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As per post#168 I would like to find out if the market really moves the way I described in my post #1 where I've stated that certain price moves or swings can happen in respect to the time of the day and I believe there is some kind of correlation between time of the day and the price movement. This is why I've started this thread. Same as other members of your futures.io (formerly BMT) forum to study of materials and sources in order to establish facts and reach new conclusions to make us better traders.
dario
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend
(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day
This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
(3) 10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
As I've posted before I’m recently focusing only on the 5 moves that I’ve described in the post #1.
a) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
b) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
c) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch move
d) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move
e) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
--but the move was so obvious that I had to included it in this analysis.
(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias)
(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend if a counter-trend move occurs before 3:00pm
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day This move is important as a reference to what is going to happen later in a day
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move Expect a counter-trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move in the first 45 to 60 minutes
10:45AM - 11:45AM Delayed Morning Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move
(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move
Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (or upward or downward bias) No move
(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move Expect a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm
(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm, Expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour Move trend
09:00 Final Manufacturing PMI (USD)
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD)
From Bloomberg:
-- European leaders are stepping up shuttle diplomacy this week as they
brace for their central banker’s plan to defend the euro from bond-market
turmoil.
- The yen strengthened against higher- yielding currencies such as the
Australian and New Zealand dollars as signs the global economic
slowdown is deepening boosted demand for safer assets.
- The pound rose toward a three-month high against the dollar after an
industry report showed U.K. manufacturing shrank less than economists
forecast, damping speculation the Bank of England will increase monetary
stimulus.
ok, we all know that ES is about to sink -- not only from the technical point of view but also temporal -- we are entering the fall season and typically September/October wasn't very kind to ES.
Further, the current up trend doesn't really reflect reality of the economy too.
So if this all is true and we all know it -- why at the end 95 % of us will loose money?
--just a thought for today
Why? -> emotions
But also because most cannot wait, no patience, also often these same people bet the farm and end up with tons of margin calls that accumulate as they wait for the fall
They will be squeezed out of their positions, only to watch the market fall the next day.
Successful people will do what unsuccessful people won't or can't do!
Based on the scheduled news i.e. 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI we should expect a nice counter trend move to the NY Opening Hour Move just around 10:00am
-- Let see if this will hold water today.
