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ES Unfair Advantage
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ES Unfair Advantage

  #211 (permalink)
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Fadi View Post
Why? -> emotions
But also because most cannot wait, no patience, also often these same people bet the farm and end up with tons of margin calls that accumulate as they wait for the fall
They will be squeezed out of their positions, only to watch the market fall the next day.

@Fadi
Thanks and yes, you’re absolutely right
I’ll also add lack of good and tested (over and over again) working plan and the discipline to follow it.
If one has a good working plan she or he will not worry about impatience and margin calls as this will be imbedded into a good plan. And discipline I think it says for itself -- don’t think just stick to it

 
  #212 (permalink)
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dario1 View Post
Based on the scheduled news i.e. 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI we should expect a nice counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move just around 10:00am
-- Let see if this will hold water today.


Hm, how about that we had a counter move @10:10 (2pts)
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes

--it’s not what I was hoping for but as I said in post # 174 I'll gladly win 2-3pt a day for the rest of my life…

On the other hand the (3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
played pretty well -- down more than 4pts.


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  #213 (permalink)
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12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move


12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

Ok we're waiting for the
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move

expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


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  #214 (permalink)
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Ok it's about time --better late than never

So after this Post-Lunch Move down we should expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the low of the day (as per (5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move)

 
  #215 (permalink)
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3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move


dario1 View Post

So after this Post-Lunch Move down we should expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move if the market is testing the low of the day (as per (5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move)

So As expected we have a beautiful counter –trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move

Now we'll patiently wait for our 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm

 
  #216 (permalink)
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3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move


dario1 View Post

Now we'll patiently wait for our 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm

as expected the move was down (over 4pts) and ended up bit later at 15:40

 
  #217 (permalink)
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Time vs. Price

Recap -- Monday, September 4, 2012

picture tells a thousand words:

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(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day


(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes


(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm

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  #218 (permalink)
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Dario1, i like your assumptions summary. I pretty much look at it as you do. To this end, i like to use this MTF indicator from Fat Tails clickme it is very useful.

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Dario1, i like your assumptions summary. I pretty much look at it as you do. To this end, i like to use this MTF indicator from Fat Tails clickme it is very useful.

Thank you for reminding me about this one. I remember I was using opening range indicator before ( I've experimented with different hours though) and some how I've faded away from it during my research progress -- may be I should take a second look
thanks
D

 
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dario1 View Post
Thank you for reminding me about this one. I remember I was using opening range indicator before ( I've experimented with different hours though) and some how I've faded away from it during my research progress -- may be I should take a second look
thanks
D

For the ES i use 60 minutes for the initial balance (9:30-10:30am EST). This is a standard and consider range extention has been established when price makes 4 ticks outside of the IB, some people use 3 ticks for range extention.

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