This is the EMD
you can see a big fat engulfing bar(the one above the 1/25 stamp) that was confirmed and an entry generally is at the mid point of that bar....which is pretty close as of this writting about 933.5 so let's see what happens around here

Bear in mind the stop technically would be at about 938 ...I'm more interested in the TF but just wanted to point this out

I'm short TF at 795...tight stop
As it turns out that bearish PA was a trap....it didn't hurt me any becuse didn't get anything I liked around 788...garbage

For those of you that look at this thread know 794ish was a spot I said to keep an eye on...

What I wanted to say here is that now that they took out all the stops there is a fair chance we go back down through all this stuff ....got to get through 91.5 and then 787.5ish area....

For those interested it might bounce back and you could get in on a double top or failure of some kind though it might be getting late and with the FOMC deal it might not really drop much.....

It's to bad I didn't go long earlier(had some PA for that) but with what I was seeing it was to risky. There was a long trade after the news on the ES but I'll tell you about that some other time

kbit 

I'm short TF at 795...tight stop As it turns out that bearish PA was a trap....it didn't hurt me any becuse didn't get anything I liked around 788...garbage ...

Just to make sure i follow your train of thoughts, what exactly did you perceive as a trap ? was it PA around the 788 level ? I ask you this as i don't see what could be considered as a trap of any sort except for the fact we got a retracement to the RTH open (785.4).

trendisyourfriend 

Just to make sure i follow your train of thoughts, what exactly did you perceive as a trap ? was it PA around the 788 level ? I ask you this as i don't see what could be considered as a trap of any sort except for the fact we got a retracement to the RTH open (785.4).

I'm talking about that big fat engulfing bar on the EMD and that formation I pointed out this morning on the TF....it was more of a big picture type view but what I should have also mentioned is that with FOMC thing going on it wouldn't have surprised me to much if that got taken out.

Tha's why in part I picked 788 for a entry area providing there was supprting PA there. It would have been a lower risk deal with small stop had something lined up.

As to why I picked 788 it was based on the overall bullishness lately and it was at least 50%(I like to get an entry on this stuff at 50%) of that formation and we had a high there a couple days ago...On a normal day(not FOMC ) I may have just jumped on it at the 50%( I don't recommend that for others though)


I realize it may be a little confusing (I'm not a great educator) ....without you actually looking at my charts and so forth what you see on yours might not jive with mine and some of this might not make sense.

I just thought I should mention here that the spots I point out here do have some kind of significance...I don't always explain where I get them from (look at a chart and you'll see what I look at generally).
So if you get PA at these spots and for some reason your trade doesn't work you should be able to get out at even at worst because they are strong enough to pull them back for a test if nothing else.

You guys should just look at those spots on a chart(s) and see why I picked them and then you'll have a better understanding.

Also if what I babble on about doesn't make sense feel free to ask but really just focus on those spots and look for PA and you should be ok

This is one of my TF charts, just thought I might tell one way that you could play this...first of all Identify an area that you would look for a trade....in this case it was the 794 area that I mention previously.

Look for PA, which showed up in the form of a engulfing bar

Then look for confirmation...meaning the following bar is going the same direction

Then look to enter at about 2 ticks under the engulfing bar...stop 3 ticks over the high

I should mention you should have targets in mind or at least identify problem areas

A lot of times it will bounce off first target and come back to your entry so if your a one lot guy just take it at the first target or trail with tight stop....guys with multiple lots just peel something off at first target and let the rest ride while keeping your original stop.
Once it gets past the first target you can move your stop to that area...and so on with sucessive targets..

There are other ways as you all know like follwing it down with a stop above the high 2 candles back and so forth....

Ideally you want to try to hang on until you see contrary PA setting up.....

I should also mention that often times you will get contrary PA right off the bat but once you get past that your good....don't let it scare you because providing your trade is in a good spot you will win...That's why I always say that location is KEY


Ok that's it for today's Kbits Klassroom..

Well the S&P closed above the level that probably confirms its bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

“Probably” because the real level of confirmation comes at 1375 if the highest point of the neckline is included as it should be and the reason that this pattern stopped looking good to me after that October 28 vision-for-a-plan to save Europe rally. It makes for a very extreme looking pattern and so to soften it a bit, and even the 1350 used up until last week’s note, 1325 seems like a fair compromise considering the number of trendline touches that it includes.

