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I should say that a chart helps those who can read it or rather who can assimilate what they read. The average chart reader, however, is apt to become obsessed with the notion that the dips and peaks and primary and secondary movements are all there is to stock speculation. If he pushes his confidence to its logical limit he is bound to go broke.
There is an extremely able man, a former partner of a well-known Stock Exchange house, who is really a trained mathematician. He is a graduate of a famous technical school. He devised charts based upon a very careful and minute study of the behaviour of prices in many markets -- stocks, bonds, grain, cotton, money, and so on. He went back years and years and traced the correlations and seasonal movements -- oh, everything. He used his charts in his stock trading for years.
What he really did was to take advantage of some highly intelligent averaging. They tell me he won regularly -- until the World War knocked all precedents into a cocked hat. I heard that he and his large following lost millions before they desisted. But not even a world war can keep the stock market from being a bull market when conditions are bullish, or a bear market when conditions are bearish.
And all a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions.
Until the lens of experience focuses information, it does almost no good. No matter how much the marketing machines of the Information Age would have us think otherwise, information by itself isn't power: knowledge is. And turning information into knowledge requires more time, experience, and effort than an afternoon spent staring at a screen full of facts.
Information is passive. To make it knowledge, you need to assimilate it. Put it in context. Understand it. Knowledge streamlines and focuses our relationship with information. Knowledge helps us avoid information we don't want or need and leaves us with the stuff we can use.
In an age in which endless amounts of bits and bytes are always available, it's a daunting task to spot the worthwhile stuff. It's easy for the Net to overwhelm us or lull us into the misconception that simply having access to something is as good as knowing it.
from Larry Phillips' book, Zen and the Art of Poker:
Patience (edited)
RULE #1: Learn to use inaction as a weapon.
RULE #2: Don't get irritated or angered by long session of folding.
RULE #3: If you've been folding a lot, for a long time in the game, and you're starting to think that maybe it's time you got in and played a few hands again – that's not a good enough reason. Keep folding.
RULE #4: Don't feel like a martyr when folding.
RULE#5: Sometimes others get to play and you don't. Make peace with this idea. Cross your arms and sit back.
RULE#6: To win at poker you must embrace the idea of breaking even. A distaste for breaking even can lead us into the valley of pressing and overplaying and other wrongful activity.
RULE #7: Regard patience as a central pillar of your game and strategy. Don't assign it a secondary or lesser role.
RULE #8: Keep plugging away. Expect nothing. There will be times when you play tight, keep playing tight, and keep on playing tight, and it still does no good; the bad cards just keep coming. You may have to just keep doing it until the end, with no reward at all.
RULE #9: Don't fall into the "Now Trap." Players want to win now, today. Results must happen now, in this hand, the one right in front of us. We assign a little more importance to where we are. We make it bigger, more important. But we do this timewise, too; we assign things more importance because they are happening in the present moment. Yet giving greater importance to the present in the game of poker allows us to imagine marginal hands into good hands and good hands into great hands.
RULE #10: The long run is longer than you think. Playing only the best hands can be frustrating. Anger and irritability can arise. The emotions can be severely tested. This is where Zen comes in.
RULE #11: Don't defend patience too strongly. You can't make yourself go to sleep through sheer strength of will. It is not about the strength of commitment; it is more of a gentler thing, a letting go.
RULE#12: Don't be impatient about patience. Your brain is telling you to play patiently while your emotions are saying, "What's taking so long?" These two must be in alignment.
RULE #13: Occupy yourself while you are not playing. The fact is, if you are playing correctly, you are going to be doing a lot of folding, so you need to think of ways to fill this time. If you hate this period of time when you're not playing, and some do, it will have the effect of throwing your game out of kilter.
RULE #14: Begin by playing tight, but don't forget to stay tight. The important thing is not who possesses the control and discipline at the start of the game, but who possesses it at the middle, the end, and all points throughout.
RULE #15: Discipline your game. It is more like patience, pacing yourself (especially emotionally) for the length of the game. It is different than mere patience, however. It comes from a larger and longer-term view of things, one that steps back and sees things as a whole.
Try to ask this sort of question at least 15m before the open.
The premkt range had no well-defined limits. One could have bought a break of the premkt high at 38.75, but to get anything out of it, you'd've had to use a wide stop. In any case, it didn't get far, and probably won't until something is decided this week about Greece.
After the break and break failure at 38.75, price rallied again and formed a hinge from 094320 to 094445. This offered a springboard for a clean break up to 50+, which isn't bad, but you'd have to take the profit without hesitating as it all evaporated shortly thereafter.
Correct. It also provides a good example of what I've quoted so often: if it doesn't move, you don't want to be there. Note that when price "broke" 38.75, nothing much happened. It just waffled for two minutes then fell back to 34. Compare this to how price moved off that springboard. That's what you want to see. If you don't see it, "you don't want to be there". IOW, other buyers aren't willing to pay the ask; why should you be?
