meanVelocity's Thread - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


meanVelocity's Thread
Updated: Views / Replies:8,879 / 213
Created: by meanVelocity Attachments:3

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 3  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

meanVelocity's Thread

  #131 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

Wow... I did not see that before... This NASDAQ scenario looks exactly like were currently in late 1999.

Same momentum levels, duration at those momentum levels, and everything.

If the past repeats... Nasdaq 100 blasts through .com bubble highs... Then collapses... Everyone who went through the .com bubble is going to be feeling a lot of deja-vu.

I don't really expect that much of an explosion though. The memories of the .com bubble bust are a reminder of the past, and should dampen peoples propensity to go into full flat out mania like that. A lot of traders/investors in tech still remember those days.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to meanVelocity for this post:
 
  #132 (permalink)
3rd times a charm!
San Francisco CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Zxeses's Avatar
 
Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received


meanVelocity View Post
In order for me to become bearish the Nasdaq 100... One of these two scenarios must happen.

1. It must fully lose momentum and start to chop sideways... Would be a six to nine month process at minimum.

2. It must explode upward through 4500 toward 5000 into the start of next year with sentiment going into full mania.

I agree with you mean, its like we're re-living the 1920's all over again. I'd give it about 10 months from now, but honestly I hope its not till 2016... but an 8 year run is not hopeful on such a bad economy.

Reply With Quote
 
  #133 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received



Zxeses View Post
I agree with you mean, its like we're re-living the 1920's all over again. I'd give it about 10 months from now, but honestly I hope its not till 2016... but an 8 year run is not hopeful on such a bad economy.

Actually... Current markets are kinda paradoxical. A bad economy is bullish as it means no interest rate rises, LoL...

Also, this bull market would have never happened without the 2008 crash. The 2008 crash generated intense psychological fear of market drops in our policymakers. This fear is driving their continual market supporting actions.

You could say this is a fear driven bull market. That's why it behaves so strangely compared to natural bull markets. Volume behavior is different at tops and etc...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to meanVelocity for this post:
 
  #134 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

You have to remember though... Investor confidence in our central banks and policymakers can be fickle. Their actions only help markets as long as people keep confidence and believe in their leadership.

Investors could easily start to become disillusioned with the continual micromanagement and market support measures. Optimism could start to fade away in a couple years even with continual market support measures. This is why the "shock and awe" tactics recently came out of Japan. Investors over there were starting to become disillusioned, so it requires even more insane actions to keep investor confidence up!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to meanVelocity for this post:
 
  #135 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

European markets were getting ready to slide right into a bear market recently before these new global support programs went into play. ECB balance sheet expansion in the EU, Japan central bank actions, etc...

It's a well timed save that will probably only give EU markets about a year or so more time before danger of investor confidence collapse arrives again, then... More extreme measures will be required to keep investors together.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to meanVelocity for this post:
 
  #136 (permalink)
3rd times a charm!
San Francisco CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Zxeses's Avatar
 
Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received


meanVelocity View Post
First, lets review the .com mania... In this current scenario, I would go bearish with a mere 1999 style upside blast off.

However, a year 2000 style upside detonation would make me more bearish and declare the bull market over. We only have about two more months for this to happen. The clock is ticking.


Here is our current levels... We could head into mania in a couple months. We shall see!

Why wont it happen? because there is still too much money in the market. In late 1999's we were bleeding cash on all fronts. (Uneducated speculative cash is bleeding)...

We are still flush with cash and the hope that other countries will come in with fresh cash will keep us buoyed until it runs out. It will still take some time for sentiment to dry up as well. Even then, you still have all those "it always will go up, just buy it" people who think that there will be a repeat of the 1900's, while not factoring in the evidence that the next 30 years is the recovery period of the upcoming pullback.

I'm excited though, the higher the VIX goes the better! Bring on the bears, bring on the bulls, just stop going sideways!

Reply With Quote
 
  #137 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

It's all got to do with investor psychology.

When investors lose all sense of caution and jump into the market willy nilly it generates a speculative bubble that blows up in their faces. That event creates a psychological fear anchor in their memory to not jump into a fast rising market.

However, once that memory has faded... Then there is risk of a massive speculative overshoot in the markets again. You can see this in short term trading too. If there is a massive ramp one day that blows up... The market will act more cautious for a while. You won't see another parabolic rally for quite a while afterward.



Zxeses View Post
Why wont it happen? because there is still too much money in the market. In late 1999's we were bleeding cash on all fronts. (Uneducated speculative cash is bleeding)...

We are still flush with cash and the hope that other countries will come in with fresh cash will keep us buoyed until it runs out. It will still take some time for sentiment to dry up as well. Even then, you still have all those "it always will go up, just buy it" people who think that there will be a repeat of the 1900's, while not factoring in the evidence that the next 30 years is the recovery period of the upcoming pullback.

I'm excited though, the higher the VIX goes the better! Bring on the bears, bring on the bulls, just stop going sideways!


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to meanVelocity for this post:
 
  #138 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received

For every single parabolic top in the markets, there is generally 3-5 rounded tops or more.

In modern markets on the major indices... It's more like ten rounded tops for every parabolic top on the daily charts.

People just are not going into full out manias like they use to! Investor psychology has changed. These markets are more central banker sentiment micromanaged than natural. I think that is the best explanation for the strange lack of parabolic rallies.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to meanVelocity for this post:
 
  #139 (permalink)
3rd times a charm!
San Francisco CA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: CQG
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Zxeses's Avatar
 
Posts: 139 since Jun 2014
Thanks: 90 given, 171 received


meanVelocity View Post
For every single parabolic top in the markets, there is generally 3-5 rounded tops or more.

In modern markets on the major indices... It's more like ten rounded tops for every parabolic top on the daily charts.

People just are not going into full out manias like they use to! Investor psychology has changed. These markets are more central banker sentiment micromanaged than natural. I think that is the best explanation for the strange lack of parabolic rallies.

Oh my, I think you just called this generation of traders a bunch of cowards :-)

/poke

Reply With Quote
 
  #140 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Portland, OR
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: SierraChart
Favorite Futures: ES, SPY
 
Posts: 201 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 2 given, 62 received


It's more like... We have less stupid retail speculators in the market, and more cautious professionals.

"A market is the composite psychology of all of itís participants."

If you want to see a market with parabolic movement, go check out Bitcoin charts.


That is a market where high stakes speculators were at play in recent years.



Zxeses View Post
Oh my, I think you just called this generation of traders a bunch of cowards :-)

/poke


Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > meanVelocity's Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Alternative Views on Traditional Tools w/Rhonda Jones

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

Al Brooks: TBA

Elite only

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Oct 19

RandBots: TBA

Oct 24
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Marking apost in a thread as "answer to this thread" DionysusToast Off-Topic 2 January 21st, 2014 06:41 PM
A p/l thread. Cloudy Traders Hideout 1 February 19th, 2012 01:25 AM
FF allows the THREAD STARTER to ignore posters so they can NOT post in their thread. TheRumpledOne Off-Topic 2 September 19th, 2009 12:53 AM
Welcome Back Thread ! max-td Traders Hideout 0 June 17th, 2009 01:22 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:31 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-09-20 in 0.16 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.80.77.124