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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #331 (permalink)
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salisem View Post
It's into the 840's now... up, up, and away? Or back into the 820-830 range that's had such a strong pull?

We're to close to 850 to not hit it I would think...actually 860 ish probably is in the cards somewhere down the line.

I don't even have a guess as to what will happen the next few days...just winging it

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  #332 (permalink)
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I thought I would post a daily Ichimoku since its been a while...

Based on my observations over time I would say in about 10 days we should get a drop to at least the top of the cloud and more likely a move to the bottom or lower.

Take note of how nice was support at the KS a couple days back.

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  #333 (permalink)
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pt's take on things


It has been some time since writing on this pattern that last showed itself imperfectly in the equity indices from late 2010 into the summer of 2011 with its “nine times out of ten” bearish result having shown itself rather well in August.


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Last year’s pattern showed itself first in the Russell 2000 and a pattern that traded into a Flat-Bottomed Broadening Top while this year’s potential pattern is showing itself first in the Russell 2000 again only this time it is looking like an Orthodox Broadening Top and this means one more touch to both the top trendline and the bottom trendline before the Russell 2000 should drop from the top trendline down through the bottom trendline.

Clearly, though, as you can see by the chart above, there’s a good bit of trading left to this pattern before it might come into play in the second or third quarter and this trading will be all about a sideways range between about 775 and 865 before the pattern breaks if such sideways trading comes to be.

Nine times out of ten is not ten times out of ten, though, and so in these unusually liquid times, let’s consider a possible upside breakout that will probably confirm around 895 for a target of about 975 and a level that should not be dismissed as it could make the highest peak in a potential Broadening Top of all Broadening Tops detailed in February 10’s Recession, Depression or Recovery?

Sticking to the here and now, sort of, it is a matter watching to see whether the Russell 2000 confirms a now bigger Bear Pennant but with the same 785 target by dropping below about 830. From there if “there” should come, it is a matter of seeing whether the Bear Pennant fulfills as the Russell 2000 then drops a bit lower for that classic Broadening Top or maybe holds right at that level another Flat-Bottom Broadening Top before heading higher for that aforementioned round of sideways trading.

This pattern is barely showing in the other indices but there is enough of a skeleton in place that a possible fulfillment of the Bear Pennants at play could pop it this potential pattern out as has already started to happen in the Russell 2000.

Relative to the equivalent Bear Pennants in the Dow, Nasdaq Composite and S&P, each is pretty mangled at this point and really needs the intraday Bear Pennants detailed yesterday and today to confirm and fulfill to bring the bigger patterns back to some semblance of sense.

This means watching confirmation levels of 13166, 3100 and 1410 for targets of 13003, 3045 and 1388 in the Down, Nasdaq and S&P, respectively while the Russell 2000 should be watched more so from the standpoint of its still intact bigger daily Bear Pennant that again confirms at 830 for a target of 785.

Should that pattern confirm and fulfill in the Russell 2000, it will be even more appropriate at that point to say, It’s Back – The Broadening Top.

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  #334 (permalink)
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The Unstoppable US Equity Rally In Perspective

'The current rally is running long; equities are due for a 3-5% pull-back' is how Deutsche Bank begins to give some context to the scale of the performance of stocks over the last four months.

Whether it be liquidity-fueled optimism, optically-pleasing macro data, crisis-fatigue, or just good old-fashioned back-up-the-truck-we're-all-in buying since the last 10% correction in November, the S&P 500 has rallied 22% - essentially unimpeded for 80 days without a drawdown.

In between 5% selloffs, the median rise in the S&P 500 is 10% and the duration is 56 days so this current rally is indeed getting long in the tooth (with a 2.5% retracement the best the bears have managed in 2012).

To get a better sense of how equities may perform after such a big rally, Deutsche identifies 8 similar cases to the current one when a 10%+ drawdown was followed by a 15%+ recovery: Jul-50, May-70, Dec-74, Aug-98, Sep-01, Oct-02, Feb-03 and Mar-09.

At the same point in the rally (i.e. after 3mo), the market continued to grind higher the next 3 months by 4% on average. So a move of this size and velocity (and smoothness) has only occurred 7 times in the history of the S&P 500 and a quick glance at some of those dates marks some notable periods in US economics (and global geopolitics).

Trough to Peak Returns between Two 5% Drawdowns - we are starting to get in to the best ones ever...

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Number of trading days between Two 5% Drawdowns...

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And the S&P 500 has only risen by more than this on six other occasions after a 10% drawdown...

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and many of those were during some of the most crisis prone periods this nation has ever experienced.


The Unstoppable US Equity Rally In Perspective | ZeroHedge

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  #335 (permalink)
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By the way I'll be watching around 832.7 for some action.....I have that as a dowside target so it might flip around there..

It's not the best looking trade so just keep an eye on it and see if something happens

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We hit 832.7 so now we wait and see if we can go long around here......

I'm just waiting for a sign either way.

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  #337 (permalink)
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831.3 might be a good spot for a shot at a long.....or would that be a long shot

833 first bump then 835.5

the bad part is we're heading into lunch


Last edited by kbit; March 28th, 2012 at 11:21 AM.
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Low of 828. Hoping for a bounce back this afternoon...

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  #339 (permalink)
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I just realized after getting stopped out on that I misread my chart....sorry about that if anyone took it.

I will wait for another setup.....we all make mistakes....oops

Monthly vwap at 827.10.....

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No apologies needed. We can't expect to be spoon fed by someone else.

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