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NQ-nalysis
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NQ-nalysis

  #181 (permalink)
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srgtroy View Post
Today's results. Judge for yourself:

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Interesting. A few remarks/questions:

- I do not know what color "Fuchsia" is. Really, I don't know which lines those are....

- At first I thought that the darker lines at each tick were part of the fibs; I see they aren't now, they're just part of the grid, but visually they are still distracting (well, to me, anyway.)

- Substantively, will you be discussing the basis for calculating the fib levels -- I have found there are always many points to use, and fibs have always been difficult for me because of that.

However, judging for myself, it does look pretty good. Thanks, and I would love to see this as a standard, recurring feature here.

Bob.

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  #182 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
However, judging for myself, it does look pretty good. Thanks, and I would love to see this as a standard, recurring feature here.

Bob.

I agree.

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  #183 (permalink)
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Market rolled over today, back down into our channel. The 3970 was hit in the first 5 mins. Big down in Globex and now big down on the day. Looking to see if we will test the bottom of the channel. ADR is 3951, would expect that today.

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We got the ADR low, which is also near the AWR low and we got that at 3950.50 as well.

Globex into tomorrow I am looking for another low in the 3930's.


Last edited by tturner86; October 7th, 2014 at 04:27 PM.
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  #185 (permalink)
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bobwest View Post
Interesting. A few remarks/questions:

- I do not know what color "Fuchsia" is. Really, I don't know which lines those are....

- At first I thought that the darker lines at each tick were part of the fibs; I see they aren't now, they're just part of the grid, but visually they are still distracting (well, to me, anyway.)

- Substantively, will you be discussing the basis for calculating the fib levels -- I have found there are always many points to use, and fibs have always been difficult for me because of that.

However, judging for myself, it does look pretty good. Thanks, and I would love to see this as a standard, recurring feature here.

Bob.

Hi Bob,

Good call on the fuchsia lines. Currently, there are no fuchsia (magenta) lines on the chart, but there may be in the future so I added it to the legend.

Regarding, the darker lines, I think you are right. I will take (most) of them off. Sometimes if a single fib lines up with a key psychological level, that provides extra support, but I think I will minimize their use unless absolutely important. Thanks for the suggestion!

Regarding the calculations themselves, honestly, it has literally taken me years of playing with fibs to figure out my current method of calculations, which is not necessarily how others do it, and it is something I am still improving, so for now, I am going to reserve that part of the "equation". Nevertheless, whether I calculate them or I show someone how I calculate them, the end result will be the same -- the actual levels -- and those I intend to publish here as much as possible AND in advance. I consider the current phase of the fib report to be a "proof of concept" one, which is why using the NDX is great, because it is a pure "lab" sample and not affected in anyway by issues like "contract rollover".

If and when the process is validated and nailed down with the NDX, then hopefully, we can move on to the actual futures levels and to calculating levels for other intstruments, perhaps in a seperate thread, and possibly even the methodology.

That is not to say that these levels can't be used now. Slap them on a 5 min real-time chart of the NDX and they are very effective. There is even a way to use them on non-time based charts (even though NDX data is basically time-based) which I will discuss in the near future.

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Didn't have time to post Tuesday's levels in advance so I won't bother with the results (although they were good). Here are Wednesday's Levels:

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srgtroy View Post
Didn't have time to post Tuesday's levels in advance so I won't bother with the results (although they were good). Here are Wednesday's Levels:

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It would be very interesting to see if you could take one of these levels and do a mark up of your risk defined with targets similar to how Terry did it here


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  #188 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post
It would be very interesting to see if you could take one of these levels and do a mark up of your risk defined with targets similar to how Terry did it here

Excellent suggestion. I was thinking maybe I should add at least a little commentary in terms of how i see this, although I don't want to completely detract from the levels. They are objective whereas commentary would be subjective. Ultimately, price action around the levels simply has to be watched and evaluated. That said, the most important confluence to me right now is 54.69 to 49.76. If price is unable to break that, then I simply target the next confluence above at 78.36-86.04. If price does break below 49.76 I am looking at (at least) 29.16 and possibly the cyan line at 3909.

In terms of risk/reward, I will try and develop a more specific guideline as we watch this develop. For now, I would say that risk is for price to stay within the boundaries of any particular confluence give or take a tick or two, and reward is the distance to the next key level (red/green/cyan/fuchsia) in general and the next confluence in particular.

Maybe I will try to mark up the next chart I post. Thanks for the suggestion and regards to ItchyLarry

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@Itchymoku

Here is an example using today's Levels/PA.
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Fibs are very precise, stops can be tight I think.

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srgtroy View Post
Excellent suggestion. I was thinking maybe I should add at least a little commentary in terms of how i see this, although I don't want to completely detract from the levels. They are objective whereas commentary would be subjective. Ultimately, price action around the levels simply has to be watched and evaluated. That said, the most important confluence to me right now is 54.69 to 49.76. If price is unable to break that, then I simply target the next confluence above at 78.36-86.04. If price does break below 49.76 I am looking at (at least) 29.16 and possibly the cyan line at 3909.

In terms of risk/reward, I will try and develop a more specific guideline as we watch this develop. For now, I would say that risk is for price to stay within the boundaries of any particular confluence give or take a tick or two, and reward is the distance to the next key level (red/green/cyan/fuchsia) in general and the next confluence in particular.

Maybe I will try to mark up the next chart I post. Thanks for the suggestion and regards to ItchyLarry

In this case I think the more commentary the better.

Larry traded for me today. Everyday he's getting better. Eventually I won't even need to get out of bed.

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