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meanVelocity's Thread
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meanVelocity's Thread

  #191 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
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Die bulltards, die!!!

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  #192 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Yawn... Cyall tomorrow!

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  #193 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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I'm hoping for a great short setup at 2080+, or even 2090... But, we will just have to trade what the market gives us!

Tomorrow resistance moves from the 75-80 of today to 80+ on the cash.

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  #194 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Resistance zone actually isn't moving as high as expected with that weak close. The jobs report tends to be a pretty decent emotional catalyst though. It can blow us right through these levels either direction.

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  #195 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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If you guys are interested in analyzing resistance test and mean return probabilities... I have a script on my blog you can have for SierraChart.

meanVelocity Statistics

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  #196 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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I'm going to "try" to stay out of this thread so that I am fully focused tomorrow... Not capturing nearly as many points as I should be. Also... It's a good day to daytrade some spy options too.


Here is a full re-review of the daily chart for tomorrow. These levels will essentially be the same into tomorrows open.

Market strength is declining... Not to the level I would worry about correction, but we could easily slip down to the lower range again into next week.

As for support and resistance... The primary levels are shown. We didn't really have much for news catalysts today and stayed nicely between the lines from 2063 to 2077. Tomorrow... We likely color outside the lines. If we break to the downside I would suggest waiting until Mon/Tuesday until hitting the bid. If we end up in the 2050 support area investors are not going to feel that great about holding long positions through the weekend... Be very careful!

Hopefully we break to the upside for great risk/reward short setups off resistance. Edit: PS, Core uptrend rate is only 2 points per day right now on the S&P.

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Last edited by meanVelocity; December 4th, 2014 at 05:57 PM.
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  #197 (permalink)
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With those statistics tools I posted above... You can analyze all sorts of interesting things.

Like... Over the last 100 days, the S&P has been maintaining a...

84% probability of return to touch 3SMA Each Day
64% probability of return to touch 4SMA Each Day
52% probability of return to touch 5SMA Each Day

Currently, we are currently in a disproportionately high mean return situation compared to long term average.

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  #198 (permalink)
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A naysayer might be thinking "All markets probably maintain the same statistics..." Haha... If only that were so.

Silver currently maintains 89/82/69 mean return probability on the daily.

Far stronger mean return characteristics than the S&P's 84/64/52 for the 3/4/5 SMA. Grab the tools and see for yourself. As they say... "Seeing is believing!"

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  #199 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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Now... One last post before I go...

I should be being a LOT more aggressive about fading highs and lows right now. This high mean return phase will only last so long.

The market is at a point where the probability of touching highs and lows is balancing out. That is because the rally is losing momentum. The market will eventually shift into a new state once people recognize the current state. People will only get "whipsawed" for so long until they all start mean return trading, then the market will start to shift back into trending state... Haha

Over the last month the market has mounted a steadily decline in trending, increased mean return, and increased probability of touching support levels.

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  #200 (permalink)
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Hello @meanVelocity

I have a question, I see you posted stats % for (x) variables... Do you have a program that calculates this for you or do you do it manually?

thx for reply in advance
R

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