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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #241 (permalink)
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Just wanted to write this here so I can look back and see how far off I was but...On ES anyway I'm seeing a high of 1346.75 and a low around 1334.50 on monday.

I have to spend some more time on the TF....

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  #242 (permalink)
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Slim chance of getting new high on ES today (though the range was about right)and my thought of a low at 34 and change fizzled but anyway...

I think we might need to get a new high before we get some kind of pullback....though if we continue to grind around in a tight range it might not pullback and just jump higher again.

At present course and speed which could change of course but it looks like we could visit that 802.5 spot I picked out a few days ago maybe by wednesday....
I kind of expect it to chop around some more tomorrow and break on Wed...just a guess.

We need to see what happens when it breaks todays high or low...I'm laying low until then

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  #243 (permalink)
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Just a random thought since I am qiute bored today.

Is it just me or was the whole freaking world going to fall apart and the ES was going to 800 or something and then for some reason...out of nowhere really the market decides to rally up to where we are now starting Jan 1st......

Where was there any news or ecnomic justification for this ?

It's interesting ...it really started the day after BAC closed under $5.00.....literally....

I think there is/was an orchestrated effort by the PPT or whomever to bullsht everyone and point us in a different direction.

I know this is a very tired argument and a bit conspirisistic(is that a word?) but you really have to wonder....
How many guys around here and everywhere else for that matter just keep/kept looking to short.

Spare me the cliches and so forth, I know to do what the chart says...it just seems odd.....

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  #244 (permalink)
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It could be considering how bad its possible Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern looks with a bearish Rising Wedge riding right on its back.


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Interestingly, its Rising Wedge is trading toward a perfect apex area right about now with there being some room for a move to about 13200 and a note worthy level considering it nearly matches the level provided by the 3% rule around both the Dow’s attempt on the top of that Sideways Trend Channel and its potential Double Top. Relative to that 3% rule, it is an imperfect way of marking whether a breakout attempt, up or down and from any defined technical aspect, is real or not and it is calculated by adding or subtracting 3% of the level being watched to or from that level.

Practically speaking around the Dow at this moment, it translates to a level that is a bit above 13200 and should the Dow close above that level in a convincing manner, there is a good chance the Dow will climb higher toward the 14000 target of its possibly improbable IHS pattern. However, should the Dow fail to take out 13200 or so on a closing basis, its IHS will be proven improbable as that Rising Wedge will try to confirm at about 12250 for a target of 10400 and something that would be most consistent with the history of that Sideways Trend Channel that marks a sideways trend that’s been quite vicious at times.

The reason the Dow’s nearly two-year sideways trend is so vicious is because the minute it seems that it’s about to be broken to the up or the downside, the sideways trend whipsaws it in the other direction and one reason to think this could occur again is shown by that Rising Wedge and that possible Double Top pattern that shows more majestically in weekly form not to mention a multi-year Rising Wedge pattern.

It seems this confluence of bearish aspects could overturn that seemingly weak Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and one that was made weak by the late October Europe Is Saved – Again – rally.

As notable as that possible Double Top in the weekly chart is the Falling Wedge and Rising Wedge combo that the Dow has been trading in over the last year or so in a pattern duo that seems to mimic the pattern duo of 2007 and 2008 even if the composition of the two patterns is not precisely the same in both pairs.

Returning to that Double Top alone, it remains valid so long as the Dow is below 13250 while it confirms at 10405 for a target of 7935.


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As can be seen by the first top of sorts, there is a strong chance that the Dow could trade sideways for a bit but below that 13250 before its Rising Wedge in red eventually tries to tug it down toward confirmation and then its target with the latter level serving to confirm the Double Top for its well-sub-10000 target and something that won’t bring out hats but handkerchiefs.

One reason to think this could be true, though, is shown by the larger Rising Wedge marked in lightly that had been confirmed until just recently and a pattern that will reconfirm if the Dow should drop below about 10405 for its outrageous and bucket-requiring target of 6470. Whether or not the Dow would fulfill that pattern entirely if at all is to be seen, but there is no question that it puts bearish background pressures on its charts and something that favors the failure of its IHS pattern for the sake of the smaller Rising Wedge and the Double Top.

Timing, of course, is tough to determine, but it seems likely that the Dow could trade sideways between about 11900 and 12900 for a few weeks to months with the possibility that a peak or two near 13200 is put in before the Dow starts to head down at some point in 2012 and probably in the first half of the year.

