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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #341 (permalink)
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salisem View Post
No apologies needed. We can't expect to be spoon fed by someone else.

Your right but I feel kind of stupid anyway....I went off half-cocked on that one...looking back after the fact I should have passed and kept my mouth shut.....it wasn't a real pretty setup.

Was a small hit so not a huge deal but I don't like mistakes...especially public ones

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  #342 (permalink)
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Being that I looked silly not long ago I hesitate in posting a possible long at 826.5

This one looks weak but is a setup ...I think I will just watch this and kick myself later for missing it

Edit: scratch the idea on this one ....missed it and it's to messy if it comes back......


Last edited by kbit; March 28th, 2012 at 03:04 PM.
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  #343 (permalink)
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Nothing like the markets to make us humble, right?

Long at 826 looks like it would have paid a nice 4 points.

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  #344 (permalink)
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These charts have been interesting to watch for many weeks now as the CRB Indexís Descending Broadening Formation traded out horizontally beyond what was reasonable into what seemed likely to form a Descending Triangle only to have it trade into a potential Double Bottom that might reverse much of that intermediate-term downtrend.


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Only after today this Double Bottom possibility basically failed after having weakened severely over the last several weeks as the CRB Index traded back down below its 50 DMA with past dips below this moving average turning into extended stays of various lengths as can be seen in the chart above.

All of this would seem to be bearish for the commodity complex and probably it is, but before turning to that case that was made prematurely here many times this past fall and winter, letís consider what might take the CRB Index back up in that reversal attempt and it would be a combination of a mangled-looking Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern with its right shoulder culminating in the apex of a bullish Falling Wedge. This latter pattern confirms around the 50 DMA at 316 for a target of 326 and the level that would confirm the possible HIS for its target of about 356.

Competing with the near-term Falling Wedge and the intermediate-term Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, though, is a long-term and seemingly confirmed Rising Wedge that was detailed in last Octoberís Correction In Commodities to Continue?

It is a challenging pattern to mark with just its last half highlighted in that weekly note and really not a Rising Wedge on its own and so to simplify matters a bit, it is shown with an Ascending Trend Channel that has been clearly breached to the downside starting last September.

Perhaps this multi-month breach of what had been an uptrend somehow reverses itself, but this will require an extraordinary move to some level between 375 and 400 in the months ahead and no easy feat as will be seen in the chart on the following page.

More likely is a continuation of the year-long downtrend and something that could be accelerated precipitously by the Symmetrical Triangle shown to the right.


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Letís look at both sides of this pattern, however, because if ever there was a pattern to catapult the CRB Index back into that Ascending Trend Channel it is this Symmetrical Triangle that confirms to the upside safely at 375 for a target of about 450. As extreme and outlandish and oh-so 2008 as that may seem, so, too, does the downside scenario that confirms at a seemingly more reasonable 292 but for a less reasonable target of about 220 and, ironically, very close to the target range of the full Rising Wedge between about 200 and 225.

Worth noting in the monthly chart shown above is a decent-looking and confirmed Pipe Top that carries a target of about 295 or so and a level that would tilt the already-bearish chart above into the even more bearish camp.

What makes all of this interesting to me beyond the fact that it may prove that October note to have been somewhat helpful putting aside the sideways trading of the last six months is the fact that it may make for the Fast Flight to Liquidity? called for back in December.

In turn, these charts support the thesis of a rising dollar and the 88 target of the dollar indexís confirmed Falling Wedge and this may tell us that this potential dollar strength may not be the kind to carry the stock market higher on a tide of economic health but rather a fear-driven flight to dollars.

Relative to watching some version of this scenario through the CRB Index, it makes sense to do so through broad levels and those are 292 and 326. Above the latter level and the potential flight to liquidity will have been averted but below the former level and it will be in effect most likely.

Should the downside scenario start to look like a reality with even a retesting of that 292 area, it may also make sense to remember that last yearís sell-off in commodities was three months ahead of the correction in the equity markets and a continuation of the correction that occurred in the commodity complex in May in what might have been a preview to an upcoming flight to liquidity.

It is for this reason that it is important to respect the CRB Indexís intermediate-term downtrend that remains very much in effect despite a bit of sideways respite.

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  #345 (permalink)
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Without making a long story we are at 833 and are likely headed to 835.5 where it is likely to stall as I see it.
Those are the numbers I was looking for yesterday before it fell apart.

I will look at it tomorrow and see if it might run up to the 842 area or come back down....let's see what happens tonight.

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  #346 (permalink)
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Looks like my 835.5 and 833 played a role today....nice to see it cooperate.

I did not get a trade off the bottom...just didn't get a good signal and frankly was hoping to see it a bit lower.

Anyway it will go back to 825.8 at least...whether it opens there or whatever I don't know but it will get printed.
Actually the way its played out I expect it to go lower (823 ?).

So we'll see what happens around that area.


Last edited by kbit; March 30th, 2012 at 06:21 PM. Reason: corrected the 825.8
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Congratulations on your journal!



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Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
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  #348 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Congratulations on your journal!



In the spirit of our March Trading Journal contest, I am asking everyone to spend a few minutes and share their journaling experience.

A) What are the top five benefits you have seen as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

B) What are the top five problem areas you have identified as a result of regularly posting in this journal?

C) Were you initially reluctant to start this trading journal? If yes, why?

D) How do you feel, overall, about your journaling experience?

E) Would you recommend to others that they should also start a trading journal?

Thank you for taking the time to answer my questions. I appreciate your posts, and I hope you have benefited from your journal. I also know that others will benefit as well, just by reading about your own experiences.

Enjoy your weekend,
Mike

A) I'm not sure of any benefits to me to be honest other than helping me remember some of the spots I pick out other than that might be to show what a genius I am

B) Only a minor problem area that I can think of and that would be public mistakes, and the worst part of that would be if I was responsible for someone losing money.
I think most around here don't blindly follow "trading advice" but it is a concern.

C) Not reluctant to start this thread, my original intent was to have a discussion about the TF and also some thoughts about Ichimoku. Over a period of time it morphed into a journal of sorts and as everyone knows I kind of go all over the map in what I'm posting but I haven't got criticized or banned yet so all is well.

D) I am somewhat indifferent to posting my ramblings but if it somehow is a benefit to others I can feel warm and fuzzy inside.

E) I would recommend others have some sort of journal or at least to some degree participate in an existing one, I think it does help others to see what other traders look at, think about, act on and so forth.
The free exchange of ideas helps everyone including yourself.

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  #349 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Looks like my 835.5 and 833 played a role today....nice to see it cooperate.

I did not get a trade off the bottom...just didn't get a good signal and frankly was hoping to see it a bit lower.

Anyway it will go back to 825.8 at least...whether it opens there or whatever I don't know but it will get printed.
Actually the way its played out I expect it to go lower (823 ?).

So we'll see what happens around that area.

After watching where the ES opened up I'm wondering about 825.8 but that is what the chart says so we'll see

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Ice commentary on the Russell:

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2012 Good Friday Holiday Trading Schedule:

STOCK INDEX PRODUCTS
DATE ELECTRONIC OPEN OUTCRY
Thu, Apr 5
Regular Hours
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Fri, Apr 6
Early Close Ė 9:15 am
TAS trading will not be held
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