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ES multiday CIT estimation
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ES multiday CIT estimation

  #31 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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My l/t rules are simple, only if the fib supports in the current direction are busted/lost do I look for setups the other way. Out of targets is a clue as well, but only a clue.

E.g. current daily trend still up unless extension support at 40-50 gone, weekly up unless extension support at 1720-30 gone, will look to see if short pullbacks are holding well in the case that they do go.


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And of course many times trends are repeatedly busted both ways before a new one gets properly established. Ok, eggs, grandma, suck, I know - but imho this is the main reason why most folks can't see fibs working for themselves.

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  #32 (permalink)
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I noticed the previous rise counted 15 TD and this one has been 15 TD as well.

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  #33 (permalink)
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@ratfink

i wonder what your fibs would look like on a 240 min chart.
Where would they be busted?

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  #34 (permalink)
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a comparative look at the hourly for last rise and this one

Two charts the previous rise and the current.


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  #35 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
@ratfink

i wonder what your fibs would look like on a 240 min chart.
Where would they be busted?

That was an interesting exercise, thank you.


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Shows up that the 1732 extension traded fine, so it is available as support now around 1735. But, from the internal sequence an extension has blown out and now failed higher up leaving a potential short in play as shown.

Interestingly bulls appear to be trying to use previous highs and a messy next measured move as support, suggests they also think the previous wave is over and are trying to start a new one, can never be sure of the EW/whatever level, that's the art part. More often when extensions fail we need to look for a full hwb retrace, but of which legs(s)? Would be 1708ish if it's this whole one from 9 Oct.

For now if the short hits 47s then we have to think a medium term trend turn may well be in place, but the evidence remains cloudy, especially with bullish start of month days more usual. We wait with baited breath.

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Last edited by ratfink; November 1st, 2013 at 06:22 AM.
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  #36 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
Shows up that the 1732 extension traded fine, so it is available as support now around 1735. But, from the internal sequence an extension has blown out and now failed higher up leaving a potential short in play as shown.

...

1. not clear on the as "shown bit". Could you help clarify with numbers?
(I circled my guess of what you might have meant??)

2. We've had 1747 low today. How does that play into your chart?

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  #37 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
1. not clear on the as "shown bit". Could you help clarify with numbers?
(I circled my guess of what you might have meant??)

2. We've had 1747 low today. How does that play into your chart?

I was looking for 1732 a few days back off 15+30 min sequences when I didn't think it had been used, in fact I should have said 1734.50 in this sequence on the 23rd, my mistake. I've left on this next chart the extension that traded 34s, and greyed out the one that blew out and let the shorts in. It's also showing the full long hwb which would be the sort of distance to expect if we are in a normal pattern.

(That support from prior highs and a messy measured move was indeed suspicious, I should have left it off the map to avoid confusion, that was just me looking at a 240 for the first time. Usually when extensions blow out that's it for a while, but life's never that clear cut.)

Yes, the first short measured move has completed, next setup now at 55.50, target 42ish so bears don't want it above 57.50 this early, but of course it can squeeze if it wants to or just drop straight through targets, or just pull up to the full short hwb instead, for now it's behaving.


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Trouble is, on the daily the bears haven't yet broken any extension support so it could just be pulling back onto that, or the lower weekly support, rather than going the whole hog, we never know - of course. Hitting the 42s will certainly kill the daily support and suggest a test of the lower weekly around 20-30 as a minimum.


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Have a good fib-free weekend.

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  #38 (permalink)
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ratfink View Post
It's also showing the full long hwb which would be the sort of distance to expect if we are in a normal pattern.

Excuse my dumb question but what is "hwb"?

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  #39 (permalink)
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last rise and this latest rise

Here's something I noticed
The latest rise failed the 150% and how 125% is of interest now.

(Note looking for a break of course means possible break.. but if we don't make decisions in face of uncertainty where are we??)

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  #40 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
Excuse my dumb question but what is "hwb"?

Half way back. No such thing as a dumb question, otherwise I've had millions.

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