How can you tell if it will be a trending or choppy day? - Emini Index Futures Trading | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


How can you tell if it will be a trending or choppy day?
Updated: Views / Replies:12,716 / 39
Created: by Eiji Attachments:6

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors – all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you don’t need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 6  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

How can you tell if it will be a trending or choppy day?

  #11 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,679 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Rich Trader Poor Trader

The Pareto principle, states, that for many events roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. This “law of the vital few” is rampantly evident in business and economics, and especially on this forum. This is not to say that the forum is not an important and invaluable tool in the retail trading community. The problem is not with the forum, but with how people use the forum. Big Mike does an incredible job bringing in legitimate experts to perform very informative and professional webinars. Yet, I don’t see any evidence of the fruits of his labors manifested in the posts on the forum. Easily, 80% of the “banter” disseminated by posters on futures.io (formerly BMT) is either mis-information, or of no utilitarian value, and serves no purpose other than to perpetuate the “retail mentality” that pervades this forum. At times it reminds me of the welfare system only with indicators replacing food stamps.

Of course, everybody on this forum is a retail trader, one might answer. That does not mean, however, that you have to think, act, and trade like one. The markets are complex, and the competition is sophisticated, so don’t think you can compete against the smartest minds using the best technology with a little trend line, a moving average, and textbook cliche. Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight, and expect to come out alive. Please pardon the hypocrisy and the use of the cliche, but most aspiring traders want a strict rule based system, that has a high degree of profitability, little to no risk, minimal capitalization, and no knowledge of the markets required. They want rules they can count upon to make money, now and forever. Wrong approach - retail way to think.

The problem with an overly simplistic trading plan that simply trades one market with one or 2 set-ups, is when volatility dries up in your market, you don’t have others to turn to. When your one or two set-ups stop working, you are back to square one, frantically searching to find others that will work. Because there is not a top-down or bottom-up perspective on markets, there is not a framework or an understanding on how to think about markets. Retail traders are always waiting for some indicator to tell them when to trade and what to do, instead of knowing what they are going to do if the market breaks, and what they are going to do if the market rallies.

They are more interested in being right the market, than in making money, forever placing the emphasis on trading percentage instead of optimal trade management. Or if the are talking about making money, it’s on how they are going to spend it, when they make it big. There is a very salient reason why most retail traders fail; the retail mentality’s approach, attitude, and methodology, is so prohibitive it almost guarantees a low probability of success.

One of my colleagues on the “Spec List” once wrote “It’s possible to train people to perform to a certain level in chess, but if this training does not promote self- education and a philosophical attitude, then the trainees will be little more than performing seals.” Professional traders are looking at the same markets and accessing the same information as retail traders, but they interpret the information differently and implement their ideas in unique ways.

Conversely, the herd mentality is alive and well in the retail world as traders flock to whatever indicator gets the most hits, and whatever mechanical system requires the least amount of edification and practice to “master”, while essentially remaining clueless about the markets, price action, correlations, trade management, etc. The end result is everybody looks at the same things and trades the same way, and we all know what happens when everybody is the same way in the market.. ort...ort.


Last edited by tigertrader; January 29th, 2012 at 08:07 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 21 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #12 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,679 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Fat Tails View Post
But even if indicators are useless, it is more fun trading with some pretty colors, which will explain price action with hindsight and embellish your chart. Does n't this look convincing, and would not you have told you that price would have to hit these S/R lines prior to the start of the trading day?

There is a nice thread on random lines, which explains how a few horizontal lines may influence our brain.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Harry, my friend. Your indies are forever exempt from my criticism. They are like an oasis of utility in the otherwise desolate landscape of the mundane and secular. Quite frankly, I'd be lost without them. And yes, they are quite pretty, too!

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #13 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,095 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,192 given, 82,535 received



Eiji View Post
How can you tell if it will be a trending or choppy day?

Why are you concerned about such a thing? I can't think of the last time in years that I have ever needed something other than a chart with price on it to tell me if it is trending or choppy. And what does it matter. I am smart enough these days (experience) to not keep changing directions --- long, long, short, long, short, short, long --- and get killed in "chop". Once you stop changing directions so much, and you trade only at key price zones, then I can assure you that "avoiding chop" is really not even on your mind anymore.

