kbit 

815 is an area we have to keep an eye on....if we get above it and hold we might work our way up to 850 again. for today I'm thinking 823 might be the topside....if it goes up and 817.5 is a spot to keep an eye on though not real strong I don't think On the downside if we get past 802 then we might work down to about 792 and before that 798 I'm thinking long but will take whatever comes..... Edit: looking like it's turning into a trend day up so.....

Well I guess 817.5 was better than I thought.....remember though that 815 is the line that needs to hold if this sucker is going up.....

It might dance around here for a while...so be aware of that

This week’s 3-day rally took out the last protruding highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Russell 2000 and S&P and it is this sort of technical move that must be respected as a signal that the recent one-month downtrend is reversing back up within a three-month sideways trend.

What makes this breaking of the lower highs interesting today, though, is that it has raised the level of the all-important third Bull Fan Line for the S&P, Dow and Russell 2000 and this strongly suggests, if not requires, a decline whether it comes tomorrow or next week and whether it is big or small in order to have these indices reclaim that trendline to prove the reversal of the 1-month downtrend.

Put most simply, it looks like the S&P and the other indices are about to make another sideways swipe down with degree being the preeminent question.

Should the S&P drop below 1387, it will confirm the lightly marked Bear Pennant for its target of 1359 and a level that is basically the level of the neckline of the Head and Shoulders shown above. In turn, it will put all attention on that bearish pattern and probably pretty quickly if the S&P fulfills the Bear Pennant completely with the H&S confirming at 1357 for a target of 1292.

One reason to think the S&P’s Bear Pennant will confirm by dropping below 1387 and will fulfill or come very close to fulfilling is shown not only in one of the inverse S&P ETFs but in the VIX.

It is showing a gorgeous Bull Pennant with a beautiful apex that appears capable of producing a sky rocket higher toward its target of 21 on confirmation of about 17.38.

In turn, a possible fulfillment of the VIX’s Bull Pennant may serve to confirm a larger Symmetrical Triangle for a target of about 29 and a level that will mean the S&P is going to confirm and fulfill its Head and Shoulders pattern either partially or completely.

Maybe the VIX avoids spiking higher on that Bull Pennant with complete failure probably near 13.66 as the S&P avoids its Bear Pennant and its H&S too, but more likely is the VIX using its Bull Pennant to confirm its Symmetrical Triangle – can be construed as an Inverse Head and Shoulders too – as the S&P uses its Bear Pennant to confirm its H&S for a potential drop down toward 1292 if not the index’s 200 DMA.

And it is for this reason that the VIX says sideways is about to get vicious.

I'll post some spots for monday later on....we got to 823 today which I thought might happen yesterday but doesn't matter anyway. It's possible that we get one more test of 815 and the next time it should hold pretty good so I would look to just go long there if we see it but the larger point is that we are likely going up to 850.....

This is a daily Ichimoku, as you can see it bottomed out on the lower end of the cloud and now popped through the top.

Based on where all the lines are you can't make the strongest case for going long but looking at some other stuff unrelated to Ichimoku would say that we're going up.

My thought is we are likely going back to 850....after that I'm not sure, we'll just have to see what things look like at that point but I'm not writing off that it won't rollover again.

All that being said the future cloud is bearish but is looking like it might twist and certainly will if price continues to climb.

For those of you that use Gabs method this is what we are looking at on the daily chart......

A few spots to keep an eye on...some of those fib numbers from the preceeding chart mainly the one at 836.
Also watch 832ish and on the dowside I mentioned previously to watch 815 but 817 might do something....kind of an area thing on this and then about 812

I can fine tune some spots once we get rolling on Monday.

Interesting day or maybe I should say UNinteresting day......we closed here right around the 815 area which I was thinking it would bounce off of and go higher but obviously didn't.

We'll just have to see what happens tomorrow, at this point the way it's playing out it just might be just a large scale chop fest with 815 being in the middle ?

Last week, the S&P attempted to reverse its 1-month downtrend and something that will be proven only after the S&P drops, whether minimally or noticeably, and then closes very roughly above last Friday’s intraday high.


Reason to believe this potential reversal may not happen is shown by the reversal of the S&P’s intermediate-term uptrend that was in place last week with its dip below the Bear Fan Line in red and a reversal that will reinitiate itself should the S&P drop below that trendline at 1394 today. It is this sort of drop that would strengthen the Head and Shoulders pattern drawn in above that confirms at 1357 for a target of 1292 and it is the Bear Pennant in blue that supports a continuation of the reversal of the S&P’s uptrend and a confirmation of the index’s H&S.

This Bear Pennant confirms at 1397 for a target of 1359 and it appears to be a pretty decent pattern and one that could cause the failure of the index’s odd but confirmed Double Bottom that carries a target of 1429.


In looking at the overall bearish weekly chart of the S&P above, it shows a Rising Wedge that is trying to confirm at 1357 for a target of 1075, but it leaves room for the possibility of a higher apex for that pattern before a potentially big drop, and thus it supports a correction-type decline at some point this year but provides less clarity on its own about the next month to three months.

Until, however, the S&P is back within that Rising Wedge at 1444 this Friday should it occur at all, it makes a degree of sense to believe it will attempt to confirm down without making that move up.

Right now, then, it seems that the S&P is more prone to at least a 5%+ drop with a potential correction following quickly behind.

For the guy who PMed me earlier
Here's a few spots on ES...see if they are any good.
1395, 1399.5, 1403, 1407.75..........1391, 1387, 1382

6E............ 1.3249, 3238, 3226, 3208......3263, 3288