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NQ-nalysis
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NQ-nalysis

  #661 (permalink)
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Look like it is having zero effect.

This is the most frustrating market in the NQ I can remember. A complete algo driven mess. This move up from the over night is a complete false break up to try to break the last high. Zero support and no it jumps up like this. Complete WTF moment.

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  #662 (permalink)
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It's starting to look like it will be a blow off top right at the election. This is scorched earth trading. Take it right to the limits then kill it off in a blaze of glory.

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  #663 (permalink)
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Hickock View Post
Look like it is having zero effect.

This is the most frustrating market in the NQ I can remember. A complete algo driven mess. This move up from the over night is a complete false break up to try to break the last high. Zero support and no it jumps up like this. Complete WTF moment.

I'm not familiar with what a false break is but I thought that the ON session respected the support zone from yesterday.

The ~4815 area was strong support after the big bear move down yesterday on DB's news.

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The current move up seems to be a continuation from that.

However I do agree that sometimes I feel as if the NQ is just a shadow of the ES. I expected that certain investors would switch over from ES to NQ if non-NQ industries such as financials and resources were doing bad, but it seems that the NQ just mirrors the movement of the ES when those industries are suffering, even if the top quartile of the NQ is all green (it slowly turns red).

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  #664 (permalink)
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In retrospect, the double bottom did prove to be support and a rejection of the short. But at this point I can't help but feel like the NQ is paper thin and moving on "fake" news and without any real structure. Doesn't mean it can't keep on going into a blow off top.

If you look at the Russell and the ES they are in a completely different pattern compared to the NQ.

False Break ( to me ) taking out a previous high without good ABC movement and support. Your basic short squeeze / false break out.

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  #665 (permalink)
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Hickock View Post
In retrospect, the double bottom did prove to be support and a rejection of the short. But at this point I can't help but feel like the NQ is paper thin and moving on "fake" news and without any real structure. Doesn't mean it can't keep on going into a blow off top.

If you look at the Russell and the ES they are in a completely different pattern compared to the NQ.

False Break ( to me ) taking out a previous high without good ABC movement and support. Your basic short squeeze / false break out.


I'm very new at this but with no hike this month + not much political uncertainty (market is assuming HRC will win in November) + Strong performance from some of the top NQ companies (9/10 are positive this month), shouldn't this 'no news' be = good news in investor's minds?

If you are a Long term investor and you bought post-brexit (1) or after we had that break-down out of a 20+ day balance (2), what would be the reasons to exit the market right now?

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A few things come to mind:
  • US Political uncertainty - looking at the electoral college Clinton has a better path to 270 than Trump, and if anything the Trump downfall after the debate hasn't been good for him (Lack of preparation, lies and excuses, Cuba scandal, and more)
  • EU banking fears - The whole DB thing might've been just panic (or at least it feels like it this second), but with more signs we could see players panicking
  • EU uncertainty - I won't go into detail of this because I don't know enough to discuss
  • 5,000 area - Big question mark around this as I've never experienced hitting a 000 number, but would a number like this make people wonder 'wow we are high, 5x as high as the lowest point of the recession, can we continue going up? We are probably due for a huge correction aren't we?'
  • The impact of an interest rate hike by the fed.

If I was a long-term investor and I got in during either of those entries, I wouldn't see a reason to think the market will break unless something big changes. Unless something major happened soon, why exit before the election? or even before December?

However, I'm pretty new so I'm interested in hearing some other opinions.

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  #666 (permalink)
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Don't get me wrong, I'm currently short on the market thinking wtf how are we still going higher.

On a smaller timeframe discussion. We are currently at weekly highs, we have rallied ~70 points today, above ATR, there has been a lot of volume after the 4870 area, but we are still creeping higher?

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Why!!! lol
Are we honestly going to end this week with a bull trend day starting overnight from a panic support zone?

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  #667 (permalink)
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Anybody want to take a guess on when the NQ will hit 5,000?
Next 2 days? January? First quarter of 2017? 2018 perhaps?

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