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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.
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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.

  #1 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.

Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann

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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
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Sounds kinda apocalyptic . . .

For every seller there is a buyer. And if you are trading oil then you would want to reverse that to being long as any dumb news event from the Middle East an make it jump.

Not a good strategy in my opinion. The introduction to al brooks first book talks about some historic news events. Very interesting.

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  #4 (permalink)
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Further point for tgibbs

Hi Tgibbs,

I so appreciate your comment.

You know who Murphy is: "if it can happen, it will".

In my opinion, we must take into consideration the possible coming
crash of the emini s&p. I say coming, because that happens periodically
and with what the government is doing with our debt is bound to reach
a critical point. I don't want to hope that there will be a buyer
for my long postion in that when thousands of sellers hit the brokers
to get out, the price has to gap to handle the situation.

Very painful for a long position. Shorts would be ok!

Your oil future comment is quite relivant. I would never consider a
future that could gap on the upside and really hurt if I happened to be
short at that time.

I could be wrong, but if one is short, I believe the s&p mini would have
an orderly exit with rising prices. I don't think it would seriously gap up
and jump stop loss orders. Maybe if Gandi returns, there would be a wild
buying binge, but I don't think so. Stock market indices move down much faster
because of fear than up because of greed.

This pumping of the money supply world wide will come to a crashing end
with hyper inflation to deal with. Check out Weiss Research (use google to
get there).

I'll check out Al Brooks, and thanks.


Bill Niemann

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wkniemann View Post
Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann

Lots of folks have gone broke shorting government stupidity....beware....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #6 (permalink)
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wkniemann View Post
I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

So that might be, say, 10 trading days when these apocalyptic things happens? What about the other 99.73% of the days? (assuming 250 market days per year, and the e-Mini S&P was introduced in 1997). And how do you determine these apocalyptic days in advance?

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  #7 (permalink)
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Ya I don't think we can out smart the governments stupidity. My game plan is to trade what works or what I think I can make work. I haven't seen historical data to support an apocalyptic style of crash like you mention and I always go by the saying that history repeats itself and that is what I base my trades on.

Now I will admit there is a lot of pixie dust be snorted in the ES but either way it is cycling like is always has so I'm going to trade it the way it will want to be traded.

What are your intentions? To day trade for a living? For just to invests long term? I guess I see you in conflict as most people are worried about the scenario you describe and therefore day trade but you want to day trade but only short for the long term reason.

Just my thoughts, take them for what they are worth

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An Interesting Idea that is getting a lot of attention.

Best of luck on your uni-directional Trading Journey.

"If we don't loosen up some money, this sucker is going down." -GW Bush, 2008
“Lack of proof that something is true does not prove that it is not true - when you want to believe.” -Humpty Dumpty, 2014
“The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.”
Prof. Albert Bartlett
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wkniemann View Post
Hello BigMike et al,

I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

So, my first inclination is to only go short because if one
is long, and a 911 or Isreal attacks Iran happens, the
longs are really in trouble. Sellers by the thousands try
to get out to protect themselves. Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

Bill Niemann


and while you're at it, why don't you double down after each losing trade, because not unlike the martingale strategy, you would need an infinite amount of capital and time, for your suggested strategy to ever work

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  #10 (permalink)
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wkniemann View Post
Exchanges could even be shut down for days.

Kind of a thread drift a little but have the exchanges ever been shut down for days? Only thing I can think of is for Hurricane Sandy but that something that was known. Here is an article about weather and shutdowns A Timeline of Previous Market Shutdowns - MarketBeat - WSJ

Haven't found much on big news events though.

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