Ironically, the most important technical aspect showing in the chart below is not highlighted and this is the S&P’s bearish Rising Wedge that carries a target of 1075 for a decline of nearly 20% from Friday’s close.
This potential decline will grow, though, for the very reason that it does not make sense to mark the S&P’s bearish Rising Wedge right now and this is due to the fact that the S&P appears ready to make a sideways swipe up into a wider version of last year’s trading range to some level between 1380 and 1422.
Pushing the S&P up most likely will be the small Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in purple that confirms at 1335 for a target of 1403 but with the S&P’s chart showing that the pattern may put in a partial fulfillment to the top trendline of that Descending Trend Channel or could exceed the target of the IHS to hit the 1422 target of an unmarked Falling Wedge comprised of the index’s trading this spring.
Where exactly the S&P lands on the upside is within this likely sideways range is of little real consequence due to the fact that the index is most likely to fulfill its bearish Rising Wedge in Q3 or Q4 of this year after a few months of trading the full range between 1266 and 1422 with some shot the top rises slightly. Less likely right now, though, is the much larger Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern forming from that small one marked in as had been pointed to as a strong possibility last week and this adjustment in interpretation reflects the strong bottom to the multi-year sideways range along with the ascending trendline that may mark the bottom of a large Symmetrical Triangle to form of the top descending trendline.
In turn, it seems likely that the S&P will spend this coming week between 1292 and 1329, but probably closest to 1300 for the bulk of that time, before popping higher the following week to confirm the current form of that IHS at 1335 for the aforementioned target of 1403 and presumably on the Federal Reserve extending Operation Twist at its June meeting or providing some other tangible reason for investors to believe that a little risk-on liquid love will soon splash through the system.
It is my inclination to believe that the Fed will extend its program to shift its portfolio toward longer-term securities as was detailed in last week’s Twist to Extend the S&P Higher? while the more aggressive accommodative action of launching a new round of bond-buying will be reserved for when the spread between nominal Treasurys and TIPS dips well below 1.5% and an event that will probably accompany the S&P fulfilling its Rising Wedge if not taking a shot at the 728 target of a Double Top that will remain good even after a few more months of potential sideways trading.
Let’s remain focused on the likelihood of a new round of sideways trading, though, and confirm its possibility by turning to the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index along with the VIX while noting that the dollar index appears set to drop down toward 80 as was detailed in today’s H&S in DXY to Stall Move to 88 and something that should help to boost the risk assets temporarily. Starting out with the VIX, it appears set to trade up between 25 and 26 to close a gap at 24.50 and to put in a right shoulder to a Head and Shoulders pattern that is likely to look pretty similar to the H&S showing in DXY.
This pattern confirms at 20.29 for a target of 12.29 to suggest that the VIX will drop low into its sideways trend if not breach it before putting in a complete fulfillment of its major Falling Wedge with a target of 48 in trading that is likely to mimic last spring and summer. Should the VIX dip back down below 20 and toward 15 deep into its sideways trend, it confirms the idea that the S&P is going to trade back up into what will be a wider version of last year’s sideways range.
Such a potential near-term move up by the S&P is confirmed, too, by the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Indicator that appears to be showing a Falling Wedge of some sort that could try to find an apex closer to 40 or may just start moving up from current levels to bounce toward that pattern’s target of about 85 and back above the “sell” signal found at 70.
Putting these charts of the S&P 500 Bullish Percent Indicator, the VIX and the S&P together, then, strongly suggests that sideways is back – again – before this “directionless” trading breaks for what is most likely to be a big move down on the most important technical aspect showing in the S&P’s relatively near-term charts.
upside spots 772.2, 776.2(area).......below looks like around 743.8, 735 then 726.3
750.5 and 756 are spots but are questionable.
Edit: I don't know how many of you guys pay attention to any of this stuff but basically you want to consider these spots as S/R areas if they are above they should work thier way up to the next or vice-versa.
I have no intention of telling anybody how to trade other than to look for PA before doing anything....
That being said I would be looking for 762.7 as my next upside target being that we are over todays 754.7
I've got a bunch of new spots...actually there's to many to close together because of all this chopping around so I don't want to list them here because it will just be a confusing mess.
When I think it's safer to post some more I will.
If you use a continuous back-adjusted contract, the prices will change but the levels will be the same in relation to prices around them.
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This was the question for me today and it has been a long standing question for me with it somehow not feeling right – for me – to bet on the shares of a company dropping for a potential profit. “For me” is emphasized because this is a highly personal decision and what does not feel good for me works beautifully for others and this is what makes the world go round not to mention an aspect of the market.