In turn, unless the IHS goes bad to cross back below its neckline in a serious way with 1300 as one level to watch, this pattern suggests that the S&P is going to rally nearly 20% higher to that pattern’s target of 1575 with the levels suggesting that this is now the dominate technical aspect at work and especially if the S&P closes above that 1375.

That being said, this dominate technical aspect still doesn’t look good to me in the longer-term charts that highlight a severe looking Rising Wedge that is a piece of the fulfillment of the real Rising Wedge at work along with a gorgeous Head and Shoulders pattern with targets of 1075, so low you don’t want to know and 860, respectively.

Nor does it make sense to me in the context of a global economy that remains vulnerable to the eurozone credit crisis that is probably in its early stages still along with a very fragile housing market in the US and an employment situation that needs to find sustained footing in a way that puts the millions of people who have dropped out of the job search all together back to work along with those included in an artificially but still-high unemployment rate. Perhaps it is for a combination of all of these reasons among many more that the Fed elected to keep the fed funds rate near zero through 2014 and something that would seem to provide reason to worry about the health of the real economy not to mention the fact that this particular business cycle will be delayed de facto by another three years.

All of this is a grossly inadequate way of saying that the fundamentals do not support that Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern in my view, but do seem to support the slowing buying momentum that has created the Rising Wedge that could give way to outright selling if the fundamentals all of the sudden shift down with plenty of big numbers out next week here in the US to test it along with the possibility for something less-than-pleasing to come out of Europe at any time.

This is only my view, though, and it makes more sense objectively to treat that IHS as a confirmed pattern even if done with caution ahead of the S&P taking out 1375 if it should do so at all.

If it does, this is the level that will prove to me technically that the S&P is going to try for 1575 in 2012 or 2013 and my current skepticism around the possibility will be replaced by some sort of faith that the pattern will work out.

Clearly 1375 requires a bit of a climb on the part of the S&P yet with the wait carrying the potential for frustration on my part and so it seems to make sense to use the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite as previews for the S&P perhaps climbing to 1375 and this means watching to see whether these indices take out the respective high in each last spring.

If yes, the S&P will probably close above 1375 to then climb toward 1575, but if no, there could be a lot of Rising Wedge patterns confirming and fulfilling down to some degree.

It is that potential degree that would determine whether the S&P would then try to go for just bearish or simply sideways, but ahead of that even being a real possibility by a potential cross below 1250 on the S&P, it seems that gruesomely bearish may have it and a good reason to treat the S&P with some of that original care

I don't know if I should even bother to post downside spots at all any more

Looks like 800 is coming quick...sooner than I thought anyway. I remember posting a while back about not much holding it back once it got past 765 but I thought it might move up and down a little more ....

Anyway remember that 801.5 is a spot to keep an eye on ...don't know what will happen exactly once it hits 800.
it could drop right off the 800 and dance around or maybe get a decent drop off 800 and come back up and make you think it's going to blow through 801.5....or the way things are going it might just blow through everything(unlikely though)

I'll have to spend some more time to see some spots beyond that. With Bernanke considering more easing who knows where we could end up.

I saw over on Bugsbunnys thread he's thinking around 850 area bigger picture wise but when I saw that I thought more into the 60s but anyway that's a ways off.

Nothing special to report...only thing of note really is that the ES bottomed out on the exact spot it TESTED after the FOMC news which on my chart is 1309.25.

I don't focus on the significance of this really but you could consider this as a pivot of sorts.....if we get below that and hold it could drop about 20 points from there...well works it's way down anyway.

On the TF it did not come down to it's "pivot" though it was close.

I guess the point is it could rise from those spots to get higher...namely 800 on TF so look to long around there...I would watch around 785.5 and 788.5

I would say the actuall FOMC number is 786.4 on the TF so at this point 788.5 might be the best spot to focus on.

Like I said a million times just look for PA you like at those spots and act accordingly.

The above is a daily chart.

Just so you get a glimpse of some of the things I look at...Notice the blue line which is at about 801.5 and further notice that it is a S/R spot (if you look at your chart you can see even more touches on both sides).

Take note of the 2 red lines...if you measure the disance between the two and add that amount to the top line number and you end up in the same area (801.5 area)

So as you can see that should be significant.