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meanVelocity's Thread

  #121 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
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This is the crazy thing about markets... Things may not always be as they appear. A trade setup may fail just because some idiot is on tilt somewhere at some trading firm pushing down or holding up the entire US market because he thinks he can attract people into the move.

Been quite a few incidents of rogue traders in history... It's not uncommon.

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  #122 (permalink)
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You know... If we get a twelve point range on the S&P this week... That... Is going to be hilarious!

Still a chance to break the downside range on the S&P into later today. I wouldn't put money on it though...

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  #123 (permalink)
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Wow... Should have just slept in today too.

Time to review some numbers... Trend rate is running a point per half session. High estimate based upon longer term trend rate is two points per half session. Current support price levels could get locked out within five days, but I expect a volatility increase next week.

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As for the Nasdaq 100 in the bigger picture... Short term mean is gaining at 76 points per month. Realistically were actually only doing 65 points per month, and this is just a short term momentum surge. Seeing 4400 a couple months off isn't unrealistic.

This move is so high velocity it's unlikely to last more than a couple more months. If it was slower it could last longer.

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  #124 (permalink)
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When I say "locked out", what I mean is... A short done at Mean could be completely locked out four days + off. Eg, probability of price returning to these levels five days off could go under 1%/session.

Eventually this entire move will have to be retraced back down to around 2,000... But that is not that likely until like Jan/Feb.

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  #125 (permalink)
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Have a good thanksgiving all! I am out...

I'm bearish for December first and second... Looking for a drop to support around there before we can push up again.

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  #126 (permalink)
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Mean return to 2k probability targets January/Feb. The only question is solving the timing...

Probability of return to six month mean has been stable at 1/3rd chance. With Mean rising at twenty points per month that gives us the 2k or slightly higher area a couple months off.

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  #127 (permalink)
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I just realized... The only thing keeping this market up right now is the Nasdaq. Normally both the S&P and DOW would easily break down to test near term support in this type of situation, however...

Positive sentiment rolling higher in the Nasdaq is keeping the rest of the market afloat. You could argue that if the demand wasn't racing toward the Nasdaq, it would be headed more toward the S&P and DOW keeping them stronger, but that may not be true.

The same behavior happened at the end of the .com bubble. Tech racing higher while the other indices just chopped around.

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  #128 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
I just realized... The only thing keeping this market up right now is the Nasdaq. Normally both the S&P and DOW would easily break down to test near term support in this type of situation, however...

Positive sentiment rolling higher in the Nasdaq is keeping the rest of the market afloat. You could argue that if the demand wasn't racing toward the Nasdaq, it would be headed more toward the S&P and DOW keeping them stronger, but that may not be true.

The same behavior happened at the end of the .com bubble. Tech racing higher while the other indices just chopped around.

This just reminded me of an older article about the Nasdaq index:

Equal-Weight Technology ETF | ETF Trends

This was the most important point in the above article (to me)


Quoting 
For instance, the Nasdaq-100 PowerShares QQQ (NasdaqGM: QQQ) has added 1% over the past three months, whereas the First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund (NasdaqGM: QQEW) gained 7.7%. [Equal-Weighted Nasdaq ETF Dodges Apple Sell-Off]

Funny how much things turn around, now AAPL is up as opposed to down in the article, and the reverse of January is also true: The Nas is unequally affected (positively, this time) and as @meanVelocity puts it "Positive sentiment rolling higher in the Nasdaq is keeping the rest of the market afloat."

Its time for the Nas bubble to break, but how long until the majority realizes that the Nas index is a farce?


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  #129 (permalink)
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In order for me to become bearish the Nasdaq 100... One of these two scenarios must happen.

1. It must fully lose momentum and start to chop sideways... Would be a six to nine month process at minimum.

2. It must explode upward through 4500 toward 5000 into the start of next year with sentiment going into full mania.



Zxeses View Post
This just reminded me of an older article about the Nasdaq index:

Funny how much things turn around, now AAPL is up as opposed to down in the article, and the reverse of January is also true: The Nas is unequally affected (positively, this time) and as @meanVelocity puts it "Positive sentiment rolling higher in the Nasdaq is keeping the rest of the market afloat."

Its time for the Nas bubble to break, but how long until the majority realizes that the Nas index is a farce?



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  #130 (permalink)
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First, lets review the .com mania... In this current scenario, I would go bearish with a mere 1999 style upside blast off.

However, a year 2000 style upside detonation would make me more bearish and declare the bull market over. We only have about two more months for this to happen. The clock is ticking.

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Here is our current levels... We could head into mania in a couple months. We shall see!

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