to trade (beginners have not yet learned fear). Thus they seek to exploit the market while simultaneously insulating themselves from any negative consequences of attempting to do so. That's what the bulk of the books and blogs and articles and trading rooms and newsletters et al infinitum are all about. Only an infinitesimally small number of them are focused on why price moves as it does. Which is why there are so many books and blogs and so forth.

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