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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday
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Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

  #151 (permalink)
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Gozilla View Post
Seems like price is revolving around the mean of the previous days high-low at 35, not much to think about until price gets to or surpasses the
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I'd focus more on the extremes of the range as that's where the balancing is taking place. But given the weakness in the ES, I wouldn't expect much. Or hang around for long if you have something more interesting to do. The longer you watch this, the easier it will be to see opportunities that aren't there. Which is why I've been taking breaks to weed the garden.

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  #152 (permalink)
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My attempt for today



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  #153 (permalink)
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If you made only two trades and then quit, that's a big improvement.

Given the way you're collecting data, both graphically and numerically, you can go back over what you have and note or analyze how price behaves in a range and how it behaves as and after it leaves one. That may not prevent you from trading within ranges, but it will have implications for how and where you exit and how much room you give price to get where you expect it to go. If you use price targets, there will be implications for that as well.

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  #154 (permalink)
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Yes Db, so far I have been working in the study of the charts and trying to translate this data in numbers in order to have objective information, in any case I will try to upload this as soon as possible

 
  #155 (permalink)
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What happens next?

Price appears to have given up on trying to push higher and is now making a move lower to the daily range mean/DL beyond this level lies the last swing low at 4390 +/-.
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The hourly chart compliments the daily, the rally into a level that price has been unable to make its way beyond followed by the ranging and subsequent rejections on a spike higher could, or should have been taken as a warning.
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Lower time frame chart to show the possible location of an entry today.
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  #156 (permalink)
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Observing and analyzing and playing with hypotheses and possible new tactics and reconfigurations of old ones is always to the good. Helps one from getting stale. However, avoid making changes solely due to boredom, particularly when the bases for those changes is hindsight.

As I've spent a great deal of time studying how price behaves within a range and how it behaves without, I look at what goes on as it reaches the limits of those ranges, such as 4490 and 4517 today. Yes, price broke below 4490 just before 1100, but it reversed there. And didn't try again for an hour and a half. If one knows that there is going to be a reward for sitting there and doing nothing for an hour and a half, then he might decide to do just that the next time. But the next time nothing happens. So the trader trades anyway because after all he's been sitting there for so long. And those bad habits come rushing back.

If the trader were snowbound, there might be some excuse for hanging around, if he is physiologically and psychologically capable of doing so. But there's really no reason for that this time of year. The trades that look great in hindsight very often have no logical reason for being. If we look for those reasons to rationalize and justify trades that were or might have been taken off-plan, more likely we're just looking for bunnies in clouds.

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  #157 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
Observing and analyzing and playing with hypotheses and possible new tactics and reconfigurations of old ones is always to the good. Helps one from getting stale. However, avoid making changes solely due to boredom, particularly when the bases for those changes is hindsight.

Good advice..

I wasn't thinking about making changes to my entries etc, just the conditions under which I would take entries. Maybe looking outside of the first 90 minutes etc.

Probably more a reflection of my lack of experience in dull markets....

Was there something I said specifically that piqued your interest?

 
  #158 (permalink)
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damnpenguins View Post
Good advice..

I wasn't thinking about making changes to my entries etc, just the conditions under which I would take entries. Maybe looking outside of the first 90 minutes etc.

Probably more a reflection of my lack of experience in dull markets....

Was there something I said specifically that piqued your interest?

Experience in dull markets, or any kind of market, is always a plus. The danger in dull markets lies in those hindsight I Could Have taken that, which becomes I Should Have taken that, which become I Would Have taken that if only, and there you are. Now there's nothing wrong with pursuing the couldawouldashoulda into further testing if one isn't sick of it. But then there's always the very real possibility that whatever one finds will apply only to dull markets and that as soon as things pick up again all that work goes right out the window (though one can also save it for the next dull market).

And there was nothing you said specifically. But there is a lot of antsy-ness going around, and I'd hate to see you guys start backsliding. As for looking beyond 90m, sure, why not? Only you know whether you can stare at a screen that long or not. The danger lies in waiting and waiting and waiting for an opportunity, then taking it if it presents itself, and then the trade doesn't work out. So you've sat there for two hours or more for nothing. This isn't good for the psyche.

That's why I always quit by 1100 unless we're in the middle of a trend day. I know that if the market hasn't moved by then, it probably won't, or if it does, it may take hours to do so, and I don't love this that much.

Chacun a son gout, though.

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  #159 (permalink)
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Cheers.

That sounds about right... Sod's Law as applied to trading; If you hang around until 1100, the trade will come at 1130...

Each to their own indeed

The thing that got me was staying on the sidelines when I'd done the work to get to this point. To me, it is a fine line between hesitance and discipline. One being an excuse and the other quite reasonable.

I'm thinking I fell on the side of prudence this week, but I would have liked last weeks market for my first week trading live again.

 
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Another scrap from the attic:

So you ignore the fact that price made more than thirty points in no time at all and that the only people who are going to be suckered into this "pullback" are those who were too cowardly or too ignorant or too sleepy or too unprepared to have taken the trade they were supposed to take, which of course are the same people who are going to be the first to panic when things go wrong, which is what happens two bars later. But you've already bought it and made yet another tuition payment. And it isn't even lunch yet . . .

So you take that hour to sit back and ruminate on the meaning of life, or at least the meaning of your life, and you try to decide whether or not you ought just to say the hell with it and get a real job. And eventually you decide to stick with it for at least a little while longer. However, you also decide to punish yourself in future, not by jumping into trades that you have absolutely no business jumping in to, but by sitting on your hands when you've failed to act appropriately and "in a timely fashion". You decide to call it The Preclusion Rule: you don't take any trade that you wouldn't be taking if you had taken the trade you should have taken in the first place (you may add something like "you stupid idiot", if you like.)

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