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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.
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Shorting futures is the safest way to trade them intraday.

  #11 (permalink)
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Actually, this strategy (of only trading the ES from the short side intraday) may have some validity, completely removed from the perspective of trading imminent catastrophe.

Specifically, if you sum and compare:

1. The cumulative profit of buying the SPY* on the close of trading and selling at next day's open;
2. The cumulative profit of nuying the SPY at next day's open and selling it at the close.

* I use the SPY as a proxy for the intraday ES since it opens and closes at "normal" trading times.

Depending on your lookback period, you should see the #1 generates much more profit than #2. This doesn't mean that stocks don't go higher in phase 2, but that if you're going to take a short position, it's better to do when the NYSE is open then when it is closed.

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  #12 (permalink)
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furytrader View Post
Actually, this strategy (of only trading the ES from the short side intraday) may have some validity, completely removed from the perspective of trading imminent catastrophe.

Specifically, if you sum and compare:

1. The cumulative profit of buying the SPY* on the close of trading and selling at next day's open;
2. The cumulative profit of nuying the SPY at next day's open and selling it at the close.

* I use the SPY as a proxy for the intraday ES since it opens and closes at "normal" trading times.

Depending on your lookback period, you should see the #1 generates much more profit than #2. This doesn't mean that stocks don't go higher in phase 2, but that if you're going to take a short position, it's better to do when the NYSE is open then when it is closed.


see my post

https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13900-difference-between-night-day.html

nevertheless, the op's premise as originally stated, is inherently ridiculous

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  #13 (permalink)
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tgibbs View Post
Kind of a thread drift a little but have the exchanges ever been shut down for days? Only thing I can think of is for Hurricane Sandy but that something that was known. Here is an article about weather and shutdowns A Timeline of Previous Market Shutdowns - MarketBeat - WSJ

Haven't found much on big news events though.

**********************************************************************
During 911 , the markets were closed for a few days, if I remember, so it can happen..but very rare.

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  #14 (permalink)
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wkniemann View Post
I'm trying to develop a trading philosophy for intraday futures (like the emini S&P). I know how dangerous this can be.

Stop losses are useless. Exchanges could even be shut down for days. Not for me! There are plenty of short opportunities intraday.

What say you?

So you're saying that for intraday trading, a stop loss will be useless? How do you arrive at this (ridiculous) conclusion?

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  #15 (permalink)
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josh View Post
So you're saying that for intraday trading, a stop loss will be useless? How do you arrive at this (ridiculous) conclusion?

I think he / she means if disaster strikes and the market stops trading, then a stop loss would be useless.

if that would happen, of course it depends where your stop is. if not too far away you might get lucky and stopped out before the markets comes to a halt. with a large stop you might not...

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  #16 (permalink)
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  #17 (permalink)
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  #18 (permalink)
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"Safe" and "Futures" in the same sentence brings to mind Carley Garner's webinar on trading futures options .

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  #19 (permalink)
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josh View Post
So you're saying that for intraday trading, a stop loss will be useless? How do you arrive at this (ridiculous) conclusion?

Your stop can be jumped.

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  #20 (permalink)
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grimReaper View Post
Your stop can be jumped.

That doesn't make your stop useless though, typically it turns to market order and fills at a crappy price. What the OP is talking about, or the way I took it, is that whatever you are trading would slide so hard and fast that your stop wouldn't get filled even at a market offer. That's why I say for price to move there has to be buyers and sellers. Bid and ask may spread some and give crappy fills but I'm thinking a 50 tick move would be pretty major and that shouldn't clean out an account. But I have been wrong before

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