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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes
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TF thread (Russell 2000) ... anything goes

  #181 (permalink)
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A couple spots to keep in mind on the topside....787-788 and around 794ish and then 801.5 (these #s should do something...look at a chart and see if you agree)
On the downside I'm still a bit interested in the 772.5 area and before that around 777.

It pretty much again looks like it will keep grinding up....I only have a weak argument for a decent pullback tonight....that being some weak looking PA up here and the thought that it needs to drop to 777 before it can rise some more based on past experience but.....

Anyway will try to post something if I get a better idea

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  #182 (permalink)
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From the ever bearish pt

....bearish Rising Wedges that should give way to strong selling pressures any day now.

One is the fact that my analysis will end up missing the mark and the Rising Wedge in equities will simply turn into the gruesomely bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern detailed here many times over the last nearly five months and a pattern that will take the S&P close to 1600 if successful. Another was the fact that something about the current market reminds me of August 2008 when markets simply rebounded after the May, June and July rout without really “deserving” to do so.

Should the S&P take out 1325 and then 1350, it will prove technically that the S&P is not exhausted but beginning to breakout into an extension of the cyclical bull market that began in 2009 and maybe this happens.

In looking at the chart from 2008 below, though, the current bearish Rising Wedge built of August through today should not be counted out until the S&P takes out those levels if it should do so.


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Interestingly, it is the trading from the end of 2007 into May 2008 that makes the better comparison to the last six months rather than that of July and August 2008.

Such a comparison of winter and spring 2008 has been floating around for many months and made by some excellent bank technicians and it does not hold as well now as it would have appeared to have held just two to three months ago, but there’s definitely something there still and it is worth paying attention to unless the S&P rises above those aforementioned levels.

After all, technical comparisons are never perfect, just close, and there is no doubt that the first Rising Wedge above led to the second Rising Wedge that led to a drop that nobody needs to reminded of.


Clearly, the S&P’s Rising Wedge is on the cusp of failure as it trades close to 1325 and 1350, but it should not be counted out until it actually fails considering the possible Head and Shoulder pattern that’s been shown in the three-year chart many times and a pattern that would be an all-time classic if its right shoulder was at any level between today’s close and 1350.



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Another reason to not count out the Rising Wedge in the S&P and the other equity indices is the fact that there are a lot individual equity charts that look awful and as though the companies represented would miss or lower guidance in this current earnings season even though that is not happening mainly. Maybe those bad looking charts somehow transform into something positive on weeks if not months of consolidation but as likely is something macro out there that is showing in the charts driven by all of the information and psychology of investors collectively.

Until that bad look goes away even as stocks go up, it seems fair to believe that something bad is coming and technically the only positive cure is consolidation. Otherwise it seems likely that there will be some big chunky declines ahead and probably in the first quarter of this year but maybe as late as May.

After all there was no Rising Wedge on the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern of 2010 as shown below.


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Rather there was just the sideways consolidation of a nice Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern as was the case in 2009 as well.

Be that as it may, there is no question that the S&P’s current Rising Wedge may be about to support a breakout into a renewed bull market and something that would cause the bigger Head and Shoulders to fail as well.

Above 1325 and then 1350 and such failures will have been proven basically, but below 1292 and 1277 and perhaps the Rising Wedge will attempt to confirm at 1250 for a target of 1075.

It is such a possibility that would suggest this is 2008 all over again with some “unexpected” Lehman-style event ahead and probably a good reason to continue to treat the S&P with care.

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  #183 (permalink)
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From ZH


The Stock Ramp Is Just More Deja Vu "Insanity" Warns Morgan Stanley




When Morgan Stanley now agrees with most of what Zero Hedge has been saying (especially when it earlier announced that a short covering rally in the EURUSD is imminent, as we have been warning for the past two weeks), it may be time to get concerned.

From Morgan Stanley: "Most investors I speak with concur with the view that growth is likely to be below trend for the next several years thanks to deleveraging and a more stringent regulatory environment. However, there is quite a bit of excitement over the probability of QE3 being implemented at some point during 2Q.

Exhibit 5 shows just how excited stock investors seem to be getting over this prospect, especially in relation to their fixed income peers. But, this is almost always the case when animal spirits get going. The last time I pointed out such a divergence (October of last year), the SPX had a swift 10% correction over the proceeding 3 weeks. I have no idea whether we are likely to get such a correctly immediately, but I sure can’t rule it out and I am pretty confident you won’t be able to get out of the way unscathed.

Just another reason for why I want to be paired off right now." Also, this time will never be different: "Didn’t we learn anything from the Japanese experience of the past 20 years! I might be more on board with the program if I thought we were making real progress on the things that matter for sustainable organic growth. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it."

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
Insanity
Wasn’t it just a year ago that we had the exact same set-up? Growth was slowing, Greece was close to default and there was unrest in Middle East. I guess one could argue China is no longer tightening policy and Europe is closer to the end of their crisis.

On the other hand, earnings growth in the US is now decelerating and likely to get worse over the next several quarters. Furthermore, the political environment in the US has rarely been more charged and bipartisan than it is today. The S&P500 is trading almost exactly where it was at this time last year, but with a lower multiple.

This is the direct result of higher earnings in 2011 than 2010 but with the prospect of lower growth going forward. This makes sense to me. Most investors I speak with concur with the view that growth is likely to be below trend for the next several years thanks to deleveraging and a more stringent regulatory environment.

