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ES Unfair Advantage
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ES Unfair Advantage

  #181 (permalink)
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Time vs. Price Recap -- Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Time vs. Price Recap -- Tuesday, April 24, 2012

(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was down

And then around 10:10AM ES initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- The move was up (9 pts).


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM The Post Lunch Move (– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend or bias of the day)
The move started @ 13:05 and was down more than 3 pts.


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move. The move also started @ 13:56 (3pts)
(-- expect: A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon Move. The move started bit late @ 15:18, was very swift and lasted only 14 minutes (4pts)
(-- expect: A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm)

Attached Thumbnails
ES Unfair Advantage-_1_es-09-12-5-min-28_08_2012.jpg  
 
  #182 (permalink)
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Key news for today

Key news for today

08:30 Prelim GDP (USD)
10:00 Pending Home Sales (USD)
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories (USD)
14:00 Beige Book (USD)


From Bloomberg news:
-- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell in August by the most in 10
months as households grew more pessimistic about their employment
prospects and the economic outlook.
-- Ben S. Bernanke probably won’t provide specific plans for further
monetary action at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual
Jackson Hole symposium this week, according to Pacific Investment
Management Co. Chief Executive Officer Mohamed El-Erian.

 
  #183 (permalink)
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Pivots & range


Pivots & range

Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded

Let see if this will hold water today.

Yesterday's summary:
Open 1408.25
High 1412.00
Low 1403.25
Close 1407.75
Range 8.75

Today's pivots:
R3 1420.75
R2 1416.42
R1 1412.09
PP 1407.67
S1 1403.34
S2 1398.92
S3 1394.59

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  #184 (permalink)
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Pivots & range


dario1 View Post

Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded

Let see if this will hold water today.


Well, it didn’t play out as I tough – All action was between PP and R1 and the range was only 7.75 pts. …but after all tomorrow is another day

 
  #185 (permalink)
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Time vs. Price Recap -- Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was down (over 2pts)


And then around 10:05AM ES has initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- The move was up (3pts)


(3) The Delayed Morning Move has played well (5pts today) @10:35
But as you see from my previous posts I’m recently focusing only on the 5 moves that I’ve described in my post #1:
a) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
b) 10:00AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
c) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-lunch move
d) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move
e) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move


(4) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post Lunch Move
We were expecting a resumption of the NY Opening Hour Move trend (downward bias)
The move was initiated @ 13:26 and failed (undesired move -- less than 1pt)


(5) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move
– expect a resumption of the day’s trend if there was no Post Lunch Move (or undesired move)
The move was initiated @ 13:55 (over 3pts)


Then @ 15:06 ES has initiated its Delayed Afternoon Move (2pts)
(6) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect a counter-trend move of the NY Opening Hour trend.

Attached Thumbnails
ES Unfair Advantage-_1_es-09-12-5-min-29_08_2012.jpg  
 
  #186 (permalink)
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Post 181

I just realized that post 181 has a typo in the heading . it should read Recap for Tuesday August 28 instead of April 24
apology
D

 
  #187 (permalink)
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Pivots & range Aug 30


dario1 View Post
Pivots & range

Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded


Two times the charm?

here the stats:

Yesterday's summary:
Open 1407.25
High 1412.50
Low 1404.75
Close 1407.25
Range 7.75

Today's pivots:
R3 1420.25
R2 1415.92
R1 1411.59
PP 1408.17
S1 1403.84
S2 1400.42
S3 1396.09

 
  #188 (permalink)
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Pivots & range


dario1 View Post

Based on previous observations after a small range day (like yesterday) the pivots in the current day are usually exceeded -- Let see if this will hold water today.


Well, it didn’t play out yesterday; and today is not a perfect day but little progress at least.

The range was wider than the one in the previous day – over 12 pts – we’re moving forward….
the action was between PP and S3

R3 1420.25
R2 1415.92
R1 1411.59
PP 1408.17
S1 1403.84
S2 1400.42
S3 1396.09

 
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Time vs. Price Recap -- Thursday, August 30, 2012

Time vs. Price Recap -- Thursday, August 30, 2012

So today the market opened in a choppy mood and then
(1) around 10:14AM initiated its Morning Move (over 6pts) until 10:55 -- so the overall today’s trend was Down.


(2) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started around13:00
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (downward bias of the day)
--the move was down but not significant so I've considered this as undesired move.


(3) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move --the move started @ 14:10 (2pts)
– expect a resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm,


(4) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move ---the move started a bit early @14:50 (over 3pt)
– the 2:00 pm move will help dictate what may happen
expect a counter-trend move of the day’s trend.

Attached Thumbnails
ES Unfair Advantage-_1_es-09-12-5-min-30_08_2012.jpg  
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  #190 (permalink)
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Key News


Key news for Aug 31,2012

01:00 Housing Starts (JPY)
09:45 Chicago PMI (USD)
09:55 Revised UoM Consumer Senitment (USD)
10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
10:00 Factory Orders (USD)


From Bloomberg :

-- More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment
benefits last week, a sign that progress in the labor market is faltering amid
a slowing economy.

- Consumer confidence in the U.S. held close to a seven-month low last
week as Americans’ view of the buying climate fell to the lowest level of the
year.

- The euro declined for a second day against the dollar after Spain’s Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy said his government would delay deciding whether
to seek a sovereign bailout until the aid conditions are clear.


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