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meanVelocity's Thread
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Created: by meanVelocity Attachments:3

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meanVelocity's Thread

  #31 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Oh, and to those who have not noticed... The DOW is heading for a parabolic blowoff. It has shot far past sustainable trend velocity.

Going to be a wild week ahead... Kinda makes me think DOW 18k is on the way after the next correction.

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  #32 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Hello all... I am waiting out this consolidation cycle and won't be shorting anything until mid/late week. Short term trend strength is just too high to capture much downside shorting resistance. On the 1/3rd and Half Session charts it's running at 1.7-1.8.

I should not be countering until we drop down to around 1.25... The psychology of the long side investors and speculators in the market is highly reinforced by these higher prices reducing volatility way down...

My trend strength scale goes like this...

<= 1 = Weak
> 1 = Moderate
> 2 = Strong
> 3 = Extreme

Market failure generally can't occur until were near 1.0.

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  #33 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Whats interesting is the 2007 top was set with a monthly uptrend strength of 1.1, and the .com bubble bear market started at a uptrend strength of 0.75. Eg, that was the strength at the last swing high before the collapse.

The broad market monthly is running at 1.4, and the NASDAQ monthly is 1.6...

Going to be a while until we have a true bear market, unless the NAS goes upside parabolic like the end of the .com bubble.

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  #34 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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This channel breakout triggered by that Japanese QE and their pension fund moving 300Bil into equities is an EXTREMELY rare event. There is only two other times in the last couple years where an upside breakout of channel in a strong uptrend like this has occurred.

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Not wise to short anything until price starts trading back inside channel, or bullish sentiment gets extreme.

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  #35 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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I was just glancing at TT's thread, and people were talking about the low volatility... Knowing why volatility changes is more important than looking at the levels.

Volatility generally lowers for one very simple reason...

When prices are going up fast, and they are high... It makes investors and long side speculators very comfortable. They do not scare easily and are highly confident in their positions. Generally the financial media switches to more positive headlines during market rallies which helps reinforce investor confidence. People look for positive rationalizations and positive rationalizations sell in these times. The media just goes with the flow! There is nothing abnormal about it.

Volatility will start to ramp up a bit once momentum burns away next week or so. Depends upon the way things set up for the pullback.

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  #36 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Ok, going to town to get some stuff done...

Resistance for late session today is around 2027-29 on the S&P.

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  #37 (permalink)
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Hmmm... Did I overestimate resistance yesterday? We only reached 2026... *Checks numbers...* Nope!

Some people are getting a bit of Vertigo. Holding a long position on a very slow grind into all time new highs is not for the faint of heart... I couldn't do it!

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  #38 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
Oh, and to those who have not noticed... The DOW is heading for a parabolic blowoff. It has shot far past sustainable trend velocity.

The DOW has had a calm blowoff... Well, that defuses that risk. If it was going to spike down a few percent suddenly it would have happened by now.

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  #39 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Well, getting confirmation the bull run is over. Thank goodness! Only a strong close above 2016 today on the S&P could reconfirm it.

Time to start shorting resistance setups after new highs for real! As in, putting some big $$ in play. Good luck all, things should setup for great shorting Thursday.


Last edited by meanVelocity; November 4th, 2014 at 03:53 PM. Reason: Phrasing...
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  #40 (permalink)
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The news that is going to drive the next corrective move around two to three weeks out from this point is going to be negative news out of Europe.

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