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One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction
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One year later into my trading career...........seeking guidance and direction

  #71 (permalink)
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Thxo View Post

Exactly .

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  #72 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post

@budfox posted this a year ago:


This thread is basically a repeat of the previous threads. Until he creates a journal and starts taking people's advice and actually doing some real work on his trading, then I believe the evidence clearly shows he cannot be helped.

Mike

I am sure if any decent person would read my previous threads they would obviously see that this thread is completely different.

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  #73 (permalink)
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Hey Budfrog,

I'd recommend spending some time with TsT. They have a lot of good educators. I've been trading with them for over a year. I've never passed a combine, it's really helped me in my development. They have a great team there. I trade live now with a prop firm. I am succeeding in my career and I have this forum to thank and TsT. Still trying to pass that combine, LoL. If only I could learn to stop out of a losing position.

Alligators and crocodiles are not the same. A lot of people don't know that.
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  #74 (permalink)
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tigertrader View Post

i must confess, i’d rather just guess
than be duped and fooled, by randomness
i rather think twice, than just roll the dice
these random studies, do not drive price

rather think like a fox, not be put in a box
as the markets are, a recursive paradox
if not arc sine laws, then ever-changing-cycles
if you are in denial, it can be almost suicidal

these damning effects, must be circumvented
but not with the invented, nor the misrepresented
not with tools that are myopic, or simply synoptic,
lest the retail hypnotic, not benefit the agnostic

a causal understanding, is certainly demanding
but in-or-out of sample, it sets the best example
there’s so much more, than just trade and win
like adding to profits, when others are cashing in

immune to the tout, trading without any doubt
entering trades, where others are stopped-out
not stepping out-on-the ledge, with an illusory edge
there’s no need to hedge, this is my solemn pledge

-tt

I'm impressed

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  #75 (permalink)
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chuckchucker View Post
Hey Budfrog,

I'd recommend spending some time with TsT. They have a lot of good educators. I've been trading with them for over a year. I've never passed a combine, it's really helped me in my development. They have a great team there. I trade live now with a prop firm. I am succeeding in my career and I have this forum to thank and TsT. Still trying to pass that combine, LoL. If only I could learn to stop out of a losing position.

Hi Chuck,

Thanks for the reply.

Yes I plan on eventually doing a combine, when i have a decent system. I know right now I wouldn't pass it.

WE will talk sometime,

BF.

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  #76 (permalink)
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UPDATE

Just thought I would update everyone on my trading plan for the next 6 months , as I would be interested in your opinion of it.


PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.



PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine



PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


Thanks to those that reply.


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku @tturner86 @tellytub @daytrader4545 @tigertrader @isla @Jaguar52 @kbit @bobwest @Hulk @PandaWarrior








Please note I do not appreciate negative posts on my thread.


Last edited by budfox; October 20th, 2014 at 12:49 AM.
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  #77 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Just thought I would update everyone on my trading plan for the next 6 months , as I would be interested in your opinion of it.


PRIORITY #1

Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

I will only be backtesting on EUR/USD pair (perhaps a few other pairs) > Yes I have officially divorced the ES and for the time being solely focussing on Forex.



PRIORITY #2

Figure out a model that will be successful in using in the TST combine.

Only problem is that I am now focussing on forex, and their combines are all futures. I am wondering how long it will be before they have a forex combine



PRIORITY #3

Continue to learn C# . I have already subscribed to Lynda, learning the basics.
My objective is to become a Ninjascript master
Will allocate 25% of my time towards learning c#

PRIORITY #4

Just to learn overall about Forex, since I am new to it.


so what you guys think?


Thanks to those that reply.


@josh @treydog999 @Itchymoku








Please note I do not appreciate negative posts on my thread.

Idk man seems like a lot of different obstacles. I'm not sure why you want to automate and learn programming to compensate for trading. Wouldn't it be better to learn how to trade first successful? Why are you so interested in the TST combine instead of just starting with maintaining your own account to make your way live first? I'm sorry if I missed your reasoning for all of this but they it just strikes me as peculiar as to why you're avoiding just trading sim.