Unless the Dow rises well above those higher levels, there is a good chance that there’s a Double Top in the Dow that will take it down relatively soon.

(just remember I post this for your consideration but if you really want to know what's going on listen to me)

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  #245 (permalink)
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It had been flashing just yellow the last few times the VIX has been detailed in these notes, but it’s closer to red now that it appears near to finding some sort of apex to its current and bullish Falling Wedge.


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In looking at the six-month daily chart above, it appears to have put in some sort of Double Spike Bottom that will support a rise to about 20.00 and a level that would bring the VIX closer to safe confirmation of its Falling Wedge at about 22.50. Such a potential bottom even appears supportive of a fast spike up to about 30.00 or so, but the VIX’s three-year weekly chart is really calling for a true bottom to that Falling Wedge at about 15.00 or so and this seems to suggest that any sort of near-term move up to 30.00 would occur within a month only to be followed by an equally fast fall back down.


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Relative to a possible move up to about 30.00 and one that could start in days but probably would not last longer than a few weeks, it is supported by the small kickback rallies involved in the true apexes around 15.00 to those other fulfilled Falling Wedges with the VIX’s current Falling Wedge carrying the same target of about 48.00.

Put most simply, it seems that the VIX may or may not climb to about 30.00 in the weeks ahead with it seeming very likely that irrespective of that possible move up, the VIX will bottom out in the first half of this year at about 15.00 before climbing significantly higher toward 48.00.

In turn, this suggests that the equity indexes will fail to take out the long-term levels of resistance that are being approached right now as some volatile sideways trading in the months ahead ultimately resolves itself at the bottom of the matching long-term Sideways Trend Channels if not significantly below.


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As shown by the chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above, possible sideways trading in the months ahead would probably take place between about 12000 and 13000 before its bearish Rising Wedge, and the inverse pattern to the VIX’s Falling Wedge, might try to fulfill in full sincerity toward its target of 10400 and closer to the bottom of that Sideways Trend Channel that gains better definition with longer charts.

It is the chart of the VIX with its close-to-fulfilling Falling Wedge, as in 3 to 6 months, that most strongly suggests that the Dow will fail to climb 3% above last year’s intraday peak and that the sideways trend at a minimum will claim it while the potential Double Top born of last year’s top and this year’s potential top-to-be will try to take the Dow well below the bottom of that Channel and into a new old sideways trend entirely.

In turn, it seems worth paying attention to the fact that the VIX is flashing yellowish red.

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  #246 (permalink)
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Looks like the ES will maybe work up to 1346.75 on vapor volume overnight when nobody is looking....

Which brings me more to the point...that is a lot of guys are saying that just over 50 should hold for sure ( I have it at 51.5) but I am expecting something to happen at 46.75....

If your awake when it's around these spots keep your eyes open....

The TF has seemed to run out of gas and I'm having a hard time figuring out any particular spots other than maybe Fridays high so......

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  #247 (permalink)
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It looks like now we are posistioned to go either down to 802 or 850 on the upside ..
Actually it would have been nicer to dip a little lower today but it's probably close enough.

If you think about it with this just churning around here it's going to set up a scenario where those targets will get hit when it breaks out one way or the other.

The longer it churns the greater the likelihood that this will occur.

We will have to watch that 51.50 on the ES and probably 834 on the TF (not 100% sure on TF number, might be lower because it's out of gas)

Probably if 819 gets hit we should work our way down...the TF is struggling here and it seems like the ES is the one holding it up so we need that to turn and then we drop.....just keep an eye on the spots I mentioned, really the one's everyone else mentioning too.

I don't know if that makes sense so to put it simply I'm looking to short around 834ish TF and really 51.50 ES ( though I 'm watching 46.5 as well)

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  #248 (permalink)
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Monthly vwap at 818.5 TF ....might get a bounce here though it looks like it might bounce off 819 ......

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  #249 (permalink)
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I'll post something later but at the moment anyway if your not short already right here at 823 is a spot to watch ...

Above that is 826ish...on the downside we have to watch what happens at 814-815.....if that area holds that would be a good spot to go long up to 850 (just a possibility, I'm really looking for the 802.5 thing to play out).

So to make a long story short watch what happens at 815.

Always remember if you look for PA...you will be ok

back later

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  #250 (permalink)
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I hope someone other than me can make sense of my ramlings and made some money today....

As far as spots to watch just refer to my earlier post but change 826 to 827.....we are sitting on it now so it's probably not real significant but....

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