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meanVelocity's Thread
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meanVelocity's Thread

  #11 (permalink)
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Ok, I'm officially bored... Going back to sleep! Nothing is setting up right today, and I saw the 50% retrace a few minutes too late. Going to be better trade setups next week. I normally have a rule not to trade on OPEX, however... I thought volatility would stay up a little better.

Here is one last chart... This shows my proprietary volatility index on the Weekly. Short to medium term upside potential is always relative to just how fearful people have gotten.
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Yes, I am expecting about the same scenario as the last two times this happened... We need to retest lows again once or twice.


Last edited by meanVelocity; October 17th, 2014 at 02:14 PM. Reason: Wrong Image
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  #12 (permalink)
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I do look over a lot of different data when analyzing the big picture... US markets have been "Statistically Weakening" since spring. They have been spending less time touching resistance. Same thing occurred at the end of the .com bubble and 2007 bubble.

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It doesn't actually make me all that bearish, yet... It does confirm we are headed into a heck of a lot more volatility! This is a bigger and stronger bubble, so it's behavior should be more like the .com bubble. At least half a year of sideways volatility before collapse.

The probability of return to six month mean or higher over each two months locks at 99%+ probability until the day these bull markets break... Talk about slanted odds...

If you look over certain statistics on the behavior of the S&P you realize just how artificial our markets are. They are nothing like the theoretical statistical behavior that markets are supposed to have!


Last edited by meanVelocity; October 18th, 2014 at 02:13 AM.
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  #13 (permalink)
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You know, it's kind of interesting... The Greenspan Put created a entire decade of risk-free long side investing. The Bernanke Put gave us five years, but what about Yellen?

Yellen is slightly changing here tone lately. It's almost like she's a dove changing her feathers. If she changes her tone and the Yellen Put is pulled, the market will crash 50% within a week. I have a hunch one of those fed statements are going to be the Black Swan event of 2015. Read them carefully!

US long term market behavior transitioned to more of a Linear system after 1986... But, eventually it should return to a fractal system. Central bankers will only "Fix" this game so long until they get tired of it and realize it's all for naught!

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  #14 (permalink)
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Leading indicators start turnover tomorrow. Market heads into a consolidation cycle into late week.

I'm actually kinda surprised investors have emotionally recovered so fast. I don't foresee any great shorting opportunities until around two weeks from here!


Last edited by meanVelocity; October 21st, 2014 at 03:37 PM.
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  #15 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
A lot of big boys "think" this setup is identical to the early 2014 setup, but sorry... It's not! This is going to be a rough ride...

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What went wrong on this call?

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  #16 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
What went wrong on this call?

The big boys were right, LoL...

But, seriously... Straight back to near the highs without a dip to let anyone in? That's a bit ridiculous. I have never seen a straight V bottom that strong in a scenario like that.

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  #17 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
The big boys were right, LoL...

But, seriously... Straight back to near the highs without a dip to let anyone in? That's a bit ridiculous. I have never seen a straight V bottom that strong in a scenario like that.

200 points isn't a big enough "dip" for you? 2014 to 1813. Plenty of opportunity to be buying.

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  #18 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
200 points isn't a big enough "dip" for you? 2014 to 1813. Plenty of opportunity to be buying.

Mike

Heh... The depth was fine. It's just the V bottom part I didn't like. I like setups more fractalized.

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meanVelocity View Post
Heh... The depth was fine. It's just the V bottom part I didn't like. I like setups more fractalized.

It's very similar to the last dip in July/August so far, just more volatility. In that instance, after the lowest low was made, it took only two days to take out the prior five days high. With the recent event, it took four days to take out the prior seven day high. Pretty similar in my opinion.

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  #20 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
The big boys were right, LoL...

But, seriously... Straight back to near the highs without a dip to let anyone in? That's a bit ridiculous. I have never seen a straight V bottom that strong in a scenario like that.


Big Mike View Post
200 points isn't a big enough "dip" for you? 2014 to 1813. Plenty of opportunity to be buying.

Mike


meanVelocity View Post
Heh... The depth was fine. It's just the V bottom part I didn't like. I like setups more fractalized.

Strong parabolic moves tend to end like that. Almost like a ball hitting the ground and bouncing back...

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