meanVelocity's Thread - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


meanVelocity's Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:9,632 / 213
Created: by meanVelocity Attachments:3

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 3  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

meanVelocity's Thread

  #51 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

I actually have not lost a single trade this week. A couple basically scratched, and two performed decent. I have a max position hold time of 3-5 bars from the setup candle.

I have only been looking for shorts at the resistance area. This rally is very odd in that each day we seem to reach the same resistance zone except for that one day when the japan news surprised the market.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


I am pretty strict when it comes to counter setups. Market must be near or higher than the first resistance area, and there must be a short timeframe setup. (5m/15m)

The best setup Monday would be a buy setup around 2016 based upon the cash. However, you guys can have it... I will wait to short the next move toward new highs if the market dips.

Reply With Quote
 
  #52 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

I guess you could say I am kinda a permabear, but I am a smart permabear.

I know were in a rally, and I know we have no confirmed momentum loss, so I only short when the market is highly overextended to the upside to the degree it will snap back to short term mean.

Any shorts positioned at even three day average prices still have a 99% probability of going deep underwater over a few days.


I was kinda hoping for the jobs report to catalyze a big pop in the market this morning out of the gate so the market would get pushed far into the elastic zone (Resistance) to provide a great shorting opportunity, but that didn't happen.

Reply With Quote
 
  #53 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received


"Any shorts positioned at even three day average prices still have a 99% probability of going deep underwater over a few days."

Let me clarify this...

Let us look at prices in relation to six day mean... Using a ten period statistical analysis tool. Prices are maintaining a 100% probability of touching mean + half a range. Over the last ten days, not a single day has failed to at least touch mean or mean + 0.5.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Momentum markets and rallies usually do not suddenly have a major change without some unexpected news. We should see the same type of transition as June/July or September to a weaker market. Two weeks out the probability of prices touching above/below mean should be pretty balanced.

However, here is the powerful thing... If you really know your stuff, you can still find short setups because people will always get scared and take profits. It doesn't matter if the rally isn't over, people don't know that!

Reply With Quote
 
  #54 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

Now, if you were to ask me if I would advise holding a short position for more than a few months...

It's not a good idea, yet... The S&P is rising at 22 points/month on average, with a average range of 85 points. However, based upon a weakening momentum curve, 20 points/month move up in resistance or a little less is what things look like right now.

There is plenty of meat in this market for the bears. You could say this market is averaging 105 points to the bulls per month, and 60 points to the bears.

Reply With Quote
 
  #55 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

This is very far out... But, provided no unexpected market catalysts, there is a potential for a crash somewhere around February.

As always, we shall just have to see how things set up... But, market velocity increases contract cycle durations.

We had a six month rally into 2013, then a seven month into 2014, then a five month rally into the recent correction. Now with this velocity increase, duration should contract further to around three months...

That old saying "What goes straight up, comes straight back down...". It's pretty accurate. Slow rallies can sustain a long time, but violent ones burn out fast. Too many people are taking notice of this fast market rise.


Last edited by meanVelocity; November 9th, 2014 at 02:53 AM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #56 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

Yawnn, just woke up... We started quite a bit below resistance today. Hmmm... Weekly resistance is 2064.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


To fade a bounce toward 2040 or not... I think I am going back to sleep. It's not that likely the market has a major drop from resistance until late session if at all. People are well rested and relaxed over the weekend and not much news.

Reply With Quote
 
  #57 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

Yea, the dip after the 2040 test was kinda weak like expected... Just under four points. Boo!

Will be interesting to see if the S&P manages to retest the 2034 area toward close. Going to be much better short setups mid/late week.

Reply With Quote
 
  #58 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

Btw, my candles probably look damn alien to people. The orange pillars indicate potential bubble formation. When a speculative bubble forms without any unexpected market moving news, it usually collapses back to it's start point, or at least price returns to mean.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


A lot of the same idiots that got sucked into Fridays bubble got sucked into today. Speculators, sheesh! Market is only rising by 2.8 points per five hours people... Don't chase!

Reply With Quote
 
  #59 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

And, here is one little neat thing in the bigger picture. This is the S&P weekly. Notice, bubble after bubble after bubble over the last couple years. Surges of speculators driving price far above mean for a while, then it pops.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Were currently in a bubble which could easily pop in late November dropping us down to 1975. Odds of 1950 are kinda a coin flip near term.

I'm kinda looking for the late 2013 pattern to repeat. Dual wave, or triple wave before collapse in late winter.

Reply With Quote
 
  #60 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received


I probably won't be stopping by the forum again this week. Market action is going to start to ramp mid/late week. Going to be focus time!

Market might actually weaken to the point we don't need new highs for a good short setup, lol!

Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > meanVelocity's Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Marking apost in a thread as "answer to this thread" DionysusToast Off-Topic 2 January 21st, 2014 07:41 PM
A p/l thread. Cloudy Traders Hideout 1 February 19th, 2012 02:25 AM
FF allows the THREAD STARTER to ignore posters so they can NOT post in their thread. TheRumpledOne Off-Topic 2 September 19th, 2009 01:53 AM
Welcome Back Thread ! max-td Traders Hideout 0 June 17th, 2009 02:22 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:44 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-14 in 0.13 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.90.207.75