Based on some of your very nice questions and comments on this decision, though, it seems to have come as a surprise to many and probably due to my very bearish interpretations of pretty much any risk-on chart out there along with my involvement with some of the inverse ETFs. The truth is, however, that the idea of shorting an individual name has never appealed to me and it is for this reason that outside of briefly shorting JPM this morning on that hourly Broadening Top transformed from a Head and Shoulders pattern before feeling too bad about it – sick really even though it was so small it barely existed – there’s only one other short in what used to be a highly addictive and prolific personal account trading career a few years ago and that was DAL back in 2008 from about $20 to maybe $10.
Maybe a little success was found there but the trade was not enjoyable in any regard to me and certainly not in the way that it is to find a great long, particularly a penny stock that goes double digits, while the inverse ETFs have only been bad, really bad, trades for me. It seems to me, then, that it makes more sense for me to put my energies toward trading the way that I love and that is on the long side and especially on penny stocks, or other gamey longs, despite not writing on those names here – yet.
Interestingly, while I am confident that this strategy will work being aligned with the successful part of my trading history, it may be challenged by equity markets that look ready to fall off of a cliff and then plunge to the bottom of the ocean with liquidity not a problem there, and thus perhaps not a solution.
Exaggerations and puns aside, charts everywhere are flashing warning signals of some sort of big move down whether it comes after a brief move up by the S&P – and the other indices by extension – or just comes in the weeks ahead as some version of one intricate pattern is suggesting and it will be more difficult to find good longs in that sort of environment and probably more of a sidelines-until-a-bottom-is-found type of environment. As hard as that will be for me in some ways with those fears of “missing out” sure to kick in, it will be consistent with my earliest goals around PTR when I used to write often about how I would not short through stocks or ETFs on the still-coming 2088-type crash because it did not match what felt right for me.
Funny but the temptation was too much and frequent over the last three years and that boils down to one thing on my part and that is greed and for me, greed is never good, never works, and that’s probably why the majority of those trades did not work.
Putting my ugly and costly bouts with greed aside and returning to JPM above, it felt like a good short when I covered it at a small loss around noon and it looks like a good one now on that Broadening Top that confirms at $32.51 for a target of $29.97 with a touch down toward the confirming level looking highly likely tomorrow or Friday while the daily chart shows a severe downtrend in play with a Death Cross coming in the weeks ahead as it probably hits the $28 target of its Rising Wedge. In short, JPM does look like a short as do the financials overall with a bearish Death Cross on the come as its Rising Wedge tries to tug it down toward $10.85.
Amazingly as was noted earlier, $10.85 is the precise target of the XLF’s recent congestion that will turn out to be either a small Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern for a 10% move up or a Bear Pennant/Symmetrical Triangle for a 23% move down.
It is this exquisite and shifting-by-the-day bull and bear tension at play in all of the equity sector ETFs not to mention the equity indices that is making the chart watching very exciting right now but any trading probably pretty frustrating with it being best to not “trade the range” until the range breaks as discussed last week.
Probably the best and perhaps only way to gauge this tension is by using Bull Fan Lines against the severe near-term downtrend to see whether there is any reversal above a third Bull Fan Line and something that is not showing right now in the XLF considering there is not even a third Bull Fan Line in place yet. In turn, these technicals support the XLF’s Rising Wedge and its potential decline of more than 20% and something that should come in the weeks ahead without an ameliorating move up above $15 in the near-term.
Interestingly, there are other equity-related charts that are starting to show the third Bull Fan Line that would prove a reversal of that severe near-term downtrend as shown with the Nasdaq Composite on the following page, but there has been no trading anywhere above that bull and bear boundary with that potential action carrying the possibility of misleading investors briefly to some bullish hope as happened in late April and early May.
It is tempting to the chartist in me to say that because a third Bull Fan Line has formed in the Nasdaq Composite it means the downtrend will reverse to some degree, but it is the chart below that may be showing the vaguely-referred to über-bearish pattern from above that is also known as Three Peaks and Domed House that could bring about an actual stock market crash that would be consistent with the Rising Wedge highlighted below hitting its 2300 target.
Let’s leave that ugly possibility for another time, though, and one that will be very appropriate for the question of to short or not to short?
I should have told you guys the spots today I guess, they worked out very nicely...anyway I won't be trading tomorrow and would recommend you guys don't either but I will give out a few spots to watch for fun.
750.8, 747.1, 743.8 then down to about 726.2
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