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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #831 (permalink)
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Cogito ergo sum View Post
According to BofAML's Macneil Curry the Russell is dangerously close to completing a 4 month "Head-and-Shoulders Top". A close below 1099 is needed to complete the pattern, exposing significant downside to 1057 (5-year trendline), ahead of 988/975 (Head-and-Shoulders obj.).

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Big Mike View Post
Check out the book Evidence Based Technical Analysis by David Aronson. I like this book a lot, and one of its beautiful things is to lay out how everyone talks about a pattern name (H&S etc) when projecting, but then that pattern morphs over time and no one ever calls it a "failed H&S" once it's done and buried.

Mike

Interesting argument, thanks for the tip. I will add it to my reading list.

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Daily chart of TF - seen from a different perspective


Just for making a difference, I have built a daily TF chart by applying two indicators

-> an Ichimoku indicator
-> a supply & demand zones indicator (SD zones calculated from VWTPOs)

The chart clearly shows that TF is in a downtrend, as it makes lower higs and lower lows. The Tenkan Sen is below the Kijun Sen, prices has broken below the lower edge of the Kumo. This all suggests that the market should only be traded from the short side.

Entry timing shorts: A short trade may be initiated when a supply zone is hit. Best select an untested supply zone.

Entry timing longs: Friday's closing price was inside the candle body of Thursday's price action This is a piercing pattern, which is not as strong as a bullish engulfing pattern. Nevertheless there is a potential for an upward correction. A good long entry opportunity may arise when the lower of the two overlapping demand zones is tested again.


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Fat Tails View Post
...
-> a supply & demand zones indicator (SD zones calculated from VWTPOs)

Dear @Fat Tails

You knew the question would come... Is this version of supply & demand indicator your own creation or have you modified this version from mk77ch (clickme)?

ty

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Dear @Fat Tails

You knew the question would come... Is this version of supply & demand indicator your own creation or have you modified this version from mk77ch (clickme)?

ty

All Ichimoku, zigzag and SD indicators are own creations, still work in progress. I do not use 3rd party indicators.

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From my observations, TF seems to be hugging a very important zone currently. Any hypotheses on where we might be going from here? I'm assuming down, but the current level indicates very strong support.

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  #837 (permalink)
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Below is a monthly and a weekly chart. Monthly is still bullish, weekly is still bullish, though only by a hair. Daily is in a down trend. The other indices are comparatively stronger though the NQ is a little weaker than ES and YM. So I'm thinking it's going up but, if the others drop a bit more and perhaps more importantly the TF makes a swing lower on the weekly (under 1074.10) then I'm likely going to see it differently.


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@kbit--it's been awhile man. Hope you're still kickin' ass daily)

Totally agree. Been in a call contract (TZA) since April 7th, but the damn thing won't break through this current level. Expiration isn't until July, but I simply have this opinion that buyers have run out/a correction is long overdue.

Are you still trading futures? Ever do weekly options? I remember you saying that trading is all about levels--if I'm wrong, please correct me.

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nate99 View Post
@kbit--it's been awhile man. Hope you're still kickin' ass daily)

Totally agree. Been in a call contract (TZA) since April 7th, but the damn thing won't break through this current level. Expiration isn't until July, but I simply have this opinion that buyers have run out/a correction is long overdue.

Are you still trading futures? Ever do weekly options? I remember you saying that trading is all about levels--if I'm wrong, please correct me.

Yep still trading futures...mainly TF. Haven't got into options.
I still look at levels but giving more weight to what Ichimoku is telling me these days.

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I keep hearing about Ichimoku and have done my own research. Looks somewhat complicated, but my understanding is that it can be used on all time frames.

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