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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #51 (permalink)
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I'm kind of interested to see if 732 to 738 is going to be a problem on the upside. If we get through that area, somewhere short of 750 should happen (aroud745 ish). those are just areas to keep in mind.


We're at 738...this is the spot...keep an eye on it

Edit: I got a close above it but a little to soon as of this update to say....would just look for 738 to hold/get retested.
That's all for today since I'm likely talking to myself anyway.....


Last edited by kbit; November 11th, 2011 at 10:07 AM.
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  #52 (permalink)
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>
That's a daily Ichimoku, looks like the KS is about ready to come out on the upside of the cloud. At that point I will monitor closely the TS and KS relationship (and where price is in relation to the KS) to determine an entry for a long. It's to early to say anything yet but it's getting closer. Once it gets close I will move down time frames and so on and fine tune an entry.....stay tuned

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  #53 (permalink)
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Sometimes I get really frustrated with hindsight analysis.

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The bottom chart they circled "prepare for liftoff". We have:
a) RSI moving higher but below 70
b) MACD cross above 0
c) Price trading above SMA 50
d) Price trading on or near SMA 200

Then on the top chart, they conveniently forgot to circle nearly the exact same conditions:
a) RSI moving higher but below 70
b) MACD cross above 0
c) Price trading above SMA 50
d) Price trading on or near SMA 200

Here is how the charts look in real time, in other words the only time that really matters - when you are ready to make an actual trading decision:

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Now I am not saying you can't find other reasons for/against trading, but I just felt compelled to talk about the inconsistencies between the two charts using hindsight analysis.

When you look at the right edge of these two charts (my clipped version above) then you can see the "conditions" are nearly the same from a technical standpoint of what these two charts show, yet the outcome is massively different from one chart to the other.

Mike

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  #54 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Sometimes I get really frustrated with hindsight analysis.

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The bottom chart they circled "prepare for liftoff". We have:
a) RSI moving higher but below 70
b) MACD cross above 0
c) Price trading above SMA 50
d) Price trading on or near SMA 200

Then on the top chart, they conveniently forgot to circle nearly the exact same conditions:
a) RSI moving higher but below 70
b) MACD cross above 0
c) Price trading above SMA 50
d) Price trading on or near SMA 200

Here is how the charts look in real time, in other words the only time that really matters - when you are ready to make an actual trading decision:

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Now I am not saying you can't find other reasons for/against trading, but I just felt compelled to talk about the inconsistencies between the two charts using hindsight analysis.

Mike


Good eye Mike, I didn't notice that. A lot of this stuff I run across I just zip through because like I said a few posts ago, much of the stuff we run across contradicts each other and so forth. I, like you I suspect don't put a lot of wieght on all these "opinion" pieces. I do like to just get a general idea of all the views out there.

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  #55 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Good eye Mike, I didn't notice that. A lot of this stuff I run across I just zip through because like I said a few posts ago, much of the stuff we run across contradicts each other and so forth. I, like you I suspect don't put a lot of wieght on all these "opinion" pieces. I do like to just get a general idea of all the views out there.

Sure, no prob - I appreciate the posts and commentary from outside sources, but sometimes I feel these outside sources aren't trading their own charts. We've all marked up charts in hindsight that look awesome, myself included.

But I don't want people to focus on the wrong things.

What really made me spend a few minutes to do my "tear down" of his charts was the cockiness of his commentary "any questions?" lol. I mean it's all in good fun, and I get that, but it motivated me to put together the view from a real live trader, trading from the far right edge, and show how the two setups looked nearly identical on his charts yet had vastly different results.



Mike

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  #56 (permalink)
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Sure, no prob - I appreciate the posts and commentary from outside sources, but sometimes I feel these outside sources aren't trading their own charts. We've all marked up charts in hindsight that look awesome, myself included.

But I don't want people to focus on the wrong things.

What really made me spend a few minutes to do my "tear down" of his charts was the cockiness of his commentary "any questions?" lol. I mean it's all in good fun, and I get that, but it motivated me to put together the view from a real live trader, trading from the far right edge, and show how the two setups looked nearly identical on his charts yet had vastly different results.



Mike


I see what you mean....larger point that is. I have a habit of going "all over the map" . I will try to maybe just post things that I screen a little better and agree with what my outlook is.

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  #57 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
I see what you mean....larger point that is. I have a habit of going "all over the map" . I will try to maybe just post things that I screen a little better and agree with what my outlook is.

Hey I wasn't aiming anything at you. I appreciate your posts and helping bring in external commentary.

