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ES multiday CIT estimation
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ES multiday CIT estimation

  #11 (permalink)
The fun is in the numbers
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finding the CIT 3day line - Gann

on the hand chart I have drawn a 3day line.

On the way down it is the highest high or the last 3 days
and
on the way up the lowest low of the last 3 days.

This line is from Gann readings - but I think I need to re-read the pages - so my apologies to the late great if I've mucked it up. (He also has other rules 7 day and exhaustion bar {he didn't call it that} so some weekend homework required on my part.

To those who study Gann if you can correct this please do so.

---------

In any case on the last down move the 3d downtrend line was cut by the green bar of Thursday 10 Oct where you would go long. This is the day following Wed 9 Oct low.

When today is done 3day uptrendline will be the lower of Friday18 Oct 1730.75 or today.
That is cutting it indicates downtrend.
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  #12 (permalink)
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No rollover today

Wednesday

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  #13 (permalink)
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a different view


wednesday

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  #14 (permalink)
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bluecrow View Post
Hi Aquarian,

Thanks for starting the thread. Do you think you could expand a little on your "day cycle"and the indicators you mentioned. What tools are you using to keep you on the correct side of the trend, and to determine when the top or bottom is in?

Thanks so much!
Joe

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Hi Joe,

I posted the cycle (days from turns).
So 120 would be a key day as you know (re Gann) to watch for a change. (119.92)
We also have approx 30 days from last peak. (30.75) another important day

The cross of 2 x 1 and 1 x 2 implies a balanced ratio.

ihih

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  #15 (permalink)
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Hi Joe,

I took out video reply - too much background noise.

indicators:
purple SMA24 must peak
blue SMA35 must have a price bar below it.
Gann offset must be broken with a price downturn - not sideways price
(I have slid it to the right for the last two days as the price moved sideways.)

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Evening only session perspective

Here is a look at the evening only

looking for close of the day below 1733.25
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  #17 (permalink)
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Price channel for ES

at the top an returning in
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  #18 (permalink)
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interesting Gann speed line cross on 240min ES

interesting Gann speed line cross on 240min ES
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  #19 (permalink)
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aquarian1 View Post
Please note edit to table.

Though I have entered low 24 June that was before I started my hand chart on 5 Aug, and if done by hand perhaps some more up and downs.

I think behind your question of where I see the High and Lows is the question of trading time frame.

Let me say that I started this thread through annoyance with myself on not keeping my intraday hand chart up-to-date and therefore not recognizing the multiday trand change on Wed 9 Oct - which was so obvious on the weekend when I caught up with my work and completed it.

I trade intraday - that is day trade. During some periods the multiday trend is not so important - but in this last uber-ridiculous debt ceiling ramp til Friday 18 Oct, at 2 by 1 speed, trading the short side is plain stupid.

We had gap up on Thursday and green bars everyday.
(green on my daily hand chart posted above is higher high and higher low than yesterday.)


aquarian,

i've gone through your hand-noted chart and other charts and I get the basic idea.

if you dont mind sharing: since you are day trading what is your hold period roughly in comparison to your typical multiday trend timeframe...are you trying to capture x number of bars of bar interval chosen to define the trend or chunk of particular 'channel' bounding trend move (perhaps trying to capture the trend move itself) or you trade further zoomed in such that you are capturing part of the swing move within 'trend channel' in direction of of trend channel (i.e. pullback within channel to the channel top or congestion/consolidation breakout in direction of channel)?

questions above are concepts i am exploring as part of my intended strategies...perhaps i am trying to validate my concepts through others...

btw what did you mean by "at 2 by 1 speed" price ramp through Oct 18?

thanks,
tihfa

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aquarian1 View Post
This thread is to help us keep on the correct side of multiday trends in the ES and to switch direction as soon as it is clear the trend has changed.

Everyone is welcome to post here.



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