I believe your stops are likely too small, you are trading too small of a chart, and you are just trading noise. A lot of people make this mistake. If you can't trade bigger charts, then it is because you are trading too big (size) and you need to stop trading full sized futures and look at micro's or spot forex, or 100 share ETF's, etc.

In short, the answer to your question is simply -- you are not asking the right question.

Just my opinion...

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following 17 users say Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #14 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,679 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Eiji View Post
So you are saying that a strategy based on indicators is doomed to failure?




Not all indicators are created equal; some are very useful ( if used properly), many are worthless. Basing your strategy solely on indicators is a fools errand. It's analogous to rote memorization of material vs. comprehension of material. It is eventually going to catch up to you, and you will be totally unprepared.


Last edited by tigertrader; January 28th, 2012 at 09:54 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #15 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego CA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: YM
 
Posts: 22 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 5 received


tigertrader View Post
The Pareto principle, states, that for many events roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. This “law of the vital few” is rampantly evident in business and economics, and especially on this forum. This is not to say that the forum is not an important and invaluable tool in the retail trading community. The problem is not with the forum, but with how people use the forum. Big Mike does an incredible job bringing in legitimate experts to perform very informative and professional webinars. Yet, I don’t see any evidence of the fruits of his labors manifested in the posts on the forum. Easily, 80% of the “banter” disseminated by posters on futures.io (formerly BMT) is either mis-information, or of no utilitarian value, and serves no purpose other than to perpetuate the “retail mentality” that pervades this forum. At times it reminds me of the welfare system only with indicators replacing food stamps.

Of course, everybody on this forum is a retail trader, one might answer. That does not mean, however, that you have to think, act, and trade like one. The markets are not easy, and the competition is sophisticated, so don’t think you can compete against the smartest minds using the best technology with a little trend line, a moving average, and textbook cliche. Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight, and expect to come out alive. Please pardon the hypocrisy and the use of the cliche, but most aspiring traders want a strict rule based system, that has a high degree of profitability, little to no risk, minimal capitalization, nor knowledge of the markets required. They want rules they can count upon to make money, now and forever. Wrong approach - retail way to think.

The problem with an overly simplistic trading plan that simply trades one market with one or 2 set-ups, is when volatility dries up in your market, you don’t have others to turn to. When your one or two set-ups stop working, you are back to square one, frantically searching to find others that will work. Because there is not a top-down or bottom-up perspective on markets, there is not a framework or an understanding on how to think about markets. Retail traders are always waiting for some indicator to tell them when to trade and what to do, instead of knowing what they are going to do if the market breaks, and what they are going to do if the market rallies.

They are more interested in being right the market, than in making money, forever placing the emphasis on trading percentage instead of optimal trade management. Or if the are talking about making money, it’s on how they are going to spend it, when they make it big. There is a very salient reason why most retail traders fail; the retail mentality’s approach, attitude, and methodology, is so prohibitive it almost guarantees a low probability of success.

One of my colleagues on the “Spec List” once wrote “It’s possible to train people to perform to a certain level in chess, but if this training does not promote self- education and a philosophical attitude, then the trainees will be little more than performing seals.” Professional traders are looking at the same markets and accessing the same information as retail traders, but they interpret the information differently and implement their ideas in unique ways.

Conversely, the herd mentality is alive and well in the retail world as traders flock to whatever indicator gets the most hits, and whatever mechanical system requires the least amount of edification and practice to “master”, while essentially remaining clueless about the markets, price action, correlations, trade management, etc. The end result is everybody looks at the same things and trades the same way, and we all know what happens when everybody is the same way in the market.. ort...ort.

Tiger,

Tough pill to swallow, but I think you've got me pegged. I am a newb trader and with just a few months of market study and will continue until I find proficiency. Thanks for knocking me around a bit.

Much of what I have read on the markets states that the simpler the plan/strategy the better and to follow the rules of that strategy. I have read Murphy's Technical Analysis, Carter's Book, Douglas....What can I study to get a grasp on price action?

e

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Eiji for this post:
 
  #16 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Las Vegas, NV
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Abacus, Slide Rule, HP-65, Metastock, TOS, NT
Favorite Futures: Futures
 
aligator's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,424 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 1,053 given, 5,820 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Eiji View Post
What can I study to get a grasp on price action?