However, there is quite a bit of excitement over the probability of QE3 being implemented at some point during 2Q. Exhibit 5 shows just how excited stock investors seem to be getting over this prospect, especially in relation to their fixed income peers. But, this is almost always the case when animal spirits get going.

The last time I pointed out such a divergence (October of last year), the SPX had a swift 10% correction over the proceeding 3 weeks. I have no idea whether we are likely to get such a correctly immediately, but I sure can’t rule it out and I am pretty confident you won’t be able to get out of the way unscathed. Just another reason for why I want to be paired off right now.

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I’d like to end this week’s note with a quote from Albert Einstein who said “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different outcome.” I feel like this is exactly where we are today with respect to the policy choices being made all over the world.

Do we really think the result of QE3 is going to be any different than QE2? Or that the second European LTRO is going to end up resolving Europe’s solvency problems simply because the Fed is now supporting a larger effort via its open swaps line? Didn’t we learn anything from the Japanese experience of the past 20 years! I might be more on board with the program if I thought we were making real progress on the things that matter for sustainable organic growth. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it.

While I am watching many things to determine if the facts are actually changing, there is one metric in particular that has to turn for me to get more constructive fundamentally. I am talking about personal income growth excluding government transfers. Until this shows some signs of life, I will remain highly skeptical that additional policy stimulus will end differently than what we have recently experienced.

Exhibit 6 tells the sad story of our current plight and how this current rally will likely end. Until then, I will look forward to my next lunch with Adam Parker.

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Average:

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  #184 (permalink)
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Worth paying attn to...From pt

Well the risk assets have been more than afloat so far in 2012, but look at what’s happening out at sea.


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Yes, that does appear to be a more than 50% drop in the Baltic Dry Index that tracks international shipping rates of dry cargoes at sea – iron, ore, coal, steel, grains, fertilizers and the like – and something that may suggest the world is not awash in economic recovery as some may say it is.

Often, changes in ocean freight rates act as a leading indicator of the health of the global economy and so it may be worth watching when the BDI drops by 1000 points in a month to score a 50% fall that recalls shades of 2008 when the index plunged from 12000 in May 2008 to less than 700 in December 2008.

Interestingly, the Baltic Dry Index started to decline again significantly in the summer of 2010 and well ahead of last August when the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the other risk assets corrected as shown below.


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In fact, the BDI’s bearish lead on the Dow is almost absurd and it seems to tell us that QE2 never hit the high seas having preferred the dry land asset inflation train.

What seems to make this interesting is that the BDI appears to be speaking to some real world economic softness as the risk assets march higher on economic recovery hopes and a march that may be forced back down whether some QE3 comes in 2012 or not.

Now maybe some of the BDI’s recent weakness has to do with some highly local events, but it is hard to believe that a more than 50% drop in international shipping rates in about a month is not somehow providing a picture of what’s going on with the international economy.

Should this prove true to any degree, it seems the BDI may have the lead, and perhaps a very early one, on the Dow.

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  #185 (permalink)
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I'm to lazy to go over everything tonight but those spots I identified in post 181 are still pretty much in effect so keep your eyes open.....

The bulls got a little shock today so at least now we might go up and down a little instead of just grinding up continually....will post more thoughts later

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  #186 (permalink)
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I'm a little nervous about 772.5....so be careful with that one....it's looking like it could visit the 767 area so keep an eye on that one.

Just remember you should look for some kind of PA around these spots before jumping in...that's the safest way

On the ES watch 1298.75....but that 1300 area is a bit sloppy....as of this writting the monthly vwap is at 1296.25 so.....


Last edited by kbit; January 24th, 2012 at 09:07 AM.
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  #187 (permalink)
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Kind of looking like 784.5 might cap this off today.....not 100% sure on that but keep it in mind.

on the ES 1310.75 might hold it ....maybe 1311.75

Look at your charts , see if you agree ....I could be way off on this one but those spots should mean something..,

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bigger picture wise we could continue to just make new highs in the coming days...but I will continue to take it day by day and see how it goes

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  #188 (permalink)
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I guess apple(anticipation) pushed everything up at the end of the day...I didn't figure on that and I think that's why those spots I pointed out for a possible top had a hard time holding and as you know were taken out.

Anyway 794ish and then 801.5 are still areas to keep in mind.
it may drop down a little in which case keep an eye on 788 ......further down watch 784ish

Should we drop below 784 I'll have to do some homework and figure some more spots....I'll post something later

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  #189 (permalink)
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Wanted to give you guys a heads up....

Just noticing the way things laid out last night....looks like a possible reversal here that might push this thing down.
It's still a bit early and I want to see some confirmation but.....

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  #190 (permalink)
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I didn't elaborate much in the previous post but at this point you probably want to view this as a head and shoulders deal....
if it breaks below 781ish it's likely to go down....

I can kind of seeing this going up so I will focus on a short unless it gets over 789....in other words looking for some kind of PA I like to try a short but if it gets to 789 I will write off the idea.

I don't like the breakout stuff...I want to get it at the best possible spot so somewhere around 788 would be nice providing I see something to jump on.....

Just a last thought, this could be just a trap and if that is the case it's no big deal if you wait for PA you won't get burned...no PA no trade.

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