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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #311 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
What appears to be an oasis for traders may actually be a mirage

Seriously, what do you mean by a "footprint". Has it something to do with volume? or bigfoot sightings maybe!

I came up with it after watching that sasquach show on AnimalPlanet...

It's merely a candle pattern kind of thing... just take my word for it that it works...
It's something that I see usually on a Kase bar chart.

I really need to post an example for you to look at ....though you may still think I'm crazy the fact that 802.5 did something should say something.

I picked up on it quite a while ago and it's reliable for identifying spots

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  #312 (permalink)
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Investor Sentiment: Get a Parachute?

Like last week, the "dumb money" remains extremely bullish and the "smart money" is bearish. What is also certain is that the bulls remain in control, yet the best gains are clearly behind us. What is uncertain is what happens when the music stops - will you find a chair to sit in or will you need a parachute?

The 2010 liquidity love fest ended in the May 5 flash crash, and the 2011 version saw the SP500 drop 18% in 3 weeks. I ask myself everyday: if I am buyer today will I be able to get out of this market safely and without a parachute? Without a pullback to buy in to, I have my doubts.

The “Dumb Money” indicator (see figure 1) looks for extremes in the data from 4 different groups of investors who historically have been wrong on the market: 1) Investors Intelligence; 2) MarketVane; 3) American Association of Individual Investors; and 4) the put call ratio. This indicator shows extreme bullishness.

Figure 1. “Dumb Money”/ weekly
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Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the SP500 with the InsiderScore “entire market” value in the lower panel. From the InsiderScore weekly report: "Insider selling levels remain elevated, however, conviction lessened slightly this past week and there were modest increases in the number of buyers and companies with buying.

The biggest change occurred within the S&P 500, where a bust of buying was followed up this past week with a near record number of weekly sellers. The Materials sector was one of the leading sources of selling and buying within the Banking industry decreased suddenly and dramatically."
Figure 2. InsiderScore “Entire Market” value/ weekly
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Figure 3 is a weekly chart of the SP500. The indicator in the lower panel measures all the assets in the Rydex bullish oriented equity funds divided by the sum of assets in the bullish oriented equity funds plus the assets in the bearish oriented equity funds.

When the indicator is green, the value is low and there is fear in the market; this is where market bottoms are forged. When the indicator is red, there is complacency in the market. There are too many bulls and this is when market advances stall. Currently, the value of the indicator is 71.72%.

Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms. Values greater than 58% are associated with market tops. It should be noted that the market topped out in 2011 with this indicator between 70% and 71%.
Figure 3. Rydex Total Bull v. Total Bear/ weekly
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  #313 (permalink)
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Little lazy today...don't feel like doing any homework....813 looks like a spot to watch on the downside we're looking at 790 for a target but that might change to even a lower number.

for some reason I have 787 floating around my head but can't remember why at the moment....something I looked at a few days ago.

I'll try to post something more informative tomorrow

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  #314 (permalink)
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From pt

As early as February 9, the strange sideways consolidation showing in the Russell 2000 was discussed here and then dissected as the congestion turned into a Double Top and then into a Symmetrical Triangle last week into early this week.


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That last pattern began to confirm to the downside earlier this week only to create the Symmetrical Triangle marked in last night that did rather well for itself today as shown above with the pattern confirmed to the downside for its target of 790. Perhaps more important, though, is the fact that the Russell 2000 is undeniably below its third Bear Fan Line in red and this signals a reversal of the index’s near-term uptrend and it was this sideways trading that was noted as a reason to think the risk rally could be at risk in Tuesday night’s A Breakout, Holdbacks and the RUT. Summed up, the RUT seems to be stuck in a rut and it may not bode so well for risk.

Equally worth noting is that when its recent trading is viewed in the context of the sideways trend that held it captive for much of the first half of last year, record highs and all, perhaps the greater significance of a possible drop down to 790 is the likelihood of the Russell 2000 dropping down toward the bottom of that range near 771.

In turn, this potential 4% decline for small cap may signal a 5-10% decline for the other indices that have been somewhat shielded by AAPL with the Dow showing some disguised sideways weakness similar to what’s taking place in the RUT, 13000 and all, and perhaps for the lack of that protection too.

The bigger problem with the Russell 2000’s recent downturn, though, is showing in the seeming right shoulder it creates for a multi-year Head and Shoulders pattern and one that was detailed in February 10’s Recession, Depression or Recovery?

At that time, the pattern was more about projection whereas at this time, there’s still some projection involved, but there’s a good bit of reality as can be seen in the weekly chart on the following page.

This pattern is absurd like AAPL’s Rising Wedge along with all of the other extreme bear patterns showing in charts everywhere that call for 50%+ declines and to a degree that it may actually start to make sense to begin thinking about that kind of decline happening for real. It may be early, but now is the time to think about it, not when it happens at some point later this year or in 2014 if it is reinflated into the future.


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Be that as it may, there’s no question that the Russell 2000 is showing the structure of a classic Head and Shoulders pattern and it is similar to the pattern showing, funny enough, in basic materials, copper and many other market segments that are seemingly unrelated to small cap.

What relates all of these charts, of course, is the disgusting greed and consumerism made possible by supply side economics, perhaps, that was so outrageous that it actually hit the impossibility of the infinite slope in the near-collapse of the system in 2008 and a collapse that is still coming but just in slow-motion waves unless the Fed manages to defy and redirect physics as it may.

