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meanVelocity's Thread
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meanVelocity's Thread

  #101 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
As we open into next week... The market will have free reign in the area of about 2045 to 2070 on the cash. In that inverse elasticity zone the market can move around freely Monday. To burst outside it, the market needs a emotional catalyst. Eg, news...

Not getting too much of a drop from the 2070 area so far... Hum... Time for bear hibernation until new highs again? LoL...

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  #102 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
Actually... I do not use Fib's. I just use retracement quarters and halves. The numbers match pretty close though.

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I do not believe many big traders use fibs anymore. I think they are just thinking about a rally moving half as high as the last, a quarter higher, double... Etc...

meanVelocity, do you mean half as high as the last sell off? Your 1/4 extension seems to be off the last sell off, no off the last rally... Or am I missing something?

thanks.

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  #103 (permalink)
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Anna K View Post
meanVelocity, do you mean half as high as the last sell off? Your 1/4 extension seems to be off the last sell off, no off the last rally... Or am I missing something?

thanks.

I use retracements. They are more consistent than projections. Go draw them like this on the S&P chart for a while and see for yourself.

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  #104 (permalink)
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And, here is how you draw them for when the market breaks it's prior swing low, correction...

Even if the market doesn't match the levels exactly, it gives you a good idea of the target area after a break of a prior low or high.

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I don't like projections much, even though the levels provide good support and resistance as quite a few people use them... They don't have the consistent reliability of retracement levels.

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  #105 (permalink)
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meanVelocity View Post
It's hard to attract many buyers or sellers to knock the market out of whack and far away from fundamentals without a news catalyst.

Now, let me share my weekly market chart...

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This market is was absurdly overstretched today... These kind of events are rare. Very very low probability of the market holding onto these kind of price levels for any amount of time.

The psychological anchoring effect as described in behavioral finance is critical to understand here. People perceive these prices as extremely high and won't be comfortable with them until they see how the market behaves during the consolidation/retrace.

It takes time for people to grow comfortable with higher price levels. I am still not completely convinced this market will hold up until around Jan/Feb until I see how it behaves when momentum is fully lost over the next couple weeks.

that was certainly NOT a ninja chart,

what software and indicators were those?, very good analysis on a weekly "at a glance" chart

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  #106 (permalink)
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kronie View Post
that was certainly NOT a ninja chart,

what software and indicators were those?, very good analysis on a weekly "at a glance" chart

Yea... I can't stand black/blue background trading software with crappy squiggly lines. I need to be able to take in the situation in a single glance.

All indicators except the pivots are mine. All custom. Software platform is Sierra.


Last edited by meanVelocity; November 25th, 2014 at 01:31 PM.
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  #107 (permalink)
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Good GDP data this morning. Market pulled back because it's just too overstretched at those prices. Trend rate is only about +1.5. With a 14.3 point range that means... 1.5 x 14.3 = 21.45 / 5 = 4.29 points per day rise in resistance levels.

Also, 2075 is somewhat of a critical level psychologically.

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  #108 (permalink)
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You know, this is starting to remind me of the rally before the Flash Crash... If this rally doesn't get it's risk defused by a mini-correction, there could be the mother of all buildups in weak hands getting on board this.

Risk isn't too high yet, but if this were to continue straight up into Jan/Feb with no pushes into support levels... It's gonna be very very ugly when this ends.

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  #109 (permalink)
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We held momentum for eight weeks before it was lost and the Flash Crash occurred. It was quite a long buildup of weak hands...

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  #110 (permalink)
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Gap down is likely tomorrow morning. This market is starting to depolarize. Were starting to enter two directional trade.

Probability of above six day mean prices each day still is still holding, however... Probability of below average prices is back. Welcome to late stage rally.

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