Like I've told you before, If you don't have an undying passion for programming already you're going to have a hard time sticking through to making a algorithm that works. Many people spend years making a decent algo. Do you really want to go down that path considering you don't know how to program? That's a huge investment. You're better off just going back to college and building a nest. Once you learn how to program from college and have a steady job with it then you have better chances with it.


Last edited by Itchymoku; October 20th, 2014 at 12:49 AM.
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  #78 (permalink)
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Itchymoku View Post
Idk man seems like a lot of different obstacles. I'm not sure why you want to automate and learn programming to compensate for trading. Wouldn't it be better to learn how to trade first successful? Why are you so interested in the TST combine instead of just starting with maintaining your own account to make your way live first? I'm sorry if I missed your reasoning for all of this but they it just strikes me as peculiar as to why you're avoiding just trading sim.

Like I've told you before, If you don't have an undying passion for programming already you're going to have a hard time sticking through to making a algorithm that works. Many people spend years making a decent algo. Do you really want to go down that path considering you don't know how to program? That's a huge investment. You're better off just going back to college and building a nest. Once you learn how to program from college and have a steady job with it then you have better chances with it.

Hi Itchy,

Thanks once again for your input.

I definitely need to clear up my reasoning.

I want to learn programming just so I can backtest more efficiently on NT, as one can not backtest efficiently without some programming knowledge.

I have no desires at the current moment to design an algo lol .

I was already live for year trading the ES.

I am interested in doing a combine since it appears from the numerous posts I've read on this forum, that it is apparently a great learning process (with real trading professionals who can give you useful advice) .

Have a great day mate,


bf.

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  #79 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Continue to manually backtest various models on excel (with at least 100 trades), and 'failing' each model where Drawdown > 70% , until I have a model that has a win ratio of >= 60 % and a DD <70%

Are you talking about a 70% drawdown on total capital? If so, that is MASSIVE and I guarantee you here and now that you will break your rules and change your methods (and generally freak out), way before you reach anywhere close to 70% drawdown when trading live.

It's one thing if you've got several large accounts each running different strategies so that they hedge each other. But as we know from your posts over the last 1.5years, that is not your situation. Since you're looking into forex you may want to incorporate position sizing and money management strategies that force you to trade smaller the more you lose. And if it was me, I wouldn't want to see a drawdown of 40%.

It's one thing looking at backtest results and being happy with a 50% drawdown. It's a complete different story when doing it live and your precious account which you've put all your hopes and dreams in to is now half gone.

Diversification is the only free lunch
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  #80 (permalink)
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budfox View Post
Hi Itchy,

Thanks once again for your input.

I definitely need to clear up my reasoning.

I want to learn programming just so I can backtest more efficiently on NT, as one can not backtest efficiently without some programming knowledge.

I have no desires at the current moment to design an algo lol .

I was already live for year trading the ES.

I am interested in doing a combine since it appears from the numerous posts I've read on this forum, that it is apparently a great learning process (with real trading professionals who can give you useful advice) .

Have a great day mate,


bf.

I appreciate your curiosity and eagerness to learn with your pm's to me, but I think what you need to do is just find a way to get good at testing if things work by trying them out in sim or replay. It may not be as comprehensive but you can get a good idea if things work or don't by just creating a simple table or list of p/l on if the trade worked or didn't with a specific criteria or set of criteria and go through trade by trade before you go crazy with back tests. What worked for these other people might not be best for you.

You're taking everyone's advice wholeheartedly and that'll cause you go in a thousand different directions. Maybe learning to program would help someone back-test more efficiently but you have to wonder if that is entirely what would work best for you. Think about it, if you back test a few different indicators working in unison you're going to be ignoring price action signals. It's going to be very hard to test price action because it's more complicated and discretionary. It's something you'll need to just practice yourself via forward testing.

No set of indicators is going to be the magic ticket either. Do you really need to back test an indicator for years to see if it's useful? If you replay and test it out over a couple weeks and it doesn't work it probably isn't going to work for those previous years. Back testing may give you a better idea if certain indicators work better in different time periods like before all this volatility but is it really going to help with much more?

You need to think for yourself and analyze if something is working or not. I could tell you what works for me but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll work for you susan or bob. I hope you're getting my drift. You seem like you need everything painted out for you because you want to follow the rules but with trading the rules can be very ambiguous and subject to one's own perception.

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