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ES multiday CIT estimation
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ES multiday CIT estimation

  #21 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post


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At what point would you consider the trend has changed to down?
Thanks

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  #22 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
At what point would you consider the trend has changed to down?
Thanks

Given the chart i posted, when i'll see more wide range bar followed by pullback at the breakout point in the other direction. Presently, i consider the trend is up.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Yes up but the thread is about the conditions for a change in trend.



trendisyourfriend View Post
Given the chart i posted, when i'll see more wide range bar followed by pullback at the breakout point in the other direction. Presently, i consider the trend is up.

Yes I understand you consider the trend is up.
So do I and everyone else.

The price rose from 1640 to 1754.5 (22 Oct) in 9 trading days.
That is 114.5 in 9 days!!
12.27 points a day!!

The thread is about change in trend.

I asked you to what price level the ES must fall for a change in trend in your opinion.
Your replies only seem to trying to argue the trend is up until it isn't.
That is only stating the obvious.

Please clearly state what you look for to determine a CIT so we can follow your advise and see how it turns out.
- What price must it fall to??

{I specified the conditions I saw for early warning of a CIT and they are not met.
Perhaps you only looked at the price channel post, instead of reading the whole thread? }

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  #24 (permalink)
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tihfa View Post
aquarian,

i've gone through your hand-noted chart and other charts and I get the basic idea.

if you dont mind sharing: since you are day trading what is your hold period roughly in comparison to your typical multiday trend timeframe...are you trying to capture x number of bars of bar interval chosen to define the trend or chunk of particular 'channel' bounding trend move (perhaps trying to capture the trend move itself) or you trade further zoomed in such that you are capturing part of the swing move within 'trend channel' in direction of of trend channel (i.e. pullback within channel to the channel top or congestion/consolidation breakout in direction of channel)?

questions above are concepts i am exploring as part of my intended strategies...perhaps i am trying to validate my concepts through others...

btw what did you mean by "at 2 by 1 speed" price ramp through Oct 18?

thanks,
tihfa

Hi Tihfa,

Thanks for your questions - which are excellent.

The first part is about how I am day-trading which I would be happy to reply to.

However,
"questions above are concepts i am exploring as part of my intended strategies...perhaps i am trying to validate my concepts through others..."
is a fair a valid idea and I think you could get more extensive input from many people by starting a thread on it. (I'll Pm you.)

The second part about speed lines is easier to answer. - next post//

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  #25 (permalink)
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Speed lines and their part in identifying CIT

Gann wrote for two classes of traders - the average and the more esoteric.
So his books are for the average trader.

He strongly encouraged protecting one's capital, staying with a clear trend, staying out of dead sideways or choppy markets and exiting a trade if you weren't clear.

He recommended a conservative approach to trading.

Speed lines are a tool Gann created to help the average investor assess the strength of a trend.

{I put the price change as the numerator and the time change as the denominator. NT Gann fan lines label them the other way round. So I call a rise of 2 points per bar as 2 x 1 line and 1 point per bar 1 x 1 and 0.5 pts per bar as 1 x 2 line}

As an example if a stock rose $1 per week on a weekly chart that might be a 1x1 trend change.
If a stock rose $2 per week on a weekly chart that would be a 2x1 trend change and a stronger trend than 1x1, ie it is a steeper rise.

The slope of the speed line is the average rate of ascent from the low to the high.
So on the daily chart the price rose from 1624.75 low on 28 Aug 13 to a peak of 1723.75 on 19 Sept 2013.
this is 15 (trading days) TD and 22 CD (calendar days). Using 15 we have a slope of 98.5/15= 46/7 (or +7 and 4/7) ratio, speed.

From that peak 1723.75 to the low 1640 was a fall of 83.25 pts in 14 TD or 83.25/14= -6x1 speed.

---------

Please understand that Gann was not a fan of the stock indices and he applied his mathematical formulae (of which there are many) to single things, a stock, wheat, corn etc. The S&P is a mongrel - a mixed breed who changes its mix daily (via price weighting) and each 6 months via additions and deletions to the index.

But I trade the manipulated mongrel the ES - so any tools which work (or might prove useful) I use.
------------

Now the advantages of speed lines are not clearly understood by most people, I believe.

When price has formed a low and starts to rise, then pulls back and starts to rise again (ie you have a higher low and higher high is the first chance to draw your uptrend line)

Example of simplified and actual example:

However, with a speed line you can draw it as soon as you have a low - so Wednesday 9 oct.
Example of 240 chart with speed lines showing data until Thursday 10 Oct:


So what speed to use?
Well if you know that (and went its done ) you are a star - a rich, rich star!

This is why you need to record what happened in the past and identify the conditions and look for a repeat of conditions. On the daily chart I only have the rise of 46/7 so approximately +7 x 1 and on the 240 min chart the same rise a 1 x 1. The current rise (from 9 Oct is far faster) but from the 240 min you can see the 2 x 1 fitting the rise quite well.

{this is the magic of Gann that I love!

So we can see it rising about twice as fast as the last rise -- 2 X 1 on 240 min.

So how do we use this?
Well we don't don't the actual speed until after the fact, but what we can see is the price acceleration slowing in the last few days.