Anyhow, the fact that the Russell 2000 is now showing a good skeleton for a beautiful Head and Shoulders that will try to take the index down to 350 and right around the level that confirms a truly massive Double Top also detailed in Recession, Depression or Recovery? may lend some reason to believe that 2012 will be a repeat of 2011 but with a possibly more corrective correction.

Should this prove true, one of the first truly strong technical signs of it is showing in a big H&S in small cap.

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  #315 (permalink)
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The One Chart That Shows Where AAPL and the Market Are Heading

Is Apple going to $1,000 per share and dragging the market higher with it?

Sometimes one chart tells us more than a thicket of charts. Every analyst and punter seeks an "edge" by plotting and comparing innumerable indicators, ratios, correlations and data points. Sometimes all this complexity pays dividends, but if it did so consistently then 90% of hedge funds and mutual funds wouldn't be underperforming index funds. Sometimes a single chart says it all.
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Chart courtesy of the Macro Story.
Any questions?
Yes. Doesn't this mean that AAPL (Apple) is on its way to $1,000 per share based on iPad 3 sales, and with strong growth in GDP and corporate profits, the Dow Jones Industrials are going to 15,000 and the S&P 500 is heading for 1,500? Answer: If that's what you see in this chart, then that's what the chart means to you.

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  #316 (permalink)
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Sorry I haven't posted much lately...been busy doing some other stuff.
I guess 790 and 787 weren't all that great. I still haven't spent any time figuring the best spots so I would just look for the obvious like 793-4 and 798 on the downside 778 and 773

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  #317 (permalink)
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from pt

The Russell 2000 started to turn slightly sideways on February 9 as AAPL was just starting the most parabolic part of its recent and, perhaps ongoing, parabolic move up and it was at that time that it made sense to write a note titled RUT Struggles to Confirm Its IHS.


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It was worth pointing out the fact that the Russell 2000 was balking below the official neckline of its Inverse Head and Shoulders, and the top trendline of its bearish Rising Wedge in blue, considering that the other indices had begun to confirm the IHS pattern showing in each and something that suggested the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq Composite were setting up a 10-15% move up rather than moving down by 15-20% on the aforementioned Rising Wedge.

Not so much with the Russell 2000 as it closed above the neckline of its IHS for just one day and then fell from that ascending trendline to favor, possibly, the bearish Rising Wedge riding on the back of its Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern made bad by October 27’s vision-for-a-plan-to-save-Europe rally.

In so doing the Russell 2000 continued to trade sideways and something that began to reverse its near-term uptrend last week with this small cap index falling below its set of Bear Fan Lines that show a trend reversal to the downside with that nascent reversal made a bit more obvious over the last three trading days and particularly today as the Russell 2000 closed below its 50 DMA.

This cross below its 50 DMA also served to confirm a Rounding Top with a conservative target of 750 and a level below the Russell 2000’s 200 DMA, confirm its bearish Rising Wedge pattern with a target of 602 and cement the right shoulder of this index’s possible Head and Shoulders pattern marked in dashes.

All in all, then, today was a pretty bearish set-up day for the Russell 2000 and one that may provide a bearish blueprint for the other indices that are all still well above the 50 DMA level in each and, in turn, signal that equity indices, and individual securities and ETFs by extension, may head down for a 200 DMA dance at some point in the weeks ahead.

Might this potential 5-10%-type drop in equities happen in one shot in the days ahead and as a reversal to the more bullish nature of January and February? Yes, absolutely, but there’s a good chance it could come in stages too with the Russell 2000 well back within its sideways range and something that is true of the S&P and Dow too.

Relative to the Russell 2000’s sideways range it appears headed to 771 at a minimum but this could translate into something much closer to the middle of its sideways range around 730 to signal that a much bigger bearish drop for equities could be ahead.

Such a signal will be provided, of course, if the RUT remains in a rut in the days and weeks ahead.

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  #318 (permalink)
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I missed the well well well thing today.

the decline today normally wouldn't concern me too much. but there are a few things I don't like. like the warning of mrk because of the euro weakness. just hope not too many companies will follow. higher oil prices of course could hurt earnings as well. and if in fact earnings estimates are too high, then that would be a fundamental change for me.

always had to laugh when I read about those conspiracy theories. now here's mine: we found strong evidence that "quantitative tightening 1" officially started. this is an election year, and what president would like to have a burden of a $5 price tag at the gas pump. and since oil prices are not determined by supply and demand, the easiest way to put pressure on oil is to sell equities.

of course there were other reasons, like china's economy slowing down or once more greece with that deadline. nothing but cheap excuses if you ask me.

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  #319 (permalink)
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Looks like silvester stepped in at the 93 area and ran it over the top....the guy won't give up

For tonight anyway right off the bat I'm expecting a dip to about 802 and then back up to 805, the 802 is a bit of a guess but wherever it turns the target is 805 on the return trip.

Being NFP tomorrow I don't want to stick my neck out with spots tonight...again just kind of watch the obvious ones.

I got to think 798 and 790 will play another role somewhere but it might not be tomorrow.

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  #320 (permalink)
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kbit View Post
Looks like silvester stepped in at the 93 area and ran it over the top....the guy won't give up

For tonight anyway right off the bat I'm expecting a dip to about 802 and then back up to 805, the 802 is a bit of a guess but wherever it turns the target is 805 on the return trip.

Being NFP tomorrow I don't want to stick my neck out with spots tonight...again just kind of watch the obvious ones.

I got to think 798 and 790 will play another role somewhere but it might not be tomorrow.

now you're starting to scare me.

how on earth did you know I bought in the 93 area?


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