Mike

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  #58 (permalink)
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Hey I wasn't aiming anything at you. I appreciate your posts and helping bring in external commentary.

Mike

I understand, thanks

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  #59 (permalink)
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From PT

By Abigail F. Doolittle
In looking at the charts tonight, the one thing that is clear is the fact that the equity indexes are about to move and move big. Considering the challenges faced by yours truly around timing, “about” may actually mean about as in Monday or it may turn out to be the Monday a week later or two later, but when the equity indexes start to move out of the consolidation of the last few weeks, the “move” will be unmistakable.

At this time, the charts continue to tell me the “move” is more likely to be to the downside, but the potential upside move is not out of the question and will be very much a likelihood if the S&P closes back above 1279 and then 1300.

The two-year chart below shows the S&P’s Bullish or Ascending Fan Lines that can be used to monitor a possible reversal of the S&P’s 4-month downtrend that is clearly demonstrated by the top and most important Fan Line.


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Its current level is right around a critical band of resistance between about 1279 and 1300, and thus 1279 remains the level to watch around whether its recent consolidation will power it higher in the weeks ahead and followed by 1300.

Probably the simplest way to watch this situation and something that’s been drilled into my head letter after letter by my favorite market letter editor, Dennis Gartman, is the power of the trend of lower highs.

Until the S&P reverses its clear trend of lower highs that began on April 29, its intermediate-term trend is a downtrend and this is true today and its power can be seen in the chart above or even better in an unmarked two-year chart that is not shown here but is worth looking at. It will show you what nearly appears to be a giant Rounding Top and something that would play well into the thesis of those who believe the S&P’s current trading is similar to that of May 2008 and could lead to similar results.

However, the clean chart of the S&P shows me something more similar to what happened in 1998 but in massive form and that is the set-up for a huge Double Bottom.

Specifically, the chart on the following page shows what could become a giant Symmetrical Triangle and the very pattern that the S&P has been trading in over the last few weeks as can be seen by the markings.


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Interesting and not a coincidence of the mathematical sort is the fact the smaller Symmetrical Triangle’s target would take it to the bottom trendline of that potential larger Symmetrical Triangle right around 1150 for a potential touch that would serve to validate the bigger Symmetrical Triangle.

From there if “there” should come, the S&P could continue moving down in 2008-style to break the bigger Symmetrical Triangle to the downside. More likely, though, is a move back up to least the top trendline if not significantly higher on something akin to a Double Bottom or an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

Right now, though, it makes the most sense to think about the smaller Symmetrical Triangle and whether it will take the S&P to its minimum target of 1328 and a huge hurdle of resistance for the S&P or whether it will break to the downside.


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The weekly chart above strongly suggests to me that the trendline marking the S&P’s downtrend shall contain it once more and this means the smaller Symmetrical Triangle will break to the downside to take the S&P back below its 50 DMA and toward 1150 if not closer to 1100.


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It is for this reason that the “S&P’s Price Target” chart has been pulled out to show the S&P’s bearish and more than 5-touch Rising Wedge that has led to this Symmetrical Triangle “of “doubt” awaiting clarification” over Italy, Greece, France, QE3, the true state of the US economy and so much more and something that will entail enormous elucidation of the most encouraging sort in about a week, two tops, for the Symmetrical Triangle to break to the upside and for the Rising Wedge to fail.

Otherwise, it seems the desired “clarification” will come in the form of more of the uncertainty and fear to mark much of this year and something that should cause the Symmetrical Triangle to break down toward its target 1150 and the Rising Wedge to break down toward its target range of 1075 to 1116.

Another reason to bring out this chart is to reiterate my near-term target for the S&P of 1120 within a near-term range of 1120 to 1220 and something that has not been done since introducing each a few weeks ago. The trend of lower highs, the bearish Rising Wedge and the two Symmetrical Triangles support this target and target range and enough so that each seems worth mentioning at this time.

Whether or not this target and target range will prove to be accurate is to be seen, but the charts shown tonight strongly suggest that the S&P is about to see stars and the sort that come from being beaten up by the bear.

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  #60 (permalink)
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>

Todays Ichimoku showsthe KS is out of the cloud but the CS has dipped back into it.....just have to let some more time go by before I can make a decision on this. The 1hr briefly dipped (price) into the cloud but popped out and is currently hugging the top... basically still a waiting game for all the stars to allign.

On the tick charts there was a trade later in the day, a pinbar off S1...ended up working its way back to the vwap.
It wasn't the greatest spot but obviously worked.
>

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