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Identifying Trend DAys (early)
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Identifying Trend DAys (early)

  #21 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Colorado Springs, CO, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: thinkorswim
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As a coach keeps telling me:

The trend will continue until it doesn't.

It's been difficult to get through my thick skull, but I'm learning.

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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
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I look to the daily to see what is going on over the week/month. That gives me an idea if the day has the opportunity to trend. One of the biggest things with a trend is to figure it out quickly and enter as soon as possible. If you can't, wait for a pullback and the next entry signal and take the trade. If you are correct then price should not come back against you. If it does then you are most likely wrong about the trend (i.e. leg in a trading range).

I think if you understand how the market moves through cycles then the context of what the market has done will give you your answer. (Did not help me today as I kept fighting the trend in the NQ). I find trend days can be harder to trade then a range. The reason why is it just seems to keep going and unless your grab your pair and go it will keep on leaving you behind.

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  #23 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Brett Steenbarger


@budfox

Just what you ordered from the good doctor:
TraderFeed: Four Keys to an Upside Trend Day

Rejoice in the Thunderstorms of Life . . .
Knowing it's not about Clouds or Wind. . .
But Learning to Dance in the Rain ! ! !
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  #24 (permalink)
TikiTimTampa
Bradenton,FL,usa
 
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Persistent trend days


budfox View Post
Hi there,

So my trading plan exclusively focuses on trading trend days (not just bc today was trend day), and I have extensively scoured google looking for information on what is reliable indicators for a trend day. I have read virtually every article on identifying trend days (Corey Rosenbloom has some great articles, wish Mike would do a webinar with him), usually occurs when there is a gap (and it holds), and news doesn't make expectations, $Tick usually goes to -1000 (I think).

I am interested in trading trend days from just after the opening range, to near the close, but since the primary risk is in a major reversal, price ripping above the EMA's (and getting stopped out for a large amount). My current objective is to simply trade the parabolic ones, not the rotational ones.

Issues I'd like to address are 1) who on this board are the "experts" on trading trend days 3) What is a good system to trade trend days (ACD?) 2) What are the reliable ways to identify them (relatively early on).

Also if you could share your experiences if you had attempted to trade trend days.

I would like to have the opinions of the Big Mike Forum greats such as @tigertrader , @Fat Tails , @mfbreakout


I am very determined to be successful at trading trend days (and I will, maybe not tommorrow, or the next day.........).

Thank You.

May i recommend a book , called Pivots Patterns
and Intraday Swing trades By William Scheier - it covers persistent trend days extensively -

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  #25 (permalink)
Elite Member
London + UK
 
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budfox View Post
Hi there,

So my trading plan exclusively focuses on trading trend days (not just bc today was trend day), and I have extensively scoured google looking for information on what is reliable indicators for a trend day. I have read virtually every article on identifying trend days (Corey Rosenbloom has some great articles, wish Mike would do a webinar with him), usually occurs when there is a gap (and it holds), and news doesn't make expectations, $Tick usually goes to -1000 (I think).

I am interested in trading trend days from just after the opening range, to near the close, but since the primary risk is in a major reversal, price ripping above the EMA's (and getting stopped out for a large amount). My current objective is to simply trade the parabolic ones, not the rotational ones.

Issues I'd like to address are 1) who on this board are the "experts" on trading trend days 3) What is a good system to trade trend days (ACD?) 2) What are the reliable ways to identify them (relatively early on).

Also if you could share your experiences if you had attempted to trade trend days.

I would like to have the opinions of the Big Mike Forum greats such as @tigertrader , @Fat Tails , @mfbreakout


I am very determined to be successful at trading trend days (and I will, maybe not tommorrow, or the next day.........).

Thank You.

Look for big volumes from larger market participants coming to the table this is usually at strategic times and price levels. Icebergs and large orders can be a precursor to a trend move. Note: It can be but isn't always, as with anything in this business there's no foolproof method in my view.

Thanks,

Sands

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  #26 (permalink)
Trading for Profit
Birmingham UK
 
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Market can change from a chop day to a uptrend day, to a downtrend day and back to a chop day and repeat if required.

What you need is a method ( simple 1 ) that says market is in a a) trend or b) range, then you play A or B until it changes it's mind, which is frequent, that is all you can do.

Obviously when it changes you have to most likely take the loss, switch modes and hope you make enough before it changes again, over all, not always.


Forex and Index's are too changeable to news for longer term holding in my book, well if you have a wage in wind from a modest account.

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  #27 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Los Angeles, CA
 
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Big Mike View Post
Multiple webinars with Corey are already in the webinars section. You should search.

Mike

LOL!

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  #28 (permalink)
Elite Member
Budapest/Hungary
 
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trend trading

Hey there Budfox!
I agree with some of the earlier posts. Stressing that whatever system you find (or may I suggest a hybrid,) TEST TEST TEST in sim. Once your trades reach the 65-80 percent winners on average a month, and you are CONFIDENT, then start trading live. Its a pain, I know, but will save you from possible great financial pain, and keep you from fretting when you do take losing trades. Because lets face it, you will take losing trades. All traders do. No trading system 100 percent successful. Thats just the down to earth reality of trading.

As for trend trades specifically, they can be tough. Ever since the HFTS were introduced in 2000, it threw the individual traders a huge curve ball. They are specifically used by the big boys to take our money.
I trade trend trades, but use a hybrid of 4 systems to do so. That being said, trend trades only make up of about 30 percent of my trades, because they have to be darn good. The rest of my trades pullbacks and reversals. Those trades just fit my personality better.

I wish you great success!

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  #29 (permalink)
Elite Member
Pretoria, South Africa
 
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Bid / Ask Volume

Sierra Chart has a Bid / Ask Difference study. I slap a 2 and 3 SD band on that and when the bid or ask penetrate these levels we might have OTF participants. If this happens at key levels and higher time frames confirm these levels are important, you could be in for a trend day. Takes discipline though to stay out of the market.

I see you say you work from a basic platform. I hope that has changed. Sierra gives you the best value for money. Extremely professional and flexible - and no, I am not affiliated. Just a very happy customer


Last edited by jproux; January 25th, 2018 at 04:27 AM. Reason: better explanation
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  #30 (permalink)
Elite Member
NYC, NY
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Qtrader
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Can u please post a chart with an example


Starting to looking at Bid/Ask Volume ratio - this one in Sierra has a 14 length on the EMA.. so wondering what the best use is (this seems than the Bid/Ask bars)

Would really appreciate if you could provide an example. i mainly use Cum Delta.. but combine this and looks good - thanks

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