---------
Gann has clear -but multiple rules - on determining a 'definite change in trend according to all the rules' but I need to re-read so if their is a lurking Gann fan, who really has studied his writings, please chime in.
------------

charts might have to come tomorrow - computer prbs...

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Last edited by aquarian1; October 26th, 2013 at 12:27 AM.
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  #26 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
...The thread is about change in trend.

I asked you to what price level the ES must fall for a change in trend in your opinion.
Your replies only seem to trying to argue the trend is up until it isn't.
That is only stating the obvious.

Please clearly state what you look for to determine a CIT so we can follow your advise and see how it turns out.
- What price must it fall to??

Prices do not move from bearish to bullish phases in a direct course. There are a couple of phases between both of these extremes. Here is a diagram of the typical phases you can expect to see:

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A very basic way to identify these phases is to draw a couple of moving averages on your chart. The most famous EMA's are the 50, 100 and 200 EMA. I prefer to look at the 200 EMA only. I would usually draw a modified Fibonacci scale from the last pivot high down to the 200 EMA in an uptrend and consider the area below the 50% as a warning phase where distribution can take place and vice versa in the case of a downtrend. When the 200 EMA is broken i consider we are entering into a bearish phase. This simple model works well and is fairly easy to understand.

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  #27 (permalink)
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The thread is about CIT in multiday tread. I have posted examples of the length of trend and specified them.
These have been 16TD, 15 TD, 14 TD.

You do not seem to have read the thread.
This not a thread about changes each few months or perhaps even years - implied by your 200d MA.
Your generic goes through phases chart is not applicable to this thread - and is not correct for the the CIT I have highlighted

See the recent spin on a dime changes that we have outlined and I have shown in the daily hand chart and the 240 min chart.

I feel your posts with unannotated charts and charts of phases would be better in major turn thread.

Indeed the vagueness of your replies and postings seem only to be for non-applicable arguments and are counter to a productive and useful application for ES traders.

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  #28 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
This thread is to help us keep on the correct side of multiday trends in the ES and to switch direction as soon as it is clear the trend has changed.

Everyone is welcome to post here.



Please select posts to improve the energy of the thread by contributing ideas and questions that are on topic.
Try to contribute useful clear ideas that will help us as traders determine the change in multi-day trend for the ES. To be clear with the 7 to 28 TD timeframe. Longer term trend changes and general philosophy posts might be better in another threads. Thank-you.

Let us work together to improve our trading in clear specific ways that we can all use in a practical way.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; October 27th, 2013 at 04:04 AM.
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  #29 (permalink)
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well I was going to try to add the charts to post of Gann speed lines - but my heart is not in it anymore.

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  #30 (permalink)
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8:42 PM 10/31/2013

According to the rules I set up in the previous posts, we had the CIT on Wednesday.
I had been watching it form, narrow range days, small upward progress, etc.
It was like it was waiting for the right time - as of course it was (As Gann says time is the most important).

We had the confirmation this morning Thursday (see attached chart). Waiting for this of course one missed the FOMC Wednesday - 18.75 (HOD to LOD). However, with all the manipulation and the absurdly ridiculous debt ceiling ramp that proceeded this peak , it is perhaps better to wait.

Today, Thursday, was +13.25 LOD to HOD -so counter-trend, and a red day (LH and LL).

The last peak was Thursday the 19th Sept (green on the hand chart, i.e. HH an HL) -but as with this one you could say Wednesday the 18th was the peak. So real peaks Wednesday and Wednesday.


Wed 18th Sept was an absurd +30pt ramp 1693.25 11:21 to 1723.25 @14:00 (I think that was Bennie retirement party and will she/he or won't she/he? mass media garbage -
and the winner is ...
"Yellen!!" She will!!!Oh we are all so thrilled!!! (cue confetti falling from the ceiling and party ballons and streamers} She will continue with billion dollar bank bailouts - $80 billion/mo- ah excuse me should have said QE...why would the Fed the banking cartel association bailout its banksters members Citi/Morgan,etc with taxpayer money- what possible reason??

Thurs 19th 1723.75 @8:34 and falling to 1713.25, so -10.50 (So Thurs 19th Sept only 0.5 higher than Wed and its move was down.)

So here's the interesting part:
Wed 18th Sept was on outside day (orange on my hand chart) that is HH and LL.
Wed, 30 Oct, yesterday, was also orange. It put in the high before opening at 1773.25 at 4:50am, RTH high 1770.50 @8:32 and low 1751.75 at 13:28, ie -18.75 (HOD to LOD)

This drop of -18.75 is very similar to Friday 20 Sept a drop of -18.

(So I'll be working on matching up the last fall to this fall and seeing how I can apply it usefully to my daytrading.)

This thread is about multi-day CIT so it would be nice to have two or three other specific set of rules from other people that we can test together on a go forward basis and see how they fare. That is if you have a specific set of rules for determining the change and would care to share them then we can see how they work.

Perhaps a combination of ideas from several people will generate something new and robust.


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== to be clear this is not a call for... "I think it is .. up/down" opinion poll - a set of tradeable rules.

Keep your mind in the future, in the now.

Last edited by aquarian1; November 1st, 2013 at 05:44 AM.
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