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meanVelocity's Thread
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meanVelocity's Thread

  #71 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Goodie... Ok, 2056 is today resistance area. Good idea to pull positions here unless you plan on holding overnight. Some profit takers will appear soon.

Not a short setup.

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  #72 (permalink)
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Now, let me pull a magic number out on where I currently expect topping this week... 2073

However, take that with a grain of salt... We won't know exactly until like Thursday. Best estimate at the moment.

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  #73 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
Goodie... Ok, 2056 is today resistance area. Good idea to pull positions here unless you plan on holding overnight. Some profit takers will appear soon.

Not a short setup.

Dang, that was a short setup...

Little more than normal profit taking happened off that level.

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  #74 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
Now, let me pull a magic number out on where I currently expect topping this week... 2073

However, take that with a grain of salt... We won't know exactly until like Thursday. Best estimate at the moment.

Magic number hit. Calling short term top today around this price on the cash. We drop into next week.

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  #75 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
Magic number hit. Calling short term top today around this price on the cash. We drop into next week.

NQ looking the same way so far...

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  #76 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
NQ looking the same way so far...

Pulling shorts NQ breaching yesterdays range... Stops are taken out! Winner winner chicken dinner.

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  #77 (permalink)
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You know what my thought for Today was...

That extreme gap up brought in a whole bunch of people with buy orders throwing them at the market hand over fist. Toward noon those buy orders died away and that is why the market slid slowly downward all day in a beeline.

The people who were buying into that were idiots/last fools, but their order stream didn't give out fully until later in the day.


I have recently realized markets are ridiculously simple... Rallies attract buyers. How many people a move up attracts depends upon investors/traders emotional state and news catalysts.

When a move stops attracting buyers, it consolidates or collapses. Eg, it returns to Mean, or it stays in place while Mean returns to price.

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  #78 (permalink)
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It's hard to attract many buyers or sellers to knock the market out of whack and far away from fundamentals without a news catalyst.

Now, let me share my weekly market chart...

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This market is was absurdly overstretched today... These kind of events are rare. Very very low probability of the market holding onto these kind of price levels for any amount of time.

The psychological anchoring effect as described in behavioral finance is critical to understand here. People perceive these prices as extremely high and won't be comfortable with them until they see how the market behaves during the consolidation/retrace.

It takes time for people to grow comfortable with higher price levels. I am still not completely convinced this market will hold up until around Jan/Feb until I see how it behaves when momentum is fully lost over the next couple weeks.

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  #79 (permalink)
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*Pats self on back...* Phew, I am fully back in sync with this market.

I was only a point off on my short term top estimate, LoL... Srgtroy, can you guess how I came up with that number? Hint: It requires a chart drawing tool.

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  #80 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
*Pats self on back...* Phew, I am fully back in sync with this market.

I was only a point off on my short term top estimate, LoL... Srgtroy, can you guess how I came up with that number? Hint: It requires a chart drawing tool.

First, good call on today's high @72/73s. I don't know if that call was a function of pure chance, skill or a combination of the two. Nevertheless, I hope you took the trade and profited. That said, I'm still inherently suspicious when I hear market predictions without any meaningful/actionable analysis (not to mention the fact that risk considerations are absent from many of your calls). This is your thread, so I won't pester you much about it, but I think many people would be much more receptive of your posts if your analysis consisted of more than a few arbitrary resistance levels, every time we approach new all-time highs.

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