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ES Unfair Advantage
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ES Unfair Advantage

  #161 (permalink)
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We are waiting for the short term timers
so we can expect the roller coaster ride today as market will be convincing all the longs that they are on a wrong side
(zdj0720)

 
  #162 (permalink)
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Key News for today

Key News for today
08:30 Core Durable Goods Orders


base on the pivots we can expect a wider range day than yesterday

R3 1438.00
R2 1425.33
R1 1412.66
PP 1405.33
S1 1392.66
S2 1385.33
S3 1372.66

 
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True or false


True or false

Do you know that Goldman Sachs has Short Term Timers Indicator (probably with a code to recognize your IP address)

 
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ES weekly close @ 1,410.50

ES weekly close @ 1,410.50

Down 5 pts on the week.
This is a first lower weekly close since…

 
  #165 (permalink)
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ES going down

ES going down
We all know that this thing has to go down however the question is when?

When? -- When we're least expecting it -- that for sure.

Remember , we can’t outsmart the Control Boyz!
Even if only because of one reason, we’re playing paper and they have unlimited resources!

For example, we did not expect a 400 dollar drop for gold last year in Sept

 
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True or false

This is a ratio that is quite common among consistently profitable traders:
90% of trading profits come from 10% of trades.
True or false

 
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Time vs. Price -- Today’s recap -- Aug 24

Time vs. Price -- Today’s recap -- Aug 24

Today the market opened in a choppy mood until about 10:00AM and then initiated its morning run (over 12pt) until 11:20 -- so the overall today’s trend was UP

(1) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-lunch Move --the move started @13:10 (4pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward bias of the day)

(2) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move --the move started @13:54 (4pt)
– expect:
A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high of the day.


(3) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move ---the move started @15:08 (5pt)

– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
A resumption of the day’s trend if a counter-trend move occurs around 2:00pm and the market is trading down off of the high of the day in an up trend

Attached Thumbnails
ES Unfair Advantage-6.jpg  
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From the Chronicles of ES Unfair Advantage

From the Chronicles of ES Unfair Advantage

I've decided to review the last four months of market behaviour. I've started monitoring/recording the ES in April so I should have enough data for this task. Let see how the ES performed over those few months in regards to time vs. price.

 
  #169 (permalink)
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Chronicles of the ES Unfair Advantage

Time vs. Price Recap -- Friday, April 20, 2012

Hi, I've just finished setting up my workspace for this task and below are the results from my first retro day. I didn't choose this day on purpose -- it just happened that I've started recording ES that Friday.


On Friday, April 20, the market opened in a choppy mood and then
(1) around 10:10AM initiated its morning run (over 7pt) until 10:40 -- so the overall trend was UP

(2) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started @12:45 (1pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward or downward bias of the day) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN off the high of the day,

--the move gained only 1pt and then failed 7pt until 14:00 (i.e. undesired move)

(3) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon Move --the move started @14:10 (3pt)
– expect:
A resumption of the day’s trend if there was no move (or undesired move) from 1:00pm to just before 2:00pm,


(4) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move ---the move started a bit early @14:40 (5pt)
– the 2:00 pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend,

Attached Thumbnails
ES Unfair Advantage-es-06-12-5m-20_04_2012.png  

Last edited by dario1; August 25th, 2012 at 10:21 PM. Reason: typo
 
  #170 (permalink)
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Time vs. Price Recap -- Monday, April 23, 2012


On Monday, April 23, NY session opened @ 1361 and went down from there
(1) 9:35AM - 10:15AM NY Opening Hour Move
Market develops its trend or bias for the day -- the move was down (7pt)


And then around 10:15AM it initiated its Morning Move
(2) 10:15AM - 10:45AM Morning Move
– expect a counter-trend move of some sort in the first 45 to 60 minutes of the day’s trend or bias, if there is one. -- the move was UP (7pt)


(3) 12:45PM - 2:00PM Post-Lunch Move --the move started @12:55 (nearly 3pt)
– expect a resumption of the overall day’s trend (or upward or downward bias of the day) if:
1)the overall trend is UP and the market is trading DOWN


(4) 2:00PM - 3:00PM Afternoon move --the move started bit early @13:45 (nearly 4pt)
– expect:
2)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend if the market is testing the high or low of the day.


(5) 3:00PM - 3:30PM Delayed Afternoon move --the move started bit early @14:40 (4pt)
– the 2:00pm move will help dictate what may happen at 3:00pm,
expect:
1)A counter-trend move of the day’s trend

Attached Thumbnails
ES Unfair Advantage-es-06-12-5-min-23_04_2012_1630.jpg  

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