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Who Are You Trading Against?
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Who Are You Trading Against?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
SF Bay Area, CA
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: SC
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
Posts: 204 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 136 given, 172 received

Who Are You Trading Against?

One of the ideas that I have been incorporating into my trading over the last year or so is the idea of who I'm trading against. By "who" I'm not referring to a specific entity, but rather which strategies I'm trading against. This is something that I've learned from many years of poker; think less about my hand and more about my opponents hand/actions and what my opponent thinks my hand/actions mean.

The last two days of trading in the ES provide a good example of this. Yesterday if you would have taken a position against those traders who where positioned for a gap close, you won. Both the half-gap close and full gap-close traders lost yesterday. The market did give them an opportunity to get out at B/E or even profit by adding to their underwater positions. But, the real winners were on the side of the gap/half-gap not closing.

So far, today, the half-gappers won, if they were able to weather the initial run up. It remains to be seen at this time if the full-gap close strategy will pay.

There are a ton of strategies to think about on the intraday time frame, the gap close is just one. Some others include pivot strategies, market profile strategies, opening range strategies, previous day high/low breakout/failed breakout strategies, momentum strategies....etc....

I thought I'd post this idea see to what others are doing in this regard and get thoughts about this type of thinking. I posted it in the Index forum because all I trade is the ES. However, feel free to discuss how this idea fits with other markets.

"In order to excel, you must be completely dedicated." -- Willie Mays
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  #2 (permalink)
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  #3 (permalink)
Elite Member
seoul, Korea
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts
Broker/Data: CQG, DTN IQfeed
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treydog999's Avatar
 
Posts: 894 since Jul 2012
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Guys playing basic support and resistance, at pivot highs/lows. These guys are they guys I am trying to exploit with my strategy. I agree with you, think about the mindset of other traders and how you trade in context to them.

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  #4 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Quebec
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
Broker/Data: Stage 5 trading/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: ES, NQ, YM
 
trendisyourfriend's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,690 since Oct 2009
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Since a year ago my main objective is similar to yours to some extent. I felt it was important to integrate and internalize a contrarian perspective. Since then i am looking for setups where i can fade weakness in a context of strength. These setups have in common that they trap a majority of traders in the wrong direction. For example, a failed attempt to reverse a trend is one example. Mostly i got this idea by reading the works of Lance Beggs. Here is one of his examples among many other available on his site:
Session Open Breakout Pullback | Articles-General

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  #5 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Toledo, OH
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, proprietary API for TWS
Favorite Futures: NQ, YM, ES, FOREX
 
Posts: 41 since Nov 2012
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Counter trend is a game only played by really small to really large

Hello,
I thought i would share my two cents. Counter trend, fade, spread arb all mean a similar trading technique. The big boys deploy it for one simple reason, these levels generally provide high liquidity and can be algo traded well. Many retail players gravitate towards it for the wrong reasons, or leave a lot of money on the table doing this. I know there are traders who are mentally drawn to counter trend and trend trading to them is like asking a right hander to pitch using the left hand. In this case, those traders generally find success. Most others would benefit from trading the trend, IMHO.

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  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
SF Bay Area, CA
 
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Posts: 204 since Nov 2010
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I've been putting more thought into this subject and my ideas have evolved toward individuals rather that strategies.

I now realize that I'm trading against professionals with families to provide for and mortgages to pay. There is no way that I can out smart them, but I think I can out maneuver them. Even if I could out smart them I don't have and most likely never will have the capital to implement those ideas.

My outlook on trading is transitioning from being a fun personal challenge to seeing it as a cut-throat business and I like even more.

"In order to excel, you must be completely dedicated." -- Willie Mays
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  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
SF Bay Area, CA
 
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Posts: 204 since Nov 2010
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@Itchymoku who said I feel bad about taking your money or anybodies money? That's the nature of the game.

"In order to excel, you must be completely dedicated." -- Willie Mays
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  #8 (permalink)
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Philadelphia
 
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rickey View Post
@Itchymoku who said I feel bad about taking your money or anybodies money? That's the nature of the game.

Sorry, I wasn't referring to you specifically. I'm just saying In general. I use to think about this stuff a lot and there was a certain level of guilt I experienced which I learned to ignore. I deleted the post because It was off topic. I'm naturally horrible with forums


Last edited by Itchymoku; November 14th, 2012 at 02:40 PM.
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  #9 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Sunnyvale, CA
 
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rickey View Post
I now realize that I'm trading against professionals with families to provide for and mortgages to pay.

Your trading against/with people and firms with inside information, with better and faster access to important news. You're trading against/with people and firms that actually own the commodities for which you trade futures contracts. Your trading quantity is a tiny miniscule in an ocean of much larger interests.

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  #10 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Bangkok
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MultiCharts.NET, S5, Ninj
Broker/Data: AMP, S5, IB
Favorite Futures: ES
 
DionysusToast's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,600 since Nov 2010
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You are mostly trading against yourself in my opinion.

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