This may sound harsh but it is not intended to be harsh. Think of learning price action and trading business this way. It takes at least 4 years for an engineering degree, ten years to become a doctor, and that is just to begin the new profession. Experience and time will help to actually put to work what you learned in school. Trading is the same, you become proficient after many years of study and hundreds or even thousands hours of watching price action.

So, read everything and learn the basic concepts of supply and demand, market structure, and really understand how and why a market behaves the way it does and you are on your way to an indicator free price action trading approach. The short answer is informed screen time.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to aligator for this post:
 
  #17 (permalink)
 Vendor: tradingcode.net 
The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: MultiCharts, TradingView
Favorite Futures: ...
 
Jura's Avatar
 
Posts: 774 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 2,347 given, 660 received


tigertrader View Post
(...)
Of course, everybody on this forum is a retail trader, one might answer. That does not mean, however, that you have to think, act, and trade like one. The markets are complex, and the competition is sophisticated, so don’t think you can compete against the smartest minds using the best technology with a little trend line, a moving average, and textbook cliche. Don’t bring a knife to a gunfight, and expect to come out alive.
(...)


tigertrader View Post
Not all indicators are created equal; some are very useful ( if used properly), many are worthless. Basing your strategy solely on indicators is a fools errand. It's analogous to rote memorization of material vs. comprehension of material. It is eventually going to catch up to you, and you will be totally unprepared.

Thanks for these good points TigerTrader. I have yet to find an 'cliche indicator' that works "as advertised" so I'm inclined to agree with you here.

However, some indicator to filter potential price action setups will probably still be needed. Can you mention some of the more "good", useful and "professional" indicators TigerTrader? Don't get me wrong, I'm not asking for a magic or profitable indicator, but an example from what experienced traders consider a good and professional indicator would be helpful. Would this be a complex mathematical indicator, or a rudimentary indicator based on a complex idea, or is it more the interpretation of a custom indicator that would make it "professional"? Or is it an basic standard indicator that gets "professional" through the discretionary decisions of the experienced trader?

That would make it concrete how we as beginners can escape the 'retail mentality'. Who can give an example of professionalism with retail trading?

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jura for this post:
 
  #18 (permalink)
 Vendor: www.traderwerks.com 
Taipei Taiwan
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: Optimus
Favorite Futures: TW
 
Posts: 693 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 440 given, 440 received


tigertrader View Post
One of my colleagues on the “Spec List” once wrote

“Spec List” ?

Math. A gateway drug to reality.
Reply With Quote
 
  #19 (permalink)
 Vendor: tradingcode.net 
The Netherlands
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: MultiCharts, TradingView
Favorite Futures: ...
 
Jura's Avatar
 
Posts: 774 since Apr 2010
Thanks: 2,347 given, 660 received


traderwerks View Post
“Spec List” ?

Niederhoffer refers to his list of contacts and contributors as the "Spec List" (see for example here). Though there probably more kind of "spec lists".

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Jura for this post:
 
  #20 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Diego CA, USA
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: TradeStation
Favorite Futures: YM
 
Posts: 22 since Jan 2012
Thanks: 12 given, 5 received



torroray View Post
I think you can download it from the download section. The problem is sometimes the indicator didnt produce any signal but since your ass itches you click buy/sell


Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > > How can you tell if it will be a trending or choppy day?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

Alternative Views on Traditional Tools w/Rhonda Jones

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

Al Brooks: TBA

Elite only

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Oct 19

RandBots: TBA

Oct 24
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Re:Trending Ribbon amruta NinjaTrader Programming 9 April 2nd, 2014 12:23 PM
Choppy Calm Ahead Of Potential Storm In Forex Markets Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 November 8th, 2011 10:20 AM
Stocks Look Choppy for Now, But Steep Correction Is Unlikely Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 May 23rd, 2011 06:20 PM
Week Ahead: Choppy Market Tries to Shrug Off Euro Worries Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 June 12th, 2010 03:00 AM
can we avoid this choppy time, 8-8.30am emini_Holy_Grail Traders Hideout 12 May 30th, 2010 11:40 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:51 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-09-21 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